FIVE DAYS OF WINNERS FROM SUPERNAPS TO 20-1: Daqman, who had at least one winner a day (totalling 37) in an 18-day sequence to March 17, is on another winners spree. He’s had seven in five days including two supernaps and a 20-1 start to the Flat in Ireland. He had two out of two at Lingfield yesterday so that the five days of winners reads:
Wednesday
WON 3-1 Dragon Sun (6.0 BETDAQ)
WON 9-4 Shanghai Grace (4.0 BETDAQ)
Tuesday
WON 1-2 Steely Addition (supernap)
Monday
WON 5-6 Gumball (supernap)
Sunday
WON 20-1 Western Dawn (Irish Flat opens)
Saturday
WON 9-2 Chic Name (8.2 BETDAQ)
WON 9-2 Winston C (6.8 BETDAQ)
HORSE-BY-HORSE BIG-RACE STATS AND FACTS: How do the stats and facts from Lincolns past give us a guide to the first big handicap of the season at Doncaster on Saturday? It’s the first of Daqman’s ABC guides to the betting feast this Saturday and the Grand National banquet next Saturday. Now it’s a picnic finding the winners this year!
LINCOLN HANDICAP ABC GUIDE
IS THIS THE AGE OF AQUARIUM?
A Winner at a mile and raced over further (10/10)
B Last five winners rated 99 to 102
C Nine winners out of 16 were four-year-olds
D Trained C Appleby, Barron, Fahey, O’Meara, Quinn
E Goes well fresh/first run of the season (78%)
F Raced at Doncaster before (50%)
X1 Black mark: carries more than 9st 4lb
X2 Black Mark: over the age of 6
++ Stable in form
ABCF Aquarium++
Won over 10f in October (soft, York). Lost form after but has shed 7lb since. Had four losing races before that win and, similarly, fit from 0000 on AW this year. Stable in form.
ABD Waarif
Has taken four mile races on firm, good and heavy, for stable that’s won the Lincoln before. Now 19lb higher since June, albeit ‘improving all the time’ (quote unquote David O’Meara).
ABEF Chiefofchiefs
Beat Kynren a head in Whitsun Cup last May, but 9lb worse off now. Fit from AW (won at Kempton in January). Needs cover to come off a fast pace: Atzeni booked to work the oracle.
ABEF Zwayyan ++
Not won a turf handicap since June 2017 (soft) but in good form in the autumn, before length winner of Lincoln trial on Wolverhampton AW, getting a pound from Breden, but that’s cost him a 5lb penalty. Trainer in form.
ABEF Breden X2
Nine-year-old who needs top of the ground. Revitalised after wind op, with three wins and three places in 11 starts. See Zwayyan.
ABEF Chatez X2 ++
Won the Spring Mile on the Lincoln card in 2015 and has run well without winning in light career since (seven races, three of them over hurdles). Trainer in form.
ABE Saltonstall ++
Trainer Ado McGuinness has been in cracking form (4-9) but this horse has first run for him.
Second in last year’s Irish Lincolnshire on the soft before impressive win at the Curragh (good) from new stablemate who was this year’s recent Irish Lincoln third! Needs rain.
ABF Masham Star ++
Beat the 2017 Lincoln winner, Bravery, on firm ground in August and won a Group 3 in Italy on heavy in November for Mark Johnston.
ACF Ventura Knight
Not clear run when seventh to Zwayyan (behind stablemate Aquarium) in the Lincoln Trial at Wolver. Has been unfancied at big prices on AW and career success has come only in small fields.
ACEF Silver Quartz
Readily beat Zwayyan in Ascot handicap (1m) for Hugo Palmer in September and only pound worse off, which just gives him the edge over Waarif on collateral form. Gelded and prepped in Lincoln Trial for new trainer Watson.
AC Beringer ++
Won over further (1m 2f) and only at a lower level (class 4) since wind surgery 15 months back. Trainer in form but best results in the summer.
ADEF Kynren
Third in the Spring Mile on this card a year ago, and ran well in top handicaps after (see Chiefofchiefs), including sixth in the Cambridgeshire. Not won since hat-trick in 2017.
and long in the tooth now at age 10. Trainer out of form.
ADF Third Time Lucky X2
York success in July was first Flat turf win (among 19 starts) since the Cambridgeshire of 2015. Third in the Lincoln Trial. Trainer out of form.
AEF Wahash
Aw winner over a mile but 0-16 on Flat turf and handicapper reluctant to help.
BCDE Auxerre ++
One-mile hat-trick between June and October and favourite for the Lincoln through the winter. Trainer has had 55% strike rate on AW.
BE South Seas ++
Not won since 2016 hat-trick included the Solario Stakes, and left Andrew Balding’s yard for Philip Kirby’s. Dropped 5lb since gelded.
CDEF Great Prospector
Won only his maiden (always a bad sign) and never raced beyond 7f.
CEF Raydiance
Reportedly working well. Though soft ground winner twice, swerved the Irish Lincolnshire for this. Twice tried at Pattern level.
