PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with SOUTHAMPTON v MAN U and the late game is BURNLEY v LIVERPOOL at 5.30pm.
SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
12.30pm We have an International Break coming up next week so it’s a very busy Saturday in the Premier League with eight games. We start with Southampton hosting Manchester United who were shocked last weekend at home to Crystal Palace. After such a positive start when beating Chelsea 4-0, it’s all gone downhill quickly for United after a draw against Wolves and losing to Palace. They were dearly love a win here to steady the ship; another loss and, while it’s very early in the season, their Top Four hopes would already have suffered a huge setback.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Southampton 3.95, Manchester United 2.16 and the draw is 3.5. Southampton have a terrible record against United – they are without a win in their last eight home games. However, Palace had an even worse record heading into last weekend; teams just don’t fear United these days. Southampton played well against Liverpool here and if they play a similar game, we can’t see United beating them. This is a poor United side and we have to lay the 2.16.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Manchester United at 2.16.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQStpMun
MATCH STATS
- Southampton are winless in their last eight home Premier League games against Manchester United (W0 D3 L5) since winning 1-0 in August 2003.
- In all competitions, Manchester United have won more away games at St. Mary’s against Southampton than any other side (10 wins).
- The home team has ended on the winning side in just three of the last 15 Premier League meetings between Southampton and Man Utd (W3 D5 L7).
- Southampton have lost nine Premier League games against Manchester United after leading in the game – more than any other team has done so against another in Premier League history.
- There have been seven direct free-kick goals scored in Premier League fixtures between Southampton and Man Utd – including two by Southampton last season – with only games between Liverpool and Man Utd seeing more such goals (8).
- Since a 0-0 draw with Newcastle in October 2018, Southampton have found the net at least once in their last 15 Premier League home games. Only between August 1992-April 1993 have Saints had a longer such run in the competition (17), while only Manchester City (21), Arsenal (19) and Liverpool (17) are on a longer current run of scoring in home games.
- Manchester United have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 Premier League games (4-0 vs Chelsea on the opening day), shipping 22 goals in that time while scoring just 19 in return (W5 D3 L6).
- Manchester United have failed to score more penalties than any other team in Premier League history (37 of 144), with Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford missing United’s last two spot-kicks in the competition.
- Including games as a player, Man Utd manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær has won his last eight Premier League games against Southampton (six as a player, two as a manager), last failing to do so when playing the full 90 minutes in a 3-3 draw at Old Trafford in September 1999.
- Southampton’s Nathan Redmond has been directly involved in four goals in his last four Premier League home games (3 goals, 1 assist), having failed to score or assist in any of his previous seven at St Mary’s.
CHELSEA V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm Chelsea faced a rollercoaster last weekend away to Norwich but they finally got their first win of the season. They have a great chance to build on that now having home advantage against Sheffield United. Frank Lampard’s men should get the job done here; however based on what we’ve seen thus far this season, the 1.39 on Chelsea is only for the bravest of the brave! There’s no doubt Chelsea need to improve if they’re going to challenge for a top six finish; and they simply need to win games like today if they’re going to have any chance. Sheffield United have managed to find the net in every game this season while Chelsea have conceded in every game. We feel Both Teams To Score should be odds on here and it’s trading 2.1 – that looks massive looking at both teams.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Both Teams To Score at 2.1.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCheShf
MATCH STATS
- Chelsea and Sheffield United last faced in the Premier League in the 2006-07 season, with the Blues winning both contests without conceding a goal.
- Sheffield United are looking for their first away win against Chelsea since October 1992, when they won their first Premier League visit there 2-1 with goals from Adrian Littlejohn and Brian Deane.
- On the day of this game, it will be 96 years and 328 days since Sheffield United kept an away clean sheet against Chelsea, a 0-0 draw in October 1922; the Blades have conceded in all 30 games since.
