HOW TO SPOT THE AINTREE RACES WITH VALUE: On the opening day of the Grand National meeting, the SP returns of the last three races were overround 138, 121 and 130%. Daqman reports this morning that the offers in the BETDAQ orange for today’s card added up to 107, 105, 103, 103, 108, 103, 105%. He says: ‘Look no further! It means that in every race you are getting tremendous value for money on BETDAQ!’
WHICH STABLES TO FOLLOW AND WHAT TO BACK: Today Daqman suggests short lists of potential winners, based on his research into the trainers who farm the Aintree meeting. His betting headlines on a day of two 20-point bets today are:
AINTREE STABLE SHORT LIST
45.0 THE JOKER IN THE PACK
PRECIOUS STONE IN ONE-TWO
IT’S GAME, SET AND MATCH..
.. THEN PLAY WAITING GAME
A GOOD CALL IN THE TOPHAM
WALK AWAY WITH WINNINGS
AINTREE STABLE SHORT LIST
* Runners for trainers winning most races here in the decade
TODAY
1.45 Aintree Brio Conti, Mont Des Avaloirs, Tedham, Three Musketeers, Kobrouk, Sternrubin, Wait For Me, Doctor Dex, Mount Mews.
2.20 Aintree Aramon, Precious Cargo, Felix Desjy, Southfield Stone.
2.50 Aintree Topofthegame, Lostintranslation, Mr Whipped.
3.25 Aintree Politologue, Min, Top Notch, God’s Own
4.05 Aintree Janika, Adrien Du Pont, Ballyhill, Polidam, Cadmium, Double Shuffle, Flying Angel, Kilcrea Vale, O O Seven, San Benedeto, Woods Well, Activial, Divine Spear, Henryville, More Buck’s.
4.40 Aintree Champ, Dallas Des Pictons, Downtown Getaway, Trevelyn’s Corn, Kingsplace.
5.15 Aintree Master Debonair, McFabulous, Onthefrontfoot.
TOMORROW
3.40 Aintree (Stayers Hurdle) Apple’s Jade, West Approach, Wholestone, William Henry, Kilbricken Storm, The World’s End, Lord Napier.
4.20 Aintree Mister Malarkey, Touch Kick, Springtown Lake, River Wylde, Three Musketeers, Tommy Silver, Henryville, Lough Derg Spirit, Minella Daddy, Reikers Island, Federici, More Bucks, Woods Well, Beggars Wishes.
5.15 Aintree (Grand National) Tiger Roll, Rathvinden, Jury Duty, Pleasant Company, Rock The Kasbah, Minella Rocco, Ramses De Teillee, Up For Review, Ballyoptic, Noble Endeavour, Dounikos, Go Conquer, Vieux Lion Rouge, General Principle, Isleofhopendreams, Singlefarmpayment, A Toi Phil, Folsom Blue, Mala Beach, Ultragold, Valtor, Warriors Tale, Bless The Wings, Blow By Blow, Don Poli, Livelovelaugh, Monbeg Notorious, Outlander
45.0 THE JOKER IN THE PACK
1.45 Aintree today (handicap hurdle) Not a favourite in sight, with winners at 10-1 (three), 14-1, 16-1 (two), 20-1 and 33-1.
But form is the only way to bet, and BETDAQ 8.8 offer Brio Conti ran a great race, beaten a couple of lengths, fourth despite being hampered, in the Coral Cup (Canardier fifth).
Tedham, the 5.7 favourite this morning, has been rested since winning his first handicap in January. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill says he’s improving all the time at home and will be fresh for this.
It’s a pinstickers’ race, and mine falls on Joke Dancer, who was back to form after a pioneering wind op but unsuited by the sounder surface on the last day.
Bred to have the stamina for this and the rain came just in time. He was a giveaway 45.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
PRECIOUS STONE IN ONE-TWO
2.20 Aintree (Top Novices’ Hurdle) The likes of Josses Hill, My Tent Or Yours and Buveur d’Air have won this.
Nicky Henderson has taken it five times in the decade and Precious Cargo, a strong, lengthy son of Yeats out of a Classic Cliche mare, looked special at Kempton and Sandown. BETDAQ 5.3.
