DAQMAN HITS 5-1 WINNER AND NAPS HAT-TRICK: Daqman landed his naps hat-trick in style yesterday, scoring a seven-lengths touch at 11-4. His big winner, Touch Kick, followed Sirobbie (WON 5-1) to give him 28 points profit on the day from two winning races out of three. It was four naps out of five this week:
WON 11-4 TOUCH KICK (Friday nap)
WON 11-8 PROGRESSIVE RATING (Thursday nap)
WON 9-4 GLORY AND FORTUNE (Wednesday nap)
WON 10-11 TARBOOSH (Monday nap)
ACCOUNTS UPDATE
Daqman 79, Pricewise 36 (Daqman + 388, Pricewise – 575 to 10pt stakes)
Bulls-eye naps (8-16) 50% (256pts profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (24-39) 61% (89pts profit to 20-point stake)
NOW CHECK OUT CHAMPIONS-DAY BETDAQ VALUE: A potential mudbath it may be but champions still abound at Ascot as they bid for the season’s titles from sprint to long-distance decider. Daqman’s race-by-race guide gives the list below and creates the headlines beneath:
- Official top rated of soft-ground winners
- Draw effect
- Stats
- Daqman’s form analysis
- BETDAQ value
- ‘My 1-2-3’
🔹 MEET THE CHALLENGE AT 11.0
🔹 DARE TO BUY STRADIVARIUS?
🔹 TAKE FRANKIE’S STAR CHOICE
🔹 REVENANT’S SO UNDERRATED
🔹 CORONET DESERVES A CROWN
🔹 KICK FOR HOME WITH GOSDEN
MEET THE CHALLENGE AT 11.0
1.35 Ascot (British Champions Sprint) Soft-heavy ground winners (in official-ratings order):
118 Dream Of Dreams (1-5 on soft) Sir Michael Stoute, William Buick
118 Hello Youmzain (2-2) Kevin Ryan, James Doyle
117 The Tin Man (1-6, on heavy) James Fanshawe, Oisin Murphy
DRAW: Three 3 to 6; seven 9 to 14
STATS: Just one winner aged older than five.
DAQMAN: One Master (Prix de la Foret) was an Arc-meeting winner on very soft ground. He’s been given 115, arguably mean on his staying-on length and a quarter behind Advertise (119) at Deauville, giving that one a pound.
Advertise has no form on soft-heavy ground but has had a special ‘deep’ strip made for him at home – ‘seemed to enjoy going through it’ – and he holds Forever In Dreams and Hello Youmzain on Commonwealth Cup form (Ascot good to soft).
Cape Byron (113) is a Group-3 CD winner on soft, beating Donjuan Triumphant who was third to Sands Of Mali (116) in this race race last year on soft.
Speak In Colours, who was leading in One Master’s 7f Prix de la Foret at the 6f stage, had a length or so verdict over Downforce at The Curragh but Downforce was belittled (nearly five lengths) by Make A Challenge over the same CD six days ago.
Make A Challenge, who has improved 32lb in five starts (79 to 111), has yet to race at Group level but there’s no doubt he’s been winning like a Group horse.
BETDAQ VALUE: I find myself with the two recent winners on testing ground, One Master at around 6-1 (noticeably shorter than Advertise) and Make A Challenge, both improvers. If they’d had hard races, I would be sceptical but they were easy masters on their day. The 11.0 Make A Challenge appeals most for value but you have to back two in any sprint.
MY 1-2-3: Make A Challenge, One Master, Advertise
DARE TO BUY STRADIVARIUS?
2.10 Ascot (British Champions Long-Distance Cup) Soft-heavy ground winners listed (in official-ratings order):
121 Stradivarius (2-3 on soft) John Gosden, Frankie Dettori
118 Kew Gardens (1-3) Aidan O’Brien, Donnacha O’Brien
111 Capri (3-5, two on heavy), Aidan O’Brien, Seamie Heffernan
111 Royal Line (2-5, one on heavy), John Gosden, Robert Havlin
DRAW: Seven out of nine from stalls 1-4
DAQMAN: We’ve endlessly praised Enable and given strident support to Stradivarius. But both – and so many others – heap the accolades on John Gosden, who has countered the great Irish invasion of Aidan O’Brien, both deserving mention alongside the all-time greats. They clash again here.
