DAQMAN THREE OUT OF THREE SCORES 93 POINTS Daqman landed three winners from three bets yesterday, including an 11-8 nap, mixing them in Daq Multiples doubles and a 20-1 treble at SP for a total profit on the day of around 93 points to recommended stakes.
WON 4-1 MISTER MALARKY
WON 11-8 WILLIAM H BONNEY (nap)
WON 4-5 LOVE THE LEADER
WHICH OF THE STABLES HIT THE BULL’S-EYE BEST Today Daqman begins a series on the secrets of his betting methods. He argues that there are more ways than one of getting an edge from stable ability to make a ‘hit.’ Does the trainer place his horses well and then execute the coup? Or does he miss the strike?
TRAINERS? JUST GO ON STRIKE
It’s the winners what count! So goes the definitive, if ungrammatical, punting truism. But there are shades of meaning hidden within the obvious.
First I qualify the word ‘winner’ by being particular about the price, particularly on Saturdays and big-race days, in terms of value. I can’t find value unless I’m betting where value offers are made within a low-overround punter-friendly framework. That’s the BETDAQ orange.
But how can I increase my percentage of winners as such? In an occasional series, I’ll be looking at how to find edges in form, trainers, jockeys, the going – the lot! – to improve your winners-to-losers ratio.
Let’s start with trainers and, with trainers, let’s start with strike rates. You can find running totals in the daily form paper of who is winning most races and most money.
But I advise you to read these lists more closely, searching out the strike rates, and not just who gets the higher percentage of winners to runners.
Ask also, who gets more winners from his placed horses, which suggests that he ‘misses strike’ less often than the others.
A trainer is pretty smart if he averages 33% for winners, if you add his place results – 1, 2, 3 – and express his wins as a percentage of the total number of places.
But to have as many seconds and thirds means your having to swallow the bitter pill of 66% in the frame without winning.
You need to be with the stables who, when they strike, hit the bull’s-eye far more often, as near to 50% of the time as possible. Here’s a short list:
FLAT (2018): Charlie Appleby 48% winners from placed horses, John Gosden 47, William Haggas 44, David Elsworth 43, Roger Charlton 41, Hugo Palmer 41, Ian Williams 41, Archie Watson 40.
JUMPS (best win rate in previous seasons): Paul Nicholls 50% winners from placed horses, Harry Fry 47, Nicky Henderson 47, Neil Mulholland 44, Fergal O’Brien 41, Tom George 40, Philip Hobbs 40, Ian Williams 40.
I will be following the Jumps between now and the end of the year and give you a list of the 40%-plus strike rates for winners, ready for the big festivals of Aintree, Cheltenham and Punchestown later on.
Meanwhile, on a daily basis, when you assess trainers in or out of form, check out their recent wins against their overall place returns. A stable ‘missing strike’ is worse than one out of form altogether.
A string of near misses means that the odds about the stable runners may remain short, whereas the response to a ‘row of duck eggs’ is to drift their horses to double-figure prices. I try always to tell you which trainers are ‘missing strike’ when it’s relevant to my analysis.
I suggest that you will have a ready-made guide to stable form with a difference, if you use your table of top strikers (40% plus) and then check their recent returns for more wins than usual among the placed horses.
If, however, there are just one or two winners propping up a bridesmaid list of seconds and thirds, stay well clear of the trainer until he gets his mojo back!
LUCKY FOR SOME AT SOUTHWELL
1.00 Fakenham Two non runners at Fakenham this afternoon which ordinarily wouldn’t be much of a consequence but when the card consists of 26 runners in TOTAL it becomes a little more depressing. The good to firm ground has decimated the card so much so that I would’t be surprised to see the Pools Panel reconvened! A match and a two three runner races have really condemned the card of any punting interest bar the opener when an incredible EIGHT runners go to post.
It’s low grade, as you would expect of a selling handicap hurdle and quite an open market on BEDTAQ compared with the rest of the meeting,
I’m drawn in by the chances of Todd who is a big class dropper and I think he is over-priced. The Olly Murphy trained runner was a course and distance runner-up last time out to Canyon City in a much better contest. He was beaten 11 lengths but a lot of caveats with these types of races don’t apply with him. Namely, we are not looking for him to reproduce a line of form he did in the distant past, we are simply asking him to do what he did just 32 days ago. 5.8 on BETDAQ, at the time of writing, looks a gift.
There are a lot more question marks about his stable companion Mizen Master who won a claimer at Worcester before finishing a well beaten fifth in a seller at Stratford last time out when reported to be lame.
2.10 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Home Of The Odds Boost Nursery) Aegean Mist would have had a big chance despite a 10lb hike in the weights but is now a non runner. That may leave the coast clear for Shining who is knocking on the door and was only pipped a nose over course and distance last time out.
He is preferred to Reticent Angel who is up 5lb for a neck victory at Chelmsford last time out.
2.20 Southwell Supremely Lucky looks set to give trainer Dan Skelton (5 wins from last 28) another success).
In a race that can be quickly narrowed down to just three runners he can make the most of the weight he receives from General Custard (anchored by weight rise at Fakenham) and Net De Treve (outclassed and beaten a distance last time out) and build on his comeback fourth at Chepstow.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.1pts win TODD (1.00 Fakenham)
BET 6.4pts win SHINING (2.10 Lingfield)
BET 12.5pts win (nap) SUPREMELY LUCKY (2.20 Southwell)
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