DAQMAN’S BOYS PROFIT FROM 15 WINNERS: Daqman made it 15 winning bets in six days, peaking on Wednesday at 190 points profit and four winning naps, when Dontminddboys (WON 11-4) scored at Towcester yesterday.
AW FINALS: VALUE CLASH WITH PRICEWISE: Starting today, his fully-analysed meetings will have selections for each race, with value bets staked. Next week he will detail his full betting strategy and staking plan for the 2018 Flat season. Says Daqman, leading Pricewise 3-0:: I see that he is disguised in a wig today, as he faces defeat for a 10th consecutive season against my bets: 2.00, 3.05, 3.40, 4.10 Lingfield; 3.20 Newcastle.
DERBY, GOLD CUPS AND GRAND NATIONALS: The show gets on the road again this weekend, after a big-race lull since Daqman’s second successive Lincoln winner (Bravery 20-1, Addeybb 9-2), starting with Lingfield today. Look out for value bets from:
TODAY: AW championships at Lingfield
TOMORROW: Dirt Derby and turf Gold Cup at Meydan
SUNDAY: Ryanair Gold Cup launches Fairyhouse festival
MONDAY: Irish Grand National and seven English cards
TUESDAY: Three Graded races at Fairyhouse Day 3
SUNDAY WEEK: Group 3 Flat racing at Naas
APRIL 12-14: Grand National meeting at Aintree
ECHO OF SPRINGTIME SUCCESS
1.30 Lingfield (AW Apprentice Championship) The second, fourth and sixth last year are looking for better luck: War Glory (squeezed through narrow gap, just held), Take The Helm (badly away) and Suzi’s Connoisseur (came wide).
Take The Helm reversed the placings with War Glory over the same CD 13 days later. No wonder the handicapper now assesses them to finish level.
Fastest horse in the race is El Hombre, who has won four times under Rowan Scott. He goes well fresh but can he step up from 6f?
Gallipoli ran a cracker first run back, but then he always does and first-time hood helped him, though he failed to win.
Silent Echo couldn’t get a run when close-up sixth to Eljaddaaf over CD last month and is 7lb better off here. His success (for Roger Charlton) was in the Spring last year and you’d expect him to have won first run back.
But Peter Hedger was out of form and Silent Echo did well enough from a high stall (he won here from 3 last May and is now in 2).
Irish raider Master Speaker bids for a hat-trick under Robbie Downey but his form beyond 6f is 432202000000.
FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS
2.00 Lingfield (AW Marathon Championship) Ralph Beckett won this in 2016 and Mountain Bell has twice scored after a break.
He had Watwersmeet and Lored George third and fourth at Newcastle in December but meets them on the same terms today.
Watersmeet has landed a hat-trick since then but the handicapper insists that he hasn’t improved as much as a single pound: he stays on the same 106 mark.
Red Verdon beat Mountain Bell at Kempton earlier (1m 4f) but steps up to 2m here for the first time at the age of five. He’s going for a hat-trick today but is another who hasn’t improved one iota for his recent success.
Lord George has again been beaten by Watersmeet and only a first-time visor coaxed him to the winner’s enclosure (Kempton, January).
Has never won this high in the handicap, and is well held by Soldier in Action (Kempton, November). I prefer the 5.9 Mountain Bell in BETDAQ (107% orange).
FIND ZEST IN BETDAQ ORANGE
2.30 Lingfield (Fillies and Mares AW Championship) There’s not much between Summer Icon and odds-on-defeated Diagnostic on their first and third in the Wolverhampton qualifier (January) but the grey Diagnostic is a year younger and less exposed (five AW runs to his rival’s 15) than Summer Icon, who was beaten by Zest here in February.
Well back was Carolinae, who had also been behind Soul Silver at Chelmsford. Collateral form makes Zest and Soul Silver ‘the same horse’ in the ratings, but the official handicapper has Zest 3lb higher.
All are behind the 97 given to Mia Tesoro, placed in the first four in three consecutive Listed races here in the winter but dropping back to a mile here and, despite that 97 mark, has never won in a grade higher than class 5.
2.45 Newcastle Chaplin Bay’s AW rating was raised to the level of his turf figure (74) after he won over CD here last April (Amood missed the break; hampered), his first outing of the 2017.
He was well backed last night to do the trick again, though so, too, was the three-year-old Outside Inside, a Gowran Park maiden winner switched to Mark Johnston
Welliesinthewater has won six times between February and May, and was marginally favourite this morning in a 107% BETDAQ orange. I took 7.6 Chaplin Bay.
KACHY’S 100 PER CENT CHANCE
3.05 Lingfield (AW Sprint Championship) My Early Birds horses to follow put up City Light, having heard from my man in the long grass of winter improvement and a great start to the season at Chantilly. There was 18.5 this morning.
The Lincoln winner, Addeybb, and Doncaster Mile scorer, Zabeel Prince, were in the ,list; so I’m hopeful a third bird can fly in. But the draw could be a curve ball.
The one-two by stalls in the Sprint’s four seasons have been 5-4, 5-13, 2-1 and 7-5, so Double Up (out of 8) and City Light (9) are given a lot to do.