CE Another Batt X1
Success has come short of a mile but good fourth in big-field Balmoral Handicap at Ascot in October.. Fit from Meydan campaign (won there in January)
DEF Humbert
Beaten a neck in both Doncaster Spring Mile and Newbury Spring Cup for Hugo Palmer and, off higher mark, was big-field Seaton Delaval winner on Tapeta at Newcastle. Now with David O’Meara.
DEF Safe Voyage
Impressed at the Galway Festival in August. Not won beyond 7f (not in frame in two tries at 1m) but improved two stone last year
EF Ripp Orf
Two 7f wins at Ascot, including Victoria Cup, and third in the International there. No Aw form this winter and likely to need the run.
GENEROUS BETDAQ ‘DAY’ OFFERS
2.00 Newcastle Just six runners in the opener at Newcastle but it looks ultra-competitive.
The interesting one for me lurks at the bottom of the card. Lady Kyria is relatively lightly raced with just four career starts (fell on debut) but you get the impression there is further to come and the handicapper has dropped her 3lb from her latest effort at Sedgefield when third.
Another big positive is she hails from Philip Kirby’s yard who have hit a rich vein of form with 6 winners from their last 13 runners including a double at Market Rasen yesterday. The Kirby yard are expected to have Blaklion running for them in next week’s National.
I think the handicapper knows exactly where he is at with her rivals, including Rubytwo who is UP 2lb for finishing second at Musselburgh last time out.
2.50 Wolverhampton I’ve been waiting for John Gosden’s Gantier to step up in trip. He’s already finished in front of Water’s Edge over further, and should be too good for Caplin and Paradise Boy, closely matched after finishing one-two here 12 days back.
3.15 Warwick Since the autumn of 2017, Generous Day – when kept to 2m or 2m 2f – has form figures of 2131310, which reads like his turn is due again.
Only 3lb higher than when CD winner here at Warwick in January, and getting between 9lb and 18lb from most of the field. I took a generous 3.75 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.45 Warwick Paul Nicholls’ Coup De Pinceau is getting more than a stone from out-of-form Hammersley Park, which used to be with Nicholls’ vanquished rival, Nicky Henderson.
Coup De Pinceau’s handicap debut here follows some tough assignments in Graded novice-chases.
I can’t fancy the bridesmaid Molly Childers (form figures 22223212 since this time last year) but Templehills has also faced some serious business – including the Stable Plate at Cheltenham – since winning twice here at Warwick over shorter.
Ian Williams’ King Of Realms, regarded at home as ‘a proper horse’, won a usually-classy novices’ chase at Ascot but also failed to make it at Graded level.
The word is that Templehills, who must have a left-handed track, will be allowed to do his own thing by Sam Twiston-Davies and play catch-me. It’s worked here before.
With Ian Williams’ team badly out of form (7% strike rate), the one to win the catch-me game is the stayer of the party, Coup De Pinceau. Nice race. Nice price.
3.55 Wolverhampton This class 3 handicap over six furlongs is the best race on the card and looks wide open.
Coolagh Magic was on for the hat-trick before finishing third over course and distance last time out but it was a run that went into many notebooks – including mine.
He was slowly away after an awkward start and could never get competitive which seems an odd thing to say given he was only beaten a length – but that’s exactly how the race panned out.
He holds both Fares Kodiac and Sandridge Lad on that form.
The handicapper has kept him on 81 which I think is a level he can continue to win off – and he pops out of the same number 4 stall that has provided the winner of this race in the last two runnings for co-incidence backers !!
7.00 Chelmsford I never turn down a ‘Godsend’ of a bet (fingers crossed he’s already had a winner with Gantier) and thought that John Gosden’s White Coat looked a spot of value here against Rux Power at respective prices of 3.3 and 2.08 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
The favourite, trained by Andrew Balding has been off the course for 238 days, since seemingly improving on her debut run to finish second at Goodwood. However, they finished in a heap at Goodwood and the winner, third and fourth have all failed to win a race since and we have the added question mark of Rux Power facing the all-weather for the first time tonight.
In contrast, White Vision is no world beater – we know that already – and form figures of 02-322 suggests that even the maestro trainer himself is struggling with this project but he was only beaten a short on the line over a mile here last time out (pair finished six lengths clear) and the drop back in trip, with cheekpieces and tongue tie fitted, are reasons for thinking that overdue first win may finally land.
It looks pretty much an even match up and I’m always going to be taking 3.3 in such circumstances.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 7.4pts win LADY KYRIA
2.50 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win GANTIER
3.15 Warwick (win 20)
WIN 7.25pts win GENEROUS DAY
3.45 Warwick (supernap)
BET 20pts win COUP DE PINCEAU
3.55 Wolverhampton (win 20)
BET 6.6pts win COOLAGH MAGIC
4.50 Warwick (win 10)
BET 6.5pts win BOURBON BORDERLINE
7.00 Chelmsford (win 20)
BET 8.7pts win WHITE COAT
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