DAQMAN GOES FOR THE MAXIMUM ON KING GEORGE DAY: Max Ready Made For The Brown Jack, said Daqman yesterday. So it proved when Themaxwecan (WON 2-1) landed our man’s first 30-point bet since last weekend. There are maximum targets on King George day today but no supernap.
Daqman 50 Pricewise 24 (Daqman 409 points clear to 10 stakes)
Bull’s-eye naps (6-11) 269 points up to recommended stakes
Supernaps (16-22) 118 points up to 20 point stakes
TODAY’S HEADLINES
VAN DYCK THE HORSE TO GROUND ENABLE
ROMANCE IS IN THE AIR AT BETDAQ 8.8
GOLDEN CHANCE FOR APOLLO IN THE DASH
ARBALET CAN HAVE A BALL ON THE SOFT
VAN DYCK THE HORSE TO GROUND ENABLE
3.40 Ascot (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes) Full ABC GUIDE published Wednesday. CLICK HERE
The stats in the guide told us that last year a five-year-old couldn’t win but one did win it for the first time since 1999, and the facts are today that this year’s Classic generation can muster only two three-year-olds, and from last year’s the same: just two four-year-olds run. It seems that the old pattern is broken.
And the likely soft ground after overnight rain – and more showers forecast – changes nothing in this topsy-turvy battle of the generations in that the first five in the betting have all won Group races on soft ground. What to do? Are the youngsters really a wet lot in the rain today?
Punters are always anxious to pick one horse and root for it. In fact, all you’re doing is picking 10 chances out of 11 to lose this King George when there is incredible value (103% overround) in the BETDAQ orange. You can afford to back two but not if one of them is the favourite at 1.65!
My view is that offers about Enable this morning will ease if the ground eases further. Punters don’t go for ‘mortgage jobs’ in the mud when at least five solid runners can cope with it. They panic, and layers have to shift the load.
I’m going to stick my neck right out and bet on the redemption of the 2019 Derby, with victory for Anthony Van Dyck, a huge 10.5 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
He won at Epsom by finding a final turn of foot up the hill the others wished they’d had, and he ran on incredibly well in the Irish version after being given too much to do against a suicidal pace, rather like the day Braulio Baeza broke Brigadier Gerard’s unbeaten record by flying around York on Roberto. Before your time.
Ryan Moore was caught out or wouldn’t have done what he did on Anthony Van Dyck at the Curragh, and they have swerved the speed races with the winner, Sovereign, treating him as a St Leger winner and future Cup horse, confirming that they think a galloper got away from the field.
That won’t happen today but this column which ‘found’ Enable and has had nine consecutive victories from her including two Arcs can’t desert her entirely, only desert her price.
I’m going to float offers in the orange to get as near evens as I can and hope to cover my main bet on Anthony Van Dyck. I shall applaud her if she wins but every race is now about ‘when’ not if she is beaten, and I can’t afford – who can? – the high stakes required to see her through three races at odds on including an Arc hat-trick bid.
She’s not a Winx or a Frankel, avoiding any prospect of defeat. She’s a mare who has had to work hard for glory, and has a strong field bent on stopping her again today, with the rain’s intervention making it more difficult.
VERDICT: 1 Anthony Van Dyck, 2 Enable, 3 Crystal Ocean.
ROMANCE IS IN THE AIR AT BETDAQ 8.8
2.05 York Get Knotted has won this race three years running on good to firm, good to soft and soft.
He’s been beaten 12 times – in fact, in all other races – on the Knavesmire but is clearly the golden goose whose egg is timed to drop for this one race. It was certainly anticipated last night when Get Knotted was squeezed from 8-1 to 3-1, and this morning he was 4.8 in the BETDAQ orange.
There’s precious little between last year’s one-two (Starlight Romance was second) on soft and, though Starlight Romance has won here on good to firm, the mare is also a winner (at Chester) on soft, and was a big price at 8.8 offers on BETDAQ this morning.
Nigel Tinkler is having a great season and I’ve had my eye on the grey Whinmoor, wondering when he’d be relaunched, after a four-timer (all on firm) took him 40lb up the ratings. He’s down 7lb and last year’s ‘big baby’ will be making a mature contribution sooner than later, but will he like the ground today?
2.25 Ascot We have very little information as to which of these will come out on top on soft ground, though Flashcard has Pivotal in his blood, always a pointer in these conditions. I took 4.6 BETDAQ offers.
GOLDEN CHANCE FOR APOLLO IN THE DASH
2.40 York (Dash) This is as big a puzzle as the King George, bearing in mind that the handicapper has them all rated to finish level in, literally, a dash to t he line. Extremes of the draw and the softish ground may thwart his weights equaliser.
The last four renewals went to horses drawn 4, 5, 1, 6, the last twice to Flying Pursuit but he’s now in 16, so likely to drag the near side into contention but facing tough task to make all.
Stablemate Golden Apollo is 2lb better off for the neck between them that Flying Pursuit hung on to last year, out of the one stall. He’s in gate 14 now, and will be able to tailgate Flying Pursuit. I took 8.6 in the BETDAQ orange.
A third Tim Easterby contender, Staxton, needs a career best. Gulliver came back to form on firm ground, and Camacho Chief, though happy on the soft, is a 5f horse.
ARBALET CAN HAVE A BALL ON THE SOFT
3.00 Ascot (International Handicap) We’re desperate to find an edge here, and it may be the draw: double-figure stalls are eight from nine.
Also, rather like the King George, older horses didn’t get a look-in until last year. So we’ll stick with those aged four and five (9 out of 10), and carrying a max 9st 1lb., which may be a particularly important stat on the soft ground.
Kaeso likes ground and trip and was third in the Victoria Cup here in the Spring. I just wish he wasn’t 11lb higher, albeit due to go up even further and carrying a 3lb penalty.
I prefer 17.5 BETDAQ offer Arbalet, runner-up in this last year, 3lb lower this time, dropping down from the Pattern and with his conditions for the first time in a handicap, though he’s off 9st 5lb.
The three-year-old Fanaar (12.5) was third in the Britannia and my redemption day for the Classic generation would be on the road if he could land this.
Victoria Cup sixth Blue Mist (at 21.0) is unexposed. Lake Volta may have to shed a few pounds. Spanish City needs a drier surface.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 York (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win STARLIGHT ROMANCE
2.25 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win FLASHCARD
2.40 York (bull’s-eye bet to win 50)
BET 6.5pts win GOLDEN APOLLO
3.00 Ascot (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 4.25pts win FANAAR
BET 3pts win ARBALET
BET 2.5pts win BLUE MIST
3.40 Ascot (bull’s-eye bet to win 50)
BET 5.25pts win (nap) ANTHONY VAN DYCK
BET 7pts win (stakes saver) ENABLE
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