GET ON 2,000 GUINEAS AT BETDAQ 12.5: Daqman rates a 12.5 offer on BETDAQ as likely to produce some ‘overs’ from an ante-post bet on Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas. He also completes his ‘see how they won’ feature on the weekend’s first Classics with a look at the 1,000 Guineas stats.
140-1 MAY-DAY TREBLE IN 20 MINUTES? Today’s racing is modest, so Daqman has a 20-minute fling in the three better races at Nottingham, Yarmouth and Brighton, hoping for three doubles and a 141-1 treble (at time of writing) from Daq Multiples. Say the layers: May Day, May day, May day!
2,000 GUINEAS: DON’T BE WITHOUT
Four times popular. That’s a 2,000 Guineas colt, standing at 12.5 in the BETDAQ market as I write, so seems sure to reduce in the price of the offers before Saturday’s race. That’s all you want for an ante-post.
You should get the ‘overs’ from Without Parole. Because he is a Frankel. Because he is trained by John Gosden. Because he is likely to be ridden by Frankie Dettori.
The fourth ‘because’ is that he has already run and won a race which, after the welly-boot winter, could mean a huge amount.
Gustav Klimt, Masar and James Garfield have won recognised trials but, for an ante-post flutter, you don’t want ‘recognised’. That means the world and his wife know about it.
Without Parole remains a ‘hidden horse’, even though Frankie gave him a full trial education by pushing him out for his win at Yarmouth.
And Without Parole suggested he will get further than the mile which, again, is what you want when there is cut in the ground.
As we saw yesterday, colts coming fresh to the race do best in the 2,000 Guineas, but not this year. The winner seems sure to come from those who have raced, as often happens in the 1,000.
1,000 GUINEAS: SEE HOW THEY WON
Guineas all-change! The facts and stats for Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas don’t usually correspond to the colts’ Classic (see yesterday’s column).
The fillies need more and different preparation. For instance, seven of the 10 winners in the decade had raced in their year.
One or two shocks (confirmed by very low ratings) came when fillies improved dramatically through the winter. Hard to tell which ones; Homecoming Queen (2012) had had 13 races as a two-year-old, when she won nothing stronger than a Listed.
Ghanaati (2009) had raced just twice, winner of a BETDAQ-sponsored maiden stakes on AW at Kempton Park in the October.
Ghanaati is an extreme case of a late developer (first race as a juvenile in the October), whereas more than one winner had started out in the previous Spring.
FAVOURITE Only three of the 10 winners in the decade were SP favourite.
WINNER’S PREVIOUS SUCCESS One win (2), two (6), three (2).
TRIALS TRAIL Two-Year-Old winner of Moyglare (2), Cheveley Park Stakes (1), Fillies Mile (1) and Oh So Sharp Stakes (1)
Placed same year in Nell Gwyn Stakes (2), Won or placed Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial (2); Listed win same year (1); third and unplaced Prix Imprudence(2)
RATING AT THE ‘OFF’ 85 – 99 – 106 – 111 – 112 – 107 – 106
TRAINER Aidan O’Brien (3). JOCKEY: Ryan Moore (3).
DRAW Seven out of 10 came out of stalls 2 to 8.
A BETDAQ 5.5 OFFER SEDUCES ME
3.35 Nottingham I’m going to try for three winners in 20 minutes, starting with this 3.35 Nottingham and going on to the 3.45 Yarmouth and 3.55 Brighton.
This class 3 represents a drop in grade for Seduce Me (5.5 on BETDAQ), not disgraced in the Spring Mile at Doncaster.
Seduce Me is ridden by the leading jockey here at Colwick Park, Jim Crowley, whose 29% was certainly worth backing, since he shows a level-stakes return of more than 60 points to a single-unit stake.
Red Tea is favourite on the strength of her second in a big field at Newmarket a fortnight back but all her success has come on firmish ground.
Prying Pandora was well beaten a grade lower over today’s course and distance in April.
3.45 Yarmouth The class-3 race at Yarmouth could be fought out by Ripp Orf and Salt Whistle Bay, who improved from a 65 to an 82 in the autumn. Stable has just had a winner.
Chris Wall (Mountain Rescue) is badly out of form, while Majestic Moon and Suzi’s Connoisseur are old-timers. Afandem’s best form is as a sprinter and London has a poor strike-rate.
Ripp Orf is not easy to win with (four seconds from last five starts) so I’ll have my pound on Salt Whistle Bay at BETDAQ 3.6 offers
3.55 Brighton Mick Channon could win with the stable cat right now! Having said that, Murphy’s Law says that I’ll pick the wrong one of his seven runners today in choosing 7.2 offer Caravela in this race.
Mick’s form figures are 323213111312, and Caravela looks let off by the handicapper, getting nearly a stone from the likely favourite, Precious Ramotswe.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 20 points, except ante-post)
3.35 Nottingham
BET 4.5pts win (nap) SEDUCE ME
3.45 Yarmouth
BET 7.5pts win SALT WHISTLE BAY
3.55 Brighton
BET 3.25pts win CARAVELA
MAY-DAY DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles, 1pt treble, the three above
ANTE-POST (win 50): 2.000 Guineas
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4.35pts win WITHOUT PAROLE
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