CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: DAQMAN ANTE-POST: Daqman has two ante-post bets on BETDAQ this morning, as he previews next week’s opening day one week in advance, with See How They Won stats and the latest market movers.
SOUTHWELL SAVES THE DAY: Two turf cards washed out on Tuesday but Southwell again saves the day. Two bets from DAQMAN.
STRONG CLAIM FOR CHELTENHAM
1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)
Ireland has won 11 out of 17, including a Willie Mullins hat-trick but his favourites sequence collapsed first to Nicky Henderson (Altior 2016), then to Gordon Elliott last year.
It’s six-year-olds 5, five-year-olds 4 in the decade. Winners had usually had three or four hurdles starts; 12 out of 17 had raced in bumpers.
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies: Getabird and Samcro, with Aincheá (reserve), but all are engaged in the Ballymore on the Wednesday, for which Samcro is favourite.
Betdaq value: Claimantakinforgan, generally 12-1 but as low as 10-1 in places with the layers, was 21.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange last night but 17.5 this morning. I had 3pts to win 50.
Money horse: Kalashnikov, now generally 5-1
2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy)
Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Altior made it a hat-trick of odds-on winners (and five out of six) with three for Nicky Henderson and two for Willie Mullins. Nine of the last 11 had won or been placed over 19f.
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies: Footpad
Betdaq value: Brain Power, generally 7-1 in the fixed-odds lists, but 6-1 in a place, was 9.4 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange
Money horse Saint Calvados is 3-1 and 7-2 with the bookies, 4.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Ultima Handicap Chase)
Nine out of 12 winners carried 11st 3lb or less; 12 out of the last 17 less than 11st. But, as in all handicaps, the trend is for higher weights: three of the last four winners carried 11st 6lb to 11st 12lb.
Eight of the last 10 were aged seven or eight.
It’s an even better race this year with the 2017 winning rating worth only 11st 9lb this time around.
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle)
Horses aged six and seven have won eight out of 10 but Willie Mullins is four out of seven.
Faugheen is back again after winning it in 2015. But Buveur d’Air bidding for back to back success for Nicky Henderson (who is 3-9) is odds on.
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Buveur d’Air
4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares Hurdle)
Willie Mullins had an incredible run of eight straight winners, all favourite bar one, five of them odds on, all largely due to Quevega’s six-timer.
Betdaq value Though Apple’s Jade is odds on with bookies and BETDAQ alike, the rest of the market has massive value on the exchange when compared with the layers.
Benie Des Dieux is 6-1 generally but 8.4 on BETDAQ; Vroum Vroum Mag, 5-1 and 6-1, was 9.4 last night, 8.6 this morning; Let’s Dance, as low as 5-1 with bookmakers, is 14.5 on the exchange.
La Bague Au Roi, only 8-1 with two big firms, was 16.5, nearly double their odds early mouse, but 12.5 with BETDAQ as I write.
4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (NH Chase)
Steer clear of champion trainer, Paul Nicholls: despite 17 starters, 12 at the forefront of the market, he’s managed only a couple of places. Gordon Elliott has won three times since 2011
Daqman’s Fortune Cookies Al Boum Photo, Braqeur d’Or
5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Novices’ Handicap Chase)
You want horses aged six and seven (9 out of 12), with three to five runs over fences (10out of 12).
KATIE’S DAY IN THE SOUTHWELL SAND
Southwell have centre stage to themselves once again today after the jumps cards at Exeter and Newcastle were abandoned.
2.20 Southwell I want to be against Something Lucky in the opening sprint. He undeniably deserves a win after three consecutive seconds but the handicapper has reacted by putting him up another pound and he now races off a mark of 69. At the beginning of the year he was racing off a mark of 50 and it might just be that the grey has hit the ceiling in terms of his current mark. Certainly at around 2.64 on BETDAQ he doesn’t make much appeal in a race of fine margins.
A better proposition might be the Scott Dixon trained Crosse Fire who can reverse course and distance form with Archimedes who beat him three quarters of a length last month.
Despite the non runner, there are still the three places up for grabs on BETDAQ so I will cover the WIN 20 bet with a stakes saver on the place market.
3.20 Southwell Has taken on a much different complexion with the absence of likely hot favourite Cousin Khee who was on a hat-trick mission.
Last year’s winner Samtu bolted up by four lengths at 20/1 12 months ago but was a little disappointing last time out over course and distance.
Katie Gale might be the one. She ran well over a longer trip here last time out behind Cousin Khee and with that one on the sidelines can take full advantage.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Southwell bets staked to win 20, ante-post win 50)
BET 4.0pts win and 5.0pts place (stakes saver) CROSSE FIRE (2.20 Southwell)
BET 10.3pts win (nap) KATIE GALE (3.20 Southwell)
ANTE-POST (win 50): 3pts win CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN (1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday)
ANTE-POST (win 50): 6pts win BRAIN POWER (2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday)
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