FAVOURITES FLOP WORLDWIDE BUT PUNTERS UP AT DOWN ROYAL: Daqman’s hopes of a two-year-olds revival by Aidan O’Brien at home and abroad were dashed all day yesterday in 11 hours when just one outright favourite won on the Flat feature cards at Newmarket, Newcastle and Santa Anita. Only punters betting at Down Royal (jumps) were laughing with five winning favourites and one joint from seven races.
ACCOUNTS UPDATE:
Daqman 82, Pricewise 39 (Daqman + 311, Pricewise – 510 to 10pt stakes)
Bulls-eye naps (8-16) 50% (256pts profit to recommended stakes)
Supernaps (26-44) 59% (50pts profit to 20-point stake)
BREEDERS CUP DAY 2: WAIT FOR A ONE AND ONLY AMERICAN NAP: Daqman follows yesterday’s example and naps a Fortune Cookie prospect at Down Royal (there’s another from the list at Ascot). His American best bet is sole runner for a trainer who is 3-6 in the Breeders Cup. If you want to cut down your bets, and stay with the old pattern, the naps are your one and onlys. Headlines:
🔹 WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED
🔹 HERE’S A CHAMPION AT WORK
🔹 VINNDICATION FOR VICTORY
🔹 UNI FOR STUDENTS OF FORM
🔹 HE’S THE OLD ONE AND ONLY
WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED
1.35 Ascot Colin Tizzard (Pingshou) is still waiting for a breakthrough, missing strike badly with his last six favourites finishing F222F2, and Gary Moore (Diable De Sivola) is on a lowly 7% (3-43)
But Tom George (2-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (3-5) have been among the winners in the last couple of days. Like most of this field, Tom’s Doctor Dex is making his chase debut; Nigel’s Earlofthecotswolds fell on his first fencing experience at Market Rasen.
Darling Maltaix is a keen sort so may need this to take the freshness out of him. I’ll go for Doctor Dex, who went to the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals as a hurdler: 7.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
2.05 Newmarket (Horris Hill Stakes) It’s a long time since giants like Persian Bold, Kris and Kalaglow won this in the space of four years but we still have some expectation of the race, and last year it produced the Greenham winner.
It’s not a Ballydoyle race and no favourite has scored in the decade, so I would be looking for something like a Dubawi to take a leap forward: Boccaccio maybe. Or Tom Collins (we know he won’t be shaken or stirred by soft ground): BETDAQ 27.0.
2.10 Ascot (Byrne Group Chase) Speredek goes well fresh and Nigel Hawke is 2-2 still standing. Nine seconds on his CV brand Caid Du Lin a bridesmaid.
Arkle fourth Clondaw Castle (BETDAQ 6.0), who is 3-4 after a break, could be another one for Tom George, but Alan King does very well at this meeting and Ballywood (11.5 offers) hasn’t been out of the first four in his last seven starts.
HERE’S A CHAMPION AT WORK
2.25 Down Royal (Ladbrokes Champion Chase) The happy band of ‘Obeaux’ horses, which originated at Angers in northern France, has a family get-together here with Alpha Des Obeaux and Clan Des Obeaux in competition for this 88,000-euro prize.
But as I reported in my horses-to-follow prelude to Fortune Cookies 2020, I think Delta Work has the makings of a star.
I dared to say ‘don’t miss him’ for this Ladbrokes Champion Chase, won in the last 10 years by such as Kauto Star and Don Cossack.
He’s certainly from the right yard: Gordon Elliott has a 50% record in this race in the last six seasons.
Winner of the Drinmore at Fairyhouse and the champion novice at Punchestown among four out of five over fences, he’s already 11lb ahead of his hurdles mark, despite being winner of the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham.
2.45 Ascot Alan King has won this three times in seven seasons and is actually on a race hat-trick here with Lisp, a winner first run back last November and subsequently going close in some top events.
Adjali has a similar profile but has slipped in the ratings, whereas Lisp has steadily improved. I took 10.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
VINNDICATION FOR VICTORY
3.20 Ascot (Autumn Gold Cup) Here’s another prospective Fortune Cookie, Vinndication. I reported when compiling the list that, though the Vinnie Roe gelding won six in a row, trainer Kim Bailey always thought he’d do better raised in trip to 3m. Here’s his chance. He’s won first time in November two years running.