Stradivarius (Gosden) was eight lengths ahead of Capri (O’Brien) over 2m 4f in a soft-ground Gold Cup here at Ascot but, if the trainer is right, must be preferred to last year’s Queen’s Vase winner here, Kew Gardens. O’Brien is quoted as saying that ‘soft ground isn’t his thing.’
BETDAQ VALUE: Cleonte has won at Ascot over 2m 5f and has scored on very soft ground. Maybe this 76.0 offer is the one to place behind Stradivarius or do you dare try to buy 63 for 100 Stradivarius?
The trouble with Enable and Stradivarius is that they keep one winning at prices you can’t afford.
MY 1-2-3: Stradivarius, Cleonte, Capri
TAKE FRANKIE’S STAR CHOICE
2.45 Ascot (British Champions Fillies and Mares) Soft-heavy ground winners listed (in official-ratings order):
115 Anapurna (2-2 on soft) John Gosden, William Buick
114 Star Catcher (2-2) John Gosden, Frankie Dettori
113 Delphinia (1-4) Aidan O’Brien, Seamie Heffernan
DRAW: No effect
STATS: Three-year-olds 6-9 ahead of four-year-olds.
DAQMAN: Fleeting earns a rating (113) which puts her in the picture and, although she hasn’t won on soft-heavy, she was beaten only a short-neck in the Opera at the Arc meeting on very soft.
However, she has never won at today’s trip and has been beaten by Anapurna (once) and Star Catcher (three times), with bridesmaid figures of 322402, since her third in the Epsom Oaks.
Frankie Dettori prefers the lightly-raced CD winner Star Catcher to Anapurna, whom she beat in the Vermeille, even though Anapurna wasn’t at her best that day after a long break, either side of which she won the Epsom Oaks (Pink Dogwood a neck second) and the Royallieu at the Arc meeting by little more than a length from Delphinia.
Steady improver of the race is Tarnawa, who has won, progressively, in Group 3 and on the last day Group 2 on soft. Needs more.
BETDAQ VALUE: With the BETDAQ orange showing 105% as I write, everything’s value alongside the bookies fixed odds! I have to go with Frankie’s choice, Star catcher over Anapurna.
MY 1-2-3: Star Catcher, Anapurna, Delphinia
REVENANT’S SO UNDERRATED
3.20 Ascot (QE 11 Stakes, British Champions Mile) Soft-heavy ground winners listed (in official-ratings order):
120 The Revenant (4-6 on soft, 3 on very soft or heavy) F-H Graffard, Pierre-Charles Boudot
117 Lord Glitters (3-6, one on heavy) David O’Meara, Daniel Tudhope
114 Century Dream (4-7, one on heavy) Simon Crisford, William Buick
114 Happy Power (2-4) Andrew Balding, Silvestre De Sousa
DRAW: Fields large and small show an advantage for those 5, 6, 7 and 8 off the rail (seven winners) with two drawn 2.
STATS: Three-year-olds best (70%), with five and over on only 10%.
DAQMAN: Official ratings play down the value of The Revenant’s win at the Arc de Triomphe meeting. Though he beat 115 and 114 horses easily by a total of more than five lengths, giving him notionally anything up to 126, he will run off 120, a more sober view for one running his first Group 1 today.
But Benbatl is raised 3lb to 126 for winning a Group 2 at Newmarket. His form figures for anything with ‘soft’ in the going return is 200.
Even if he acts on the very soft ground, his front-running style will be against him; surely the conditions will prohibit his making all, as a five-year-old from gate 13.
Magna Grecia won the Doncaster Futurity on good to soft as a juvenile and his breeding holds hope of his performing well on soft. He hasn’t been seen since an injury in the Irish 2,000 after winning the Newmarket Classic but is sure to be ready for this. The one stall is a worry.
The Revenant made it six in a row, and eight out of 10 (and two places), when taking the Group-2 Daniel Wildenstein at the Arc meeting. I rate him up to Group-1 standard and jockey Pierre-Charles Boudot seems very confident because of the ground conditions.
Most of those I’ve mentioned are high drawn. If there is a shock it could be from Royal Ascot (on soft) CD winner Move Swiftly (stall 4), who wears cheekpieces on her return, or King Of Change, 2,000 Guineas runner-up who was back to form at Sandown.