- Chelsea have lost only three of their 80 home Premier League games against newly- promoted opposition (W66 D11 L3) and have never lost such a game in the month of August (W10 D1 L0).
- Sheffield United have only won two of their last 22 top-flight matches in London (W2 D5 L15) – however, both wins were at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea, in March and October 1992.
- Yorkshire teams have won only one of their last 25 Premier League visits to Stamford Bridge (W1 D8 L16), with Leeds United winning 2-0 in December 1999.
- All four of Chelsea’s Premier League goals in 2019-20 have been scored by Englishmen; the highest such 100% record in the competition this season (Mount x2, Abraham x2).
- Since a 2-3 loss at Chelsea on the final day of the 1993-94 season, Sheffield United have failed to score more than once in their last 20 Premier League away games, netting just nine goals in that run.
- Chelsea’s Mason Mount is looking to score in three consecutive appearances for the first time in English league football. However, Mount found the net in three consecutive Dutch league games (inc. play-offs) back in May 2018 for Vitesse.
- Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham has scored more goals than any other English player in the top two tiers since the start of last season (inc. play-offs), with his brace against Norwich last time out taking his total to 28.
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
3pm Crystal Palace produced the shock of the Premier League season when beating Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend. Apart from that game; they have looked pretty average and were many punters idea of an outsider to go down. Villa have impressed thus far in the Premier League; troubling Spurs at the start of the season and beating Everton last weekend. We can’t have Palace this short at 2.28. They performed well last weekend at Old Trafford but that’s not their average performance based on what we’ve seen from this season. They were very poor in front of their own fans last season too and we’re very happy to lay Palace from a value point of view here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.28.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQCryAst
MATCH STATS
- Crystal Palace and Aston Villa last faced in January 2016, when Villa secured one of their three Premier League wins in 2015-16 against the Eagles at Villa Park.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last 13 away games in all competitions against Crystal Palace (W1 D6 L6), a 1-0 win in December 2014.
- Aston Villa will be looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time since May 2015, when they beat Everton (3-2) and West Ham (1-0) under Tim Sherwood.
- Crystal have won 10 Premier League matches in 2019; only Manchester City (19), Liverpool (16) and Arsenal (12) have registered more victories this year. Indeed, since beating Fulham at the start of February, only Man City (49) and Liverpool (45) have earned more Premier League points than the Eagles (30).
- Aston Villa have failed to win any of their last 19 Premier League away games (W0 D3 L16), since beating Bournemouth in August 2015. The Villans last endured a longer run without an away top-flight victory in August 1976 (29 games).
- Crystal Palace lost against Sheffield United on matchday two – only once in their previous 10 Premier League campaigns have Palace lost their first two fixtures against newly promoted opposition in a season (2017-18).
- In Premier League history, Crystal Palace have won just 51% of their total points in home games (221/433), the lowest such ratio in the competition.
- Aston Villa have lost their last six Premier League away games in London, scoring just three goals and conceding 16. They last had a longer losing run in top-flight games in the capital between November 1963-November 1964 (7).
- Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson has won more Premier League games against Aston Villa than he has vs any other side (P11 W7 D2 L2). He’s won his first meeting with them with each of his previous four clubs in the competition (Blackburn Rovers, Fulham, Liverpool and West Bromwich Albion).
- Crystal Palace’s Jordan Ayew scored seven goals in 30 Premier League games for Aston Villa in the 2015-16 campaign. The Villans have had 38 different players to score both for and against them in the Premier League – only West Ham have had more.
LEICESTER V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Along with Liverpool, Manchester City and Wolves – Leicester are one of four sides who remain unbeaten in the Premier League. Both sides had to go to penalties to win in the Carabao Cup during the weekend, and this should be a pretty close affair. It would have been slightly disappointing for Bournemouth to draw at home against Sheffield United but they grinded out a 2-1 win over Aston Villa afterwards. Leicester impressed us against Chelsea however we feel that this one will be close and Leicester look a little too short at 1.75. Bournemouth have a good record against the home side and from a value point of view, we’re happy to lay Leicester at 1.75.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Leicester at 1.75.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQLeiBth
MATCH STATS
- Leicester are unbeaten in their last six home league games against Bournemouth (W3 D3 L0), last losing in December 1988 at Filbert Street.