Mister Malarkey and Black Corton were both on the list at one time or other last season, but their stables are not hot right now and they were both easy to back this morning, while Vinndication was strong market leader from 5.0.
3.40 Wetherby (Charlie Hall Chase) A race that launched giants (Silvinicao Conti, Cue Card, Bristol De Mai) already has Definitly Red on its roll of honour.
Though he’s 10 now and yet to take a Grade 1, Definitly Red’s Grade-2 form, hurdles and fences, is 1231111, still standing.
He may still have too much foot for Welsh Grand National winner Elegant Escape (stable out of form) and Scottish National runner-up, Ballyoptic.
But La Bague Au Roi, a strong favourite at BETDAQ 4.2 this morning, won back to back at novice Grade 1 level at Kempton and Leopardstown. He’s won six times after a break, including 4-4 on autumn reappearances.
It’s a cracking contest, and you had every chance of value within the offers about your choice this morning, with the BETDAQ orange on a 102% overround.
Think about it when you look at the 123% SP highs of Santa Anita, where you know very little about the form.
UNI FOR STUDENTS OF FORM
🇺🇸 8.54 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Filly And Mare, Turf) I think there will be money for 8.8 morning BETDAQ offer Imprimis (7.33 race) and improver Fanny Logan at 14.5 is also big, both for Frankie Dettori.
But this fillies and mares race hinges on Sistercharlie, who just got home in in last year from 111-rated raider Wild Illusion.
Now she meets Curragh 1m 2f Pretty Polly winner Iridessa and Sun Chariot winner Billesdon Brook, both rated 116. Billesdon Brook had Iridessa in third in the one-mile Sun Chariot but this is another quarter-mile at speed. I took 9.8.
🇺🇸 10.20 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Mile, Turf) Supplemented for $100,000 dollar, Uni, though aged five, is the big improver here, as track record-breaker at Keeneland in a Grade-1.
A 5.0 offer in the BETDAQ orange this morning, she is expected to avenge her earlier Saratoga defeat by Canada’s Got Stormy, who was second to El Tormenta in the Woodbine Mile.
Uni’s stable also runs one-time Royal Ascot winner (when with John Gosden), Without Parole, and Richard Fahey sends over Leopardstown Group-2 scorer Space Traveller.
Circus Maximus, who won this year’s running of the same Group 1 at Ascot as Without Parole, is considered Aidan O’Brien’s last big hope for the meeting but was beaten on his only two runs on firm ground.
HE’S THE OLD ONE AND ONLY
🇺🇸 11.40 Santa Anita (Breeders Cup Turf) Defeat for Circus Maximus would leave O’Brien hoping for a resurgence from substandard-Epsom-Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck.
The home hero with six wins in a row, Bricks And Mortar, also looks vulnerable, because trying a new trip.
I shall go for Old Persian (BETDAQ 4.6), with a style of racing that suits the track and who seems transformed when sent travelling, winning the Sheema Classic in Dubai and the Northern Dancer in Canada for Charlie Appleby, who has a 3-6 Breeders Cup record. This is his only runner at the meeting.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.35 Ascot (win 10)
BET 1.6pts win DOCTOR DEX
2.05 Newmarket (win 30, win 10 place)
BET 1pt win and 2pts place TOM COLLINS
2.10 Ascot (win 20 each)
BET 4pts win CLONDAW CASTLE
BET 2pts win BALLYWOOD
2.25 Down Royal (supernap)
BET 20pts win DELTA WORK
2.45 Ascot (win 20)
BET 2pts win LISP
3.20 Ascot (win 20)
BET 5pts win VINNDICATION
3.40 Wetherby (win 10)
BET 3pts win LA BAGUE AU ROI
6.55 Santa Anita (win 10)
BET 5pts win COVFEFE
7.33 Santa Anita (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win IMPRIMIS
8.10 Santa Anita (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win DIAMOND OOPS
8.54 Santa Anita (win 20)
BET 2.7pts win IRIDESSA
10.20 Santa Anita (win 20)
BET 5pts win UNI
11.40 Santa Anita (win 30 American nap)
BET 8.5pts win OLD PERSIAN
12.44 Santa Anita (win 10)
BET 2pts win CODE OF HONOUR
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