My 1-2-3: The Revenant, Magna Grecia, Move Swiftly
CORONET DESERVES A CROWN
4.00 Ascot (Champion Stakes, British Champions Middle Distance) Soft-heavy ground winners listed (in official-ratings order):
122 Magical (2-7 ) Aidan O’Brien, Donnacha O’Brien.
115 Coronet (1-4, one on heavy) John Gosden, Frankie Dettori.
114 Addeybb (3-7, one on heavy) William Haggas, James Doyle.
DRAW: No advantage in a small field.
STATS: 3, 4, 5. Group 1 winner or second.
DAQMAN: There was only a length between Magical and Coronet in last year’s Fillies And Mares, also run on the soft. Coronet, conceding 6lb weight for age, was given too much to do by Olivier Peslier (Dettori was on the favourite who was her stablemate).
In only her third and fourth runs since, Coronet landed back-to-back Group-1s in the late summer, including on heavy on the last day.
This is Magical’s ninth race of the year, in which she’s run her third second to Enable. She’s been beaten by Crystal Ocean here at Ascot and was then out back in the Arc, in her only runs on the soft. Arc runners have a poor record afterwards in the same season.
Addeybb loves deep ground but has no Group-1 placed form. He has improved according to Press pundits but not according to the ratings.
He was off 117 between May 2018 and the same time this year, dropping to 112 before he won a Listed here at Ascot but being put back up to 114.
The handicapper has tweaked Coronet to 115.
BETDAQ VALUE: Addeybb was easy to back at 7.2 this morning, Magical too short at 2.66. I settled for 4.8 about Coronet.
My 1-2-3: Coronet, Addeybb, Magical
KICK FOR HOME WITH GOSDEN
4.40 Ascot (Balmoral Handicap) Soft-heavy ground winners listed (in official-ratings order):
110 Lord North (1-1 on soft) John Gosden, Frankie Dettori. Drawn 20
107 Kynren (3-5) David Barron, Ben Curtis. Drawn 19
105 Mitchum Swagger (2-8) Ralph Beckett, Rob Hornby. Drawn 4
DRAW: No winner of this race has been drawn higher than 10. The result by stall in the last five seasons, last year first: 8-15-7 (20 ran, soft); 3-18-17 (20), 1-9-16 (19), 4-13-12 (20), 4-13-12 (20), 10-12-13 (27, heavy).
STATS: Only horses aged four and five win this. Three-year-olds have finished 0004000220002.
DAQMAN: Amadeo Modigliani was beaten in a hood and first-time tongue tie; and has won only his maiden, always a bad sign. I’ve written those words 31 times this Flat season and only one has won.
Lord North, Kynren, Escobar, Pogo and Arctic Sound will need luck as well as rodeo jockeyship to score from the high five stalls. No high five after this!
The tough but tricky Kynren was a rare winner for himself and for David Barron at Ascot on the last day (7f; this is 1m). I have swerved him and his stablemate, Clon Coulis, since that one won for Fortune Cookies early in the season. Barron might pull him out of the hat, too, but I doubt it happening twice.
Kick On (arted 108) started the season well (good run in the Guineas) and was back to form on the last day, taking a Group 3 on softish ground at Salisbury.
Glen Shiel has won a Listed on very soft ground and gave a lump of weight when runner-up at Goodwood.
BETDAQ VALUE: Assuming the draw works out, Kick On is the value of the day for me at 15.0 and Glen Shiel too big at 27.0 (total orange percentage at time of writing 104).
My 1-2-3: Kick On, Glen Shiel, Clon Coulis
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.35 Ascot (win 50, win 30)
BET 5pts win MAKE A CHALLENGE
BET 6pts win ONE MASTER
2.10 Ascot (win 100, win 10 a place)
BET 1.25pts win and 1.75pts place CLEONTE
2.45 Ascot (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) STAR CATCHER
3.20 Ascot (win 20, win 10)
BET 4.5pts win THE REVENANT
BET 2pts win MAGNA GRECIA
4.00 Ascot (win 30)
BET 7.75pts win CORONET
4.40 Ascot (win 50, win 30)
BET 3.5pts win KICK ON
BET 1pt win and place GLEN SHIEL
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