- Bournemouth have only lost one of their eight Premier League matches against Leicester (W2 D5 L1), though it came in their most recent meeting in March 2019.
- Six of Leicester’s seven Premier League goals against Bournemouth have been scored in the second-half, with five of those coming in the final 10 minutes of games.
- Leicester City have lost just one of their last seven Premier League games at the King Power Stadium (W4 D2 L1), keeping a clean sheet in four of their last five.
- Bournemouth have won three of their last six Premier League away games (D1 L2), having lost the previous nine in a row. They’ve netted 15 goals in those six games, as many as they had in their previous 15 games on the road.
- Since Brendan Rodgers’ first game in charge of Leicester in March, no player has scored more Premier League goals than Jamie Vardy (10, level with Raheem Sterling).
- Since the start of last season, Leicester’s James Maddison has created more goalscoring chances than any other player in the Premier League (107); assisting nine goals in the process, four of which have resulted in Jamie Vardy strikes.
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has a 100% win-ratio against Bournemouth, winning all four of the matches he’s faced against the Cherries.
- Ryan Fraser was involved in three of Bournemouth’s goals in their 4-2 home win against Leicester last season (2 goals, 1 assist), one of just two times he’s had a hand in three goals in a Premier League match (also v Brighton in April).
- Bournemouth’s Harry Wilson has scored more league goals from outside the box than other player in the top four tiers of English football since the start of last season (9). He’s looking to become the first ever Welsh player to score in his first three appearances in the Premier League.
MANCHESTER CITY V BRIGHTON
3pm Brighton have started their Premier League campaign well after finishing terribly last season. They have four points after three games and if they continuing playing like they have done, they should definitely stay up this season. Of course, any points from a fixture like this would be an absolute bonus. At the time of writing, Manchester City are trading as short as 1.1 to win! They have an excellent record against Brighton; and it seems like the market has already given them the three points. City came close to landing Any Other in the Correct Score market last weekend away from home and we can see them scoring plenty today. Any Other Home Win is trading 2.3 in the Correct Score market and given the form that City have started the season in; it’s hard to see how Brighton can stop them.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Any Other Home Win at 2.3.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMciBha
MATCH STATS
- Manchester City have won their last five games against Brighton in all competitions, winning all four league games in the previous two seasons and an FA Cup semi-final in April 2019.
- Brighton have never won a league match away at Man City in nine attempts (W0 D2 L7), losing each of their last five in a row.
- Manchester City have gone 17 Premier League games unbeaten since a 1-2 defeat to Newcastle in January, taking 49 points from a possible 51 in that run (W16 D1 L0).
- Brighton have played more league games against reigning top-flight without winning than any other team in English top-flight history (12 – W0 D2 L10).
- Brighton have won just one point from their 36 available in Premier League away games against ‘big six’ sides (W0 D1 L11), earning a 1-1 draw against Arsenal at the Emirates last season. They’ve conceded at least once in each of those games, while finding the net in just three themselves.
- Manchester City have won 16 of their last 17 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday, with the only exception in that run being a 2-3 home loss against Crystal Palace in December 2018.
- Man City striker Sergio Agüero has scored in all three of his Premier League games against Brighton, scoring with all three of his shots on target.
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has scored five Premier League goals this season (joint-most with Teemu Pukki) – only Edin Dzeko (6 in 2011) and Chris Sutton (6 in 1997) have netted more in August in a single year.
