DERBY COUNTDOWN: ONE COLT TICKS ALL THE BOXES: Two fillies shared maximum marks in Daqman’s ABC of stats for Friday’s Epsom Oaks yesterday. Today his analysis of Saturday’s Derby field produces just one that ticks all the boxes.
THREE BETS ON THURSDAY: DAQMAN has three selections on Thursday including a nap at Lingfield where the ground is now good to soft after a deluge this week.
DERBY ABC: STATS GO FOR THE PENTAGON
A Placed that season on the last day (100%)
B Rated 109 or higher (90%)
C Won a Group race (85%)
D Sire’s stamina index 11.0 to 11.8 (60%)
E Winner trained Gosden, O’Brien
X Stable in form
ABCDEX The Pentagon
Galileo out of an Unfuwain mare, so strong stamina in the pedigree. Racing Post third to Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion, favourite and beaten only about a length in Hazapour’s Derby Trial at Leopardstown (good) with Delano Roosevelt a neck in front of him.
ABCDX Young Rascal
By a French Derby winner who was third in the Arc. Smooth run up the rail to win the Chester Vase from Dee Ex Bee, and showed that switching round rivals on a turning track was no problem for him, so overcoming a slow pace.
ABCEX Roaring Lion
Classic capable as an athlete but mentally a rebel until, after Craven Stakes third, and 2,000 Guineas fifth (two and a half lengths off Saxon Warrior), he surged clear in the Dante from an uninspiring field. Could build again on that.
ABCEX Saxon Warrior
Unbeaten son of Japanese Arc third out of a Galileo mare, winning the Racing Post Trophy a neck from Roaring Lion and The Pentagon, and ran on strongly to take the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas. Only two colts have done the Guineas-Derby double this century.
ABCX Hazapour
Related to the Epsom and Irish Derby winner, Harzand (same stable), kept on well to beat Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon in the Leopardstown Derby Trial.
ABC Masar
New Approach colt whose dam goes back to Sea The Stars and Galileo. Won the Craven Stakes and third in Saxon Warrior’s Guineas but another who would appeal more at the Eclipse distance.
ABDEX Delano Roosevelt
Galileo out of an Irish 1,000 Guineas winner and a big, galloping sort who has run second in the Beresford Stakes (to Saxon Warrior), the Ballysax (splitting Nelson and The Pentagon) and the Leopardstown Derby Trial (splitting Hazapour and The Pentagon). A benchmark for your personal ratings.
ABDEX Kew Gardens
Another Galileo; another benchmark, successfully second to Nelson, fourth to Saxon Warrior, beat Dee Ex Bee, third to Mildenberger and second to Knight To Behold. Rating fairly static, so a ‘nearly horse’ (famous last words).
ABD Knight To Behold
Sea The Stars out of a Sadlers Wells mare. Allowed a long lead in slow-run Lingfield Derby trial, with odds-on chaser Kew Gardens never going to get there. Needs more.
AB Dee Ex Bee
Big galloping sort. Runner-up to Kew Gardens at two, and to Young Rascal in the Chester Vase. Form of his Blue Riband third rates him behind Rostropovich. But experience of both Epsom and Chester puts him in the running as a ‘best outsider’.
ACEX Sevenna Star
Second and third when he won the Sandown Classic Trial were both well behind Young Rascal at Chester. So that’s more collateral form for your ratings.
AEX Zabriskie
Frankel colt out of a Nureyev mare, beaten four or five lengths in both the Blue Riband and the Dante. Looks outclassed.
SOLDIER TO WIN THIS BATTLE
2.10 Lingfield It’s not a surprise to see 11 (and counting) non runners at Lingfield this afternoon for their turf flat card after the deluge of rain in the past 48 hours has changed the ground to good to soft.
That might well suit the Andrew Balding trained Soldier To Follow who has form on heavy ground and can be excused a poor run at Chester first time out this season where he looked far from happy on the turning track.
Andrew Balding’s last four runners have been placed and hopefully Soldier To Fortune will bring about a welcome winner for the yard.
Mark Johnston is firing on all cylinders and supplies the favourite here with Bayshore Freeway. She was a good third at Goodwood last time out but I don’t think a further step up in trip will necessarily prove ideal and at 2.82 at the time of writing on BETDAQ looks plenty short enough.
4.40 Lingfield My man in the long grass suggests that Patchouli might be a great deal better than she showed on debut at Goodwood just five days ago when beating only one home.
It’s interesting that trainer Mick Channon has her out again so quickly and word is that she will leave that effort well behind and come on plenty for her first run where she was as green as the grass she was running on.
7.40 Chelmsford Fair play to Chelmsford who stage a very good card quality and prize money wise tonight, there are three class three races and two class two’s including this fillies handicap over a mile.
Ralph Beckett won it last year with Amabilis and looks to have a strong contender again tonight with Mesquite who was a course and distance winner last time out and very much remains on an upwards trajectory. She’s up 5lb though for her narrow win and this is a great deal tougher.
Preference is for Awesometank who has proved she has a touch of class by finishing fourth in Listed company at Newmarket on her last start having previously recorded solid wins at York and Newmarket. Her trainer William Haggas is in red hot form with 10 winners from his last 34 runners and Awesometank has run well previously on the all-weather surface at Lingfield.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 8.0pts win (nap) SOLDIER TO FORTUNE (2.10 Lingfield)
BET 4.5pts win PATCHOULI (4.40 Lingfield)
BET 5.7pts win AWESOMETANK (7.40 Chelmsford)
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