CHAMPIONS DAY COUNTDOWN: Daqman’s countdown to the British Champions meeting at Ascot on Saturday starts today with a weather check that reveals plans to save the day amid heavy-ground worries. He looks at how that would affect the big sprint.
ACCOUNTS CHECK
Daqman 79, Pricewise 36 (Daqman + 388, Pricewise – 575 to 10pt stakes)
Bulls-eye naps (8-16) 50% (256pts profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (24-39) 61% (89pts profit to 20-point stake)
CHAMPIONS FOR HURDLES TRACK
Worst ever Ascot ground. That’s the diagnosis (forecast officially heavy; some waterlogging at the moment) for Saturday’s Champions Day. The prognosis is some better days, some sunshine, but also some showers.
An Ascot spokesman said this morning: ‘It is the softest and wettest in living memory, and we will have to utilise some of the inner hurdles tracks for a couple of races to make sure we get the show on the road.’
Such a potential bog has its most serious effect on sprints. Out of 23 currently declared for the opening British Sprints Championship, 14 (below) have won on soft ground; just nine have won more than once in soft; only two have scored on heavy. Some simply don’t act at all unless the going is on top.
These are the soft-ground winners for that opening race. Later races will be subject to Tuesday’s declarations. I shall also be looking at the draw effect when the ground is bad.
1.35 Ascot, Saturday (British Champions Sprint)
Only soft-heavy ground winners listed (in ratings order)
119 Dream Of Dreams (1-5 on soft) Sir Michael Stoute
116 Sands Of Mali (3-5, one on heavy) Richard Fahey
115 Invincible Army (1-4) James Tate
114 The Tin Man (1-6, one on heavy) James Fanshawe
114 Hello Youmzain (2-2) Kevin Ryan
113 One Master (2-2) William Haggas
113 Cape Byron (2-3) Roger Varian
112 Brando (3-10) Kevin Ryan
112 Forever In Dreams (1-3) Aidan Fogarty
111 Speak In Colours (2-7) Joseph O’Brien
109 Keystroke (1-3) Stuart Williams
108 Donjuan Triumphant (3-13) Andrew Balding
108 Librisa Breeze (2-7) Dean Ivory
101 Urban Beat (2-4, both on heavy) Johnny Murtagh
WHOOSH FOR TARBOOSH
➡️ There were further ominous signs for Ascot’s Champions Day card when nearby Windsor were forced to call off their Monday card due to waterlogging.
1.20 Musselburgh There’s no escape from the testing conditions with it set to ride soft at Musselburgh.
Just six runners contest the opening handicap over five furlongs and despite it being the minimum trip it’s likely you’ll need to find a horse that has plenty of stamina in the prevailing conditions.
There are major concerns about all of those at the head of the market.
Not On Your Nellie was a good enough third over course and distance on her nursery debut last month but conditions are softer today and there is a question mark over the form of her trainer Nigel Tinkler.
Wade’s Magic seemed to struggle on heavy ground at Nottingham last time out when beaten 10 lengths and although the drop back in trip should help, his overall profile doesn’t inspire confidence at current prices.
Carmel has the first time blinkers but no experience on ground as testing as this and comes here off the back of a poor run at Wolverhampton.
A chance is taken with the lightly raced Garnock Valley who might improve for being in a handicap for the first time. She has never started at less than 50/1 in four starts but has hinted at ability and a starting mark of 56 looks fair enough. She’s proving popular in the market and I’ll go for a WIN 10 return on BETDAQ on both the win and place markets.
2.20 Musselburgh Tarboosh looks the nap on the card for trainer Kevin Stott.
He finished runner-up in this last year (and is now 3lb lower in the weights) and should be better suited by the softer conditions today. He arrives in good form with a soft ground win at Beverley followed by a nose second at Haydock – a three runner event where Copper Knight finished third and should again be held by the nap.
8.25 Wolverhampton Conditions of the race are for those who have not won a flat race in 2019 so one of them will finally get off the mark.
If there’s any justice that will be Forbidden Dance who has several good placed efforts to her name, including when second to Gold Arch last time out.
The blinkers were on for the first time that day and seemed to help so they are retained. She is preferred to Guroor who looks in the grip of the handicapper, especially after she has been raised 3lb for her Kempton third last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 1.4pts win and 2.5pts place (both win 10) GARNOCK VALLEY (1.20 Musselburgh)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) TARBOOSH (2.20 Musselburgh)
BET 3.0pts win FORBIDDEN DANCE (8.25 Wolverhampton)
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