- Only one of Man City boss Pep Guardiola’s 32 top-flight defeats as a manager has come against an English manager – losing to Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace in
December 2018 at the Etihad. - Brighton manager Graham Potter faced Manchester City in the FA Cup last season as Swansea boss – despite taking a 2-0 lead, they lost 2-3 and were eliminated at the quarter-final stage.
NEWCASTLE V WATFORD
3pm This is a very interesting fixture! We can’t see anything other than a very close game here and the markets agree – we have the most open market of the day with Newcastle 2.72, Watford 2.96 and the draw 3.35 at the time of writing. Watford finally got their first win of the season during the weekend when beating Coventry 3-0 in the Carabao Cup; however they have had three loses in three games in the Premier League. They have all come against lower to mid-table sides too in West Ham, Everton and Brighton – that has to be a worrying sign and after Newcastle managed to beat Spurs last weekend; they will surely fancy their chances of putting away Watford here. Newcastle played OK against Arsenal on the opening weekend but it was disappointing to see them lose 3-1 to Norwich. We need to see more from Watford to consider backing them this season and we’re going to take a chance with Newcastle at 2.72 – that price looks a little high for home advantage.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Newcastle to beat Watford at 2.72.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQNecWat
MATCH STATS
- Newcastle avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with Watford in 2018-19 (W1 D1 L0), after losing all four matches in the 2015-16 and 2017-18 seasons.
- Watford have won three of their last four away matches against Newcastle in all competitions (W3 D0 L1), after winning just two of their first 17 visits there (W2 D5 L10).
- Watford have lost their last six Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 3-16, their joint-longest losing run in the top-flight (also May 2017). The Hornets last lost seven consecutive league games back in February 1973, in the third tier (9 games).
- Newcastle have lost three of their last four Premier League games at St. James’ Park (W1), after winning the previous five in a row on home soil.
- Watford have lost their first three Premier League games this season; only in 1933-34 and 1934-35 have they lost their opening four league fixtures of a season (both in Third Division South).
- Since beating Cardiff 5-1 in February, Watford have lost five of their last six Premier League away games (W1), netting just four goals in those games.
- Watford have an expected goals (xG) figure of 4.27 in the Premier League this season, but have scored just one goal – the biggest negative difference so far this term. They’ve also had 42 shots (the joint-fifth highest in the competition), with the lowest conversion rate so far (2.4%).
- Watford won their first four Premier League games last season. Only one team in English top-flight history has won their first four league games one season and lost their first four the next – Stoke City in 1905-06 (finished 10th) and 1906-07 (finished 20th and relegated).
- This will be Newcastle manager Steve Bruce’s first Premier League meeting with Watford. He lost his last match against them in all competitions, going down 0-1 at home with Hull in April 2013 in the Championship.
- Watford’s Andre Gray has scored in both of his Premier League starts against Newcastle, with the Hornets winning both such games (November 2017 and May 2018).
WEST HAM V NORWICH
3pm Norwich have had a rollercoaster start to the Premier League! They have seen 14 goals in their last games thus far, and they have impressively scored six goals considering two of their games have come against Liverpool and Chelsea. You can’t expect a side new to the Premier League get points against sides like that; and they beat Newcastle 3-1 in their other fixture. They will give West Ham a good go here; and the odds on the home side look a little short at 1.96. Apart from losing 5-0 to Manchester City on the opening day; West Ham have seen Both Teams To Score in their other two games and looking at how both these sides shape up – we can’t see past Both Teams To Score at 1.5. It looks an absolute banker in the Premier League this weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Both Teams To Score at 1.5.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWhuNor
MATCH STATS
- West Ham have lost none of their last seven home league games against Norwich (W3 D4 L0) since a 0-2 defeat in March 1989 at Upton Park.
- Norwich have won only one of their last 11 matches against West Ham in all competitions (W1 D6 L4).
- Norwich are winless in their last 18 top-flight visits to London (W0 D6 L12), last winning there in April 2012 against Tottenham Hotspur, a 2-1 victory under Paul Lambert.
