WHY GAMBLE WHEN YOU CAN BE A BETTER BETTOR ON BETDAQ: Gambling is when you have no idea of the potential outcome. Betting is when you pit your knowledge against another’s, and decide whether to back or lay when one of you makes an offer: it’s the very core of BETDAQ trading. For the next three days, starting today, Daqman explains the language of picking his bets, and explores race-by-race assessment before, finally, translating all that into structured betting?
CREATE A VALUE RATING FROM THE FORM
Time of year It’s time to reassess the stables: who’s doing well; don’t bet on hope or your own favouritism for one stable against the strong current form of another.
It’s the time for some horses to pass their peak, and for others to return to form. The time for three-year-olds to beat their elders.
The time for some horses to ‘have an easy’ or two, or drop out for a month or so, and come back for the softer surfaces of the autumn.
Sequence horses Horses that have set up a sequence may now have too much weight; others can be improved further and will go on winning, like Kings Advice (Mark Johnston) and Timoshenko (Sir Mark Prescott) last week.
It’s all down to training skill. Very few stables are even half as good as those commanded by Johnston, Prescott and Sir Michael Stoute for improving a horse through the grades.
Over the top With most other yards, or when assessing races at a low level (or both), sequence horses are fallible: they won’t keep on winning for long.
In fact, a horse may win only one race and go ‘over the top’, just not capable of keeping their form! Your first task as a punter is to spot the fallible favourites. More about that next week.
Strike rate The strike rate (wins to runs) will tell you which trainers and which jockeys are in form.
Missing strike If there are very few wins but a lot of places (second, third, and fourth), it’s a fair guess the trainer has them under par, short of a gallop, or the jockey has lost his edge.
Official Ratings The handicapper may struggle to keep up with the Johnstons and the Prescotts of this racing world: all he can do is rate every horse and weight them accordingly. He is the equaliser, the protector of graded racing. But remember:
Base ratings His ratings are base ratings. They do not take into account going or draw, the strike rate of trainer and jockey, not even the distance.
Future ratings So adjust the ratings to take those things into consideration in the race you are assessing, so giving each horse a future rating. Check your skills by marking horses OR (official rating) and MFR (‘my future rating’).
Value bets See how you often you ‘beat the system’ with your MFR and at what prices. This could be your basis for value bets, and the place to look for the odds is in the BETDAQ orange list of offers.
TOMORROW: Reading between the lines of the form
FACEBOOK MESSAGE FOR ZUCKERBERG
2.00 Catterick Zuckerberg is interesting here from stall one. A low berth always draws me in at Catterick over the seven furlong trip.
There’s not much form to go on with the two-year-olds but Zuckerberg progressed from his Leicester debut to finish fourth at Redcar last time out behind the above average War Storm. He’s up again in trip today but it’s a speedy seven here and he should be able to see out the distance.
Most of the main dangers have a had a couple of starts so we are not going to run the risk of a sudden improver, first to second start.
Mischief Star is prominent in the betting but he was very disappointing on second start at York when beaten over 18 lengths and finished last of seven.
2.45 Newbury A fairly mediocre set of cards on Tuesday but Newbury does provide some respite, despite the card not being of the usual standard for the course.
Strict Tempo looks the answer to this seven furlong handicap. The handicapper has lifted her 2lb for her Salisbury second last time out but given she pulled nine lengths clear of the third on good to firm ground it’s easy to see why.
Handicapping can be an enigma at times. If, hypothetically, the Salisbury winner (Posted) hadn’t been in the race and Strict Tempo had WON BY NINE LENGTHS I think it’s fair to say we’d be looking a lot more than 2lb extra today !!
Over the same trip she should prove hard to beat in this company. After John dropped away tamely at Newmarket on handicap debut and needs to show more, even allowing for this being an easier assignment whilst Nefarious seems very much in the grip of the handicapper and his trainer Henry Candy is not running on full steam at the moment.
4.55 Newbury Divine Covey, owned by The Queen, is interesting on handicap debut. She improved steadily on each of her three starts to date and seemed to appreciate the step up in trip to six furlongs at Doncaster last time out when runner-up to Go Well Spicy. She was doing her best work at the end and may relish the seven furlongs here.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 10 points)
BET 4.6pts win (nap) ZUCKERBERG (2.00 Catterick)
BET 3.8pts win STRICT TEMPO (2.45 Newbury)
BET 2pts win DIVINE COVEY (4.55 Newbury)
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