Last year’s one-two, Kimberella and Gracious John, from 5 and 4, are now in 4 and 6, most helpful of all to Kimberella. Gracious John is better over the minimum trip.
I would like to say that Gulliver travels well (!) but he had to be scrubbed along on the last day and Intisaab swooped late.
That was Gulliver’s second defeat by Intisaab since the autumn but both were behind Kachy and Kimberella in a blanket finish for the Lingfield qualifier for this final, back in February.
Kachy landed a gamble from stall 11 that day, having won here from 9 in January, giving lumps of weight away. So it’s hard to oppose him now from stall 5, with his stable getting 100% out of its horses, according to the Racing Post.
In fact, Gifted Master is officially rated 2lb higher, winner of three from four including the Listed Golden Rose here in November (Intisaab fourth)
That he hasn’t been seen since wouldn’t normally be a problem (he’s won three times in a row after breaks) but his yard has been missing strike in the last fortnight (results 02324)
COSMO LOOKS VALUE AT 7.0
3.20 Newcastle Not much here on CD form of February between Lexington Law (winner) and Royal Reserve (second, short of room), but trainer Alan King tries to swing it Lexington’s way with a 5lb claimer on board.
Last year’s winning rainer, Marco Botti, saddles Al Hamdany, out of the first four on AW only once in 12 starts. He’s a few pounds high, but this is his first start on Tapeta.
Al Hamany is better off at the weights with another one of Alan King’s, Cosmeapolitan, who beat him at Kempton but ‘Cosmo’ won very cosily that day.
Koeman, who was third, subsequently beat Island Brave and Amazing Red at Lingfield. Royal Reserve also has collateral form wi h Island Brave and Lexington Law.
Revising the ratings according to today’s weights, I get five horses within a couple of pounds parameter!
But picking for the Pricewise contest, I’ll go for Cosmeapolitan, 7.00 on BETDAQ this morning (109% Orange)
LEAVING THEM BREATHLESS
3.40 Lingfield (AW Three-year-olds Championship) Only Corinthia Knight (holds Lake Volta), Count Otto and never Back Down have scored at this class-2 level.
But there’s nothing much between Count Ottoland Helvetian and the filly Rock On Baileys – on a sixtimer today – gets a handy 5lb allowance.
Never Back Down beat Corinthia Knight at Wolver but has he made the same progress as Archie Watson’s hat-trick winner, who was being heavily backed as I write (in to 3.0).
Now I’m a great Roger Charlton fan and like the way he’s brought along Breathless Times, twice landing the odds in low-class contests with the minimum of effort: 6.2 looked big.
I take it punters were worried about his high dfaw but the 6,000-euro bargain yearling (resold for 150,000) is bred to get further and I can see him eating up the Polytrack when others have cried enoiugh
ARCANADA ALL THE WAY..
4.10 Lingfield (AW Mile Championship) Captain Joy won this in 2016 from last year’s winner, Sovereign Debt, who beat Gabrial a couple of times in the summer.
No wonder Tracey Collins brings her Joy over from The Curragh, back to form on the last day, but nine years old now and very easy to back this morning (21.0 in the BETDAQ orange as I write).
If you rely on the ratings, as you can in an all-aged conditions race, you look no further than Second Thought (109) and Arcanada (107)
Well drawn for front running today, -Arcanada, who has beaten both Gabrial and Sacred Act, comes out about the same horse as Mr Owen, who had King Malpic a long way behind in a Deauville Listed.
And Mr Owen was giving away 2lb when Second Thought beat him less than a length at Wolverhampton in November. It looks very tight at the top but Second Thought has won only once at a mile and I shall take 3.85 Arcanada to light those fireworks.
UTMOST MAY BE AN IMPROVER
4.40 Lingfield (Middle Distance Championship) Here’s Mr Owen, the horse we’ve just been talking about, first past the post in the Winter Derby but disqualified in favour of Master The World.
Can they repeat that finish? The form says that several of their opponents could come out best on the form of the trials for that race and this. Petite Jack beat them all in December.
And the real question is, who is on form today, and who left their form behind in the Winter Derby? The benchmark horse may be Victory Bond.
He was squeezed for room, unlucky to be beaten by Master The World in November, but was second again, unable to catch Utmost, in February.
Utmost, lightly raced and only four, might be worth the 8.2 on BETDAQ to turn around the Winter Derby form.
DAQMAN’S VALUE BETS (all staked to win 20)
2.00 Lingfield
BET 4pts win MOUNTAIN BELL
2.45 Newcastle
BET 3pts win CHAPLIN BAY
3.05 Lingfield
BET 10pts win KACHY
BET 1pt win and place CITY LIGHT
3.20 Newcastle
BET 3.25pts win COSMEAPOLITAN
3.40 Lingfield
BET 4pts win BREATHLESS TIMES
4.10 Lingfield
BET 7pts win (nap) ARCANADA
4.40 Lingfield
BET 2.75pts win UTMOST
OTHER SELECTIONS
LINGFIELD 1.30 Silent Echo, 2.30 Zest
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