BIG-ODDS BETS ON 1,000 GUINEAS AND DERBY: Daqman’s ABC guides are going for a double today, after Saxon Warrior ticked all the boxes, top of his Thursday horse-by-horse analysis of the stats and facts. Today’s 1,000 Guineas verdict went to Anna Nerium, a 15.5 offer in the BETDAQ orange for the first fillies’ Classic this morning. Daqman has another filly at 17.0 this morning, and a daring ante-post bet for the Derby at 25-1.
HE GOES AGAINST THE CROWD: 65 POINTS UP: What is Daqman’s authority to go against the crowd? One comparison is that he is 16-5 up on Pricewise of the Racing Post in their value bets and 65 points clear to a single-unit level stake (Daqman +16.00, Pricewise –49.25). Incredibly, he shows 16 points profit AT SP on all his value tips, with Pricewise nearly 50 points down.
LION ROARS WARNING FOR THE DERBY
I had the winner-in-three of the 2,000 Guineas. The trio also contained the Derby winner. But my early Epsom vote this morning is not for yesterday’s hero, Saxon Warrior.
The Guineas is often the best Derby trial but the winner has done the double only twice since Nashwan in 1989 (Sea The Stars and Camelot).
The Derby is usually won by a late developer with stamina, rarely by a same-season miler, so looking behind the Guineas winner could be the answer to Epsom.
Running on at the end, shrinking the gap between himself and Craven Stakes conqueror Masar by eight of the nine lengths that separated them at Newmarket, was Roaring Lion.
Given the extra quarter-mile of the Dante Stakes, he would have been on top of Saxon Warrior, as he was in the Racing Post Trophy last year, when they finished close together, one two.
Now, with Saxon Warrior around 11-10 for the Derby and Roaring Lion huge (25-1 Ladbrokes but 12-1 Hills) you have to grab a bit of value before York. Make an offer in the BETDAQ orange; you could get almost anything at this stage.
I’LL HAPPILY TAKE A SHORT PRICE
The missing link. No, not between humans and apes; we see those on TV every day as presidents, politicians and preachers.
I’m talking about the draw factor for today’s 1,000 Guineas.
I warned earlier in the week that stalls 2 to 8 have a 70% strike rate, which indicates Wild Illusion (1), Dan’s Dream (2), Happily (4), Laurens (5) and Anna Nerium (7).
But the 2,000 Guineas yesterday was won down the middle. The far rail soon faded, and the stands side, where Roaring Lion was trying to reach the leaders, was pretty dead.
Consequently the result by stall was 9 beat 10, 14, 11, 12, which today would indicate Soliloquy (9), Altyn Orda (12) and I Can Fly (14), if they can get something to follow in the early stages.
Soliloquy Supplemented after winning the Nell Gwyn last month, seemingly surprising Charlie Appleby, whose string has been in fantastic form. Related on the dam’s side to Australian.
It’s another furlong to go here and Altyn Orda, who chased Soliloquy home, could make the necessary improvement.
Altyn Orda Oh So Sharp Stakes win and Nell Gwyn second puts her in the top bracket. Her dam is by Giant’s Causeway and a half-sister to Classic winner, Sleepytime, and to a Sussex Stakes winner.
I Can Fly was third to Altyn Orda in the Oh So Sharp Stakes and is one of four trying to complete a Guineas double for Aidan O’Brien
Happily O’Brien’s Moyglare winner performed the rare feat of beating the colts in the Prix Lagardere, the old Grand Criterium. Third home was yesterday’s 2,000 placed, Masar.
Wild Illusion The Moyglare runner-up to Happily was another O’Brien filly, Magical, only fourth to Wild Illusion, winner of the Prix Marcel Boussac, the fillies equivalent to the Lagardere at the Arc meeting. Her action suggests she needs rain.
Laurens After that, Magical the benchmark, was only fourth to Laurens in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket. Laurens was completing a double with the May Hill her first leg. Looks a potential stayer.
Dan’s Dream supplemented after winning the Fred Darling as one of the fittest fillies at the time. Trainer Mick Channon has been scoring freely this season. Back of the net?
Anna Nerium In my ABC of boxes ticked, I reported that trainer Richard Hannon admitted: ‘She hasn’t grown much and I didn’t expect her to win (the Free Handicap) like that!’
As in Happily’s Lagardere, another filly had beaten the colts. Enable beat them all in King George and Arc last year. Is there another one strong enough?
1,000 VERDICT: Sister to Guineas winners, Gleneagles and Marvellous, I will Happily take a short price (3.35 as I write) on the news I have from Ballydoyle.
Every filly in the race is entitled to improve and we’ve had winners at 16-1, 20-1 and 25-1 in the decade.
Altyn Orda, with Frankie Dettori booked, and 17.0 in the BETDAQ orange, could give me the one-two today.
Charlie Appleby must surely get some reward from his two fine Dubawis, Soliloquy and Wild Illusion. I’ll take Soliloquy on the faster ground.
ORDER IN: 1 Happily, 2 Altyn Orda, 3 Soliloquy.
I’M ADAMANT ABOUT BRONTE THREAT
1.50 Newmaket Adamant (3.95 BETDAQ) was the ‘moral’ at Newbury, unlucky not to overhaul the lightly-weighted winner, with today’s extra quarter-mile sure to suit.
The cleverly named Mount Nelson colt, Duke Of Bronte, a 9.0 offer, has bags of stamina in his blood and is a late developer.
The Grand Visir is weighted to reverse last year’s form with the Duke but was easy to back this morning.
Tribal Warrior needs to find more, raised in grade. UAE Prince has to calm down. Celestial Sphere has shown his best form on AW.
2.20 Newmarket (Dahlia Stakes) In its third years of Group-2 status, Wuheida is the first filly to try to defy a penalty but beating Rhododendron in the Breeders Cup suggests she is well up to it.
The ground will suit Tisbutadream, and Golden Legend has won first time out for the last two seasons, but Wuheida has supernap status on form (10 wins you 7 this morning in the BETDAQ orange).
2.25 Newmarket Richard Fahey’s pair, Mr Lupton (last year) and Eastern Impact (2015), have both won this race before.
A gelding op seems to have returned to Medicine Jack at least some of the ability that enabled him to win the 2016 Railway Stakes, top two-year-olds’ trial.
Gifted Master usually needs a run, as at Lingfield in March to prepare for this. The 13.5 BETDAQ offer kept hot company last season and is the danger to Ekhtiyaar (7.2 offers).
Victory Angel has been well backed for this but was miles behind stablemate Ekhtiyaar on the July Course when racing on a sound surface last season. Magical Memory may also need some cut in the ground.
DAQMAN BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 10pts win ADAMANT
BET 3.75pts win DUKE OF BRONTE
2.20 Newmarket (SP)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win WUHEIDA
2.55 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 5pts win EKHTIYAAR
BET 2.5pts win GIFTED MASTER
3.35 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 12pts win HAPPILY
BET 1.8pts win and 3pts place (to win 10) ALTYN ORDA
Epsom Derby ante-post (win 100)
TON-UP BET 4pts win ROARING LION
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