Aramon, only a head behind Klassical Dream at Leopardstown on good ground, was more than 11 lengths in arrears on the soft at Cheltenham.
Itchy Feet was five lengths in front of Aramon that day but he, too, had had good ground in every race when he landed a hat-trick.
Southfield Stone (11.0) also won his races on a sound surface but swerved Cheltenham and will be fresh for this.
IT’S GAME, SET AND MATCH..
2.50 Aintree (Mildmay Novices’ Chase) Paul Nicholls last won this with Silviniaco Conti, who came to the race rated 173.
Topfofthegame is 10lb below that mark but the others are even lower down the novices’ pecking order, and I was impressed with his RSA success at Cheltenham.
Lostintranslation (off 157) is a beautiful big horse who steps out of the shadow of his JLT conqueror, Defi Du Seuil, and could relish the step up in trip. In fact, I see him in my Fortune Cookies list as a stayer next season.
.. THEN PLAY WAITING GAME
3.25 Aintree (Melling Chase) It was a star performance by Politologue to get within a couple of lengths of Altior in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, and he won this race last year by a neck from Min, only fifth at Cheltenham.
Waiting Patiently is top rated for his seven wins in row in 2017/18, including defeat of Politologue, and he beat that one again on his Grade-1 comeback in February.
This is a threeway battle and yesterday I managed to give the second horse home in every conditions contest (returns of 2222). Sorry, you have been waiting patiently for a winner!
A GOOD CALL IN THE TOPHAM
4.05 Aintree (Topham Chase) Colin Tizzard must have gone close to a hat-trick in this with Ultragold but will saddle him for the National instead.
Today’s is a much better race this time around. Witness the fourth horse in 2018, Kilcrea Vale, up a pound in the ratings but with 9lb less to carry today.
Janika has been severely punished for his bridesmaid act (as bad as me almost with 222 after a winning sequence in France on heavy). He is up 17lb since coming over here.
Curragh-trained Call It Magic was fourth in the Becher Chase over further in December (lost a shoe), when Walk In The Mill beat Vieux Lion Rouge and Ultragold (see the National field tomorrow.)
The rain has come for him and he had a promising run back, also over further, at Fairyhouse in February, even though he didn’t appreciate going right-handed.
Again, there’s no sign of a winning favourite in this one. SPs include 22-1 (twice) and 50-1, with three at 14-1 in the last nine years.
Cadmium is too big at 24.0 for Willie Mullins. Every chance he will improve for the step up in trip.
WALK AWAY WITH WINNINGS
4.40 Aintree (Sefton Novices Hurdle) Walk Away is ‘a gorgeous horse’, says trainer Henry De Bromhead, who scored at Aintree yesterday with Moon Over Germany. Could be anything.
Champ (second), Dallas Des Pictons (second) and Losnager Oscar (fifth) ran well in, respectively, the Ballymore, the Martin Pipe and the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham.
But, as we saw yesterday, some come on from Cheltenham, some don’t. I’ll walk away from them.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Aintree (win 30 twice, win 50)
BET 6.25pts win TEDHAM
BET 3.75pts win BRIO CONTI
BULL’S-EYE BET: 1pt w/p JOKE DANCER
2.20 Aintree (win 30, win 20)
BET 7pts win PRECIOUS CARGO
BET 2pts win SOUTHFIELD STONE
2.50 Aintree (supernap)
BET 20pts win TOPOFTHEGAME
BET 5.5pts win (saver) LOSTINTRANSLATION
3.25 Aintree (win 20)
BET 10pts win WAITING PATIENTLY
4.05 Aintree (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 10pts win CALL IT MAGIC
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.25pts w/p CADMIUM
4.40 Aintree (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 4pts w/p WALK AWAY
EARLY BIRDS (Flat)
3.05 Leicester (20pts win)
THE MAXWECAN
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