- West Ham have won four of their last six games in the Premier League (D1 L1), as many as they’d won in their previous 16 (W4 D4 L8).
- West Ham are looking to avoid back-to-back Premier League home defeats for the first time since September 2018, when they lost their opening two home games of 2018-19. They’ve lost seven of their last eight Premier League home games in August (W1).
- Norwich have converted six of their 33 shots in the Premier League so far this season, giving them the best conversion rate in the division (18%). Teemu Pukki has scored five of their six goals (83%) and had 12 of their 33 shots (36%).
- Away from home, Norwich have lost 14 of their last 16 Premier League games (W2), failing to score in 10 of those defeats.
- Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has scored in each of his first three Premier League games (5 goals) and could become the third player to net in his opening four appearances in the competition after Diego Costa and Mick Quinn. The only players to score 6+ goals in their first four PL games are Diego Costa (7), Mick Quinn (6) and Sergio Aguero (6).
- West Ham manager Manuel Pellegrini has never lost against Norwich City in all competitions (W3 D2 L0), remaining unbeaten in all five games as Man City manager between 2013 and 2016.
- Against Watford last time out, Sebastian Haller became the 150th different player to score a Premier League goal for West Ham – more than any other side in the competition.
BURNLEY V LIVERPOOL
5.30pm We end the day with Liverpool traveling to Burnley. The home side have a woeful record against Liverpool; losing eight of the last ten Premier League games here and judging by the way Liverpool have started the season – another win for Klopp’s men should be routine here. Burnley have played OK at the start of the season, beating Southampton, performing well in defeat against Arsenal and drawing with Wolves. They did lose midweek in the Cup; but it’s hard to judge how serious teams take it these days. We can’t see past an easy Liverpool win here and with the goals that they have been scoring; they can cover the handicap here. They’re currently trading 1.99 -1.5 goals and that looks absolutely massive. Liverpool look so impressive going forward this season; and we should see more goals from them here.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 1.99.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBlyLiv
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have lost eight of their 10 Premier League games against Liverpool (W1 D1 L8), winning 2-0 at Turf Moor in August 2016.
- Liverpool have won four of their five away Premier League visits to Turf Moor against Burnley (W4 D0 L1), winning 3-1 last season.
- Since picking up three consecutive wins between March and April, Burnley have won just one of their last seven Premier League games (W1 D2 L4).
- Liverpool have won 12 consecutive league games for the first time since October 1990 under Kenny Dalglish – they’ve never won 13 in a row in their league history.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in 20 Premier League games (W16 D4 L0) and have lost just once in their last 42 in the competition (W34 D7 L1), a 1-2 defeat to Man City in January.
- Liverpool are looking to become just the sixth team in English top-flight history to win their first four league games in consecutive campaigns, after Newcastle (94-95 and 95- 96), Arsenal (03-04 and 04-05), Chelsea (04-05 and 05-06, and 09-10 and 10-11) and Manchester City (15-16 and 16-17).
- Liverpool are unbeaten in 10 Premier League games played in August, winning the last eight in a row (D2), though the last team to beat them in the month were Burnley back in 2016 despite the Reds’ having 80% possession that day.
- Only Sergio Agüero (16) and Sadio Mané (15) have scored more Premier League goals in 2019 than Burnley’s Ashley Barnes (13). Indeed, Barnes has scored in each of his last four Premier League matches (5 goals), while no Burnley player has ever netted in five in a row in the competition.
- 33% of Burnley striker Ashley Barnes’ Premier League goals have been against ‘big six’ opposition (12/36). Indeed, since his debut in August 2014, he’s one of just five players to have scored a Premier League goal against all six such sides (Sadio Mane, Gylfi Sigurdsson, Jamie Vardy and Georginio Wijnaldum).
- Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino scored home and away against Burnley last season, netting three goals in total. He’s one goal away from becoming the first Brazilian to score 50 goals in the Premier League.
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