PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League action with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with the South coast derby between Brighton and Bournemouth.
BRIGHTON V BOURNEMOUTH
12.30pm The Premier League games are coming thick and fast this week! We kick off another busy day of action with Brighton hosting Bournemouth after both sides played well against Spurs and Arsenal. Brighton lead at HT away to Spurs but unfortunately for them couldn’t hold on for a result. While Bournemouth got a point against Arsenal – perhaps a disappointing point these days considering they had home advantage and how bad Arsenal have been. This should be a close affair.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Brighton 1.86, Bournemouth 4.6 and the draw is 4.0. While Brighton played well on Boxing Day, they have really struggled up pick up points recently after a bright start to the season. Bournemouth have been struggling too and in-between some woeful performances, they have picked up wins against the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United. We feel Brighton are too short here at 1.86 – we expect a closer game than those odds suggest between two average sides desperate to distances themselves away from the bottom five.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Brighton at 1.86.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbribou
MATCH STATS
- Brighton are winless in their four Premier League matches with Bournemouth (D1 L3), losing this exact fixture 0-5 last season.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five away games against Brighton in all competitions (W2 D3), since a 2-3 loss in January 2008 in League One.
- After winning their final league game of 2016 and 2017, Bournemouth lost their final Premier League of 2018, 1-4 at Manchester United.
- Brighton have lost nine Premier League home games in 2019, more than any other side in the competition.
- Bournemouth won their last Premier League away game, 1-0 against Chelsea. They last won back-to-back league games on the road in October 2018. The Cherries are also unbeaten in their last three Premier League away games against fellow south coast sides, netting 11 goals in that run (W2 D1).
- Brighton have won just one of their last eight Premier League games (D2 L5), beating Arsenal 2-1 in December. The Seagulls are winless in their last four (D2 L2), throwing away a lead in three of those games.
- Bournemouth have won just one of their last eight Premier League games (D1 L6). Indeed, the Cherries have won fewer points over the last eight Premier League games than any other side (4).
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored in all three of his league games at the Amex Stadium (1 in Championship, 2 in Premier League), also providing two assists in the Cherries 5-0 win at the ground last season.
- Five of Brighton’s last nine Premier League goals have been scored by defenders (Adam Webster x2, Lewis Dunk x2 and Shane Duffy). These five strikes have also all come from set-piece situations.
- Bournemouth’s Dan Gosling has scored two goals in six Premier League appearances this season, as many as he netted in 25 games in the competition last term.
NEWCASTLE V EVERTON
3pm Carlo Ancelotti got off to a winning start as Everton manager on Boxing Day with a 1-0 home win against Burnley. Everton created very little prior to that against Arsenal, and while a game against Burnley was always going to be tight – they grinded out a win. We expect something similar here. Newcastle are generally a tough side to break down; although you wouldn’t have known that on Boxing Day when Manchester United put four past them at Old Trafford. Shipping four goals is out of character for Newcastle recently and they have improved a lot since the thrashing against Leicester. Everton might grind out a win here but given how little they are creating, we’re happy to back under 2.5 goals at 1.83.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Under 2.5 goals at 1.83.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQneweve
MATCH STATS
- Newcastle came from 0-2 down to win this exact fixture 3-2 last season – they’ve not won back-to-back league games against Everton since December 2002 (three).
- Everton have won four of their last six Premier League away games against Newcastle (L2), having won just three of their first 18 visits to St James’ Park in the competition (D4 L11).
- Newcastle have won just one of their previous 14 final Premier League games in a calendar year (excluding campaigns in which they were relegated), with their sole victory in that time coming against Everton in 2014 (D2 L11).
- Everton haven’t won their final Premier League game of a calendar year since 2013 (2-1 vs Southampton), losing four and drawing once since.
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last eight home Premier League games (W4 D4), last enjoying a longer run at St James’ Park in the competition between January-April 2012 (9 games).
- Everton have won just one of their last 12 Premier League away games (D4 L7), beating Southampton 2-1 in November. The Toffees are without a clean sheet on the road in eight league games, having kept a shutout in five of their previous nine away from home.
- Newcastle have conceded just seven goals in Premier League home games this season, their fewest after nine top-flight games at St James’ Park since the 2003-04 campaign (5). Indeed, Newcastle have shipped fewer home goals than any other Premier League side this season.
- Following their 1-4 defeat at Man Utd last time out, Newcastle are looking to avoid losing back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since their opening two games of the season.
- Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored six goals in his 17 Premier League games this season, equalling his best goalscoring return in a single top-flight campaign (six in 35 appearances in 2018-19).
- Carlo Ancelotti won his first Premier League match in charge of Everton – only Joe Royle in 1994 and David Moyes in 2002 have won their first two in charge of the Toffees in the competition.
SOUTHAMPTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm This should be a good game. Southampton had a superb win away to Chelsea on Boxing Day, and that was a massive three points for them. It really shows how tight things are at the bottom of the table because two wins has moved them into 14th from the bottom three! Obviously confidence will be sky high after a win away to Chelsea, but they will have a tough time breaking down this Crystal Palace side. Palace notched up another win with a 2-1 home win against West Ham on Boxing Day – conceding only their third goal in six games. This excellent record at the back though has come at a cost of attacking flair. They haven’t scored many goals this season, and while they might be able to stop Southampton here – it’s hard to see them outscoring the Saints. Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 looks the value in this one, we expect a very close affair between two solid teams and there shouldn’t be a lot in this one.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Under 2.5 goals at 1.84.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsoucry
MATCH STATS
- Southampton have won 60% of their Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (12/20), their highest win rate against an opponent they’ve faced at least 10 times in the competition.
- Having lost seven of their first eight away Premier League games against Southampton, Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last two top-flight visits to St Mary’s (W1 D1).
- Southampton haven’t won their last league game in a calendar year since 2010 (4-1 vs Huddersfield in League One), drawing three and losing five since. Their last such victory as a Premier League side was back in 2002 (2-1 vs Sunderland).
- Crystal Palace haven’t won their last league game in a calendar year since 2011 (1-0 vs Millwall in the Championship), drawing five and losing two since. Their only such victory in the Premier League was in 1992 against Middlesbrough.
- Southampton have won two of their last three Premier League home games (L1), having failed to win any of their previous eight at St Mary’s (D3 L5).
- Crystal Palace have won nine away league games in 2019 – only in five calendar years have they reached double figures for away league victories (12 in 1960, 11 in 1961 and 2015, and 10 in 1996 and 1997).
- Just 33% of Southampton’s Premier League points have been won in home games this season (7/21), the lowest ratio in the division. Indeed, in a league table based purely on home games, Saints would be bottom with seven points and a goal difference of -15.
- Crystal Palace have scored a league-low four Premier League goals in the first half of games this season. Indeed, the Eagles have netted 76% of their goals after half-time this season, a league-high ratio (13/17).
- Danny Ings has scored four goals in his last six Premier League home games for Southampton, as many as he had in his first 16 for Saints at St Mary’s Stadium.
- Jordan Ayew’s five Premier League goals this season have been worth nine points to Crystal Palace; only two players have ever had more valuable goals in a single Premier League campaign for the Eagles (Andrew Johnson 15 in 2004-05 and Christian Benteke 12 in 2016-17).
WATFORD V ASTON VILLA
3pm This is a huge game. It’s not the most glamorous and the TV companies wouldn’t pick it, but is there a more important game today? After the results on Boxing Day, Watford have moved ahead of Norwich but they still sit five points behind Aston Villa with both of them in the relegation zone. If Villa win, they will have to keep battling but it would be a crippling blow to Watford who would sit eight points away from 18th place. If Watford win, they will fancy catching the other teams and surviving – especially after picking up three points against Manchester United too. There’s so much at stake here, and it’s still early in the season really. Villa picked up a massive three points on Boxing day against Norwich and another win here would cap an excellent Christmas for them. We expect a very close game here, and on balance we just can’t have Watford as short as 2.06 to win this. From a value point of view, we have to lay those odds.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Watford at 2.06.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwatast
MATCH STATS
- Having failed to win any of their first four Premier League meetings with Aston Villa and failing to score each time (D1 L3), Watford won both matches against them the last time they met in 2015-16, both by a 3-2 scoreline.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their nine away league games against Watford (D3 L5), winning 1-0 in the Premier League in August 1999.
- Watford haven’t won their last league game in a calendar year since 2014 (4-2 at Cardiff), drawing two and losing two since.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last seven final league games in a calendar year (D4 L2), beating Middlesbrough 1-0 in the Championship in 2017.
- Watford’s victory against Man Utd in their last home league game ended a run of 12 without a win at Vicarage Road (D5 L7). It was also the first time this season the Hornets had taken the lead in a Premier League home match.
- Aston Villa have only won one of their last 27 Premier League away games (D4 L22), winning 5-1 at Norwich in October. The Villans have won fewer points on the road than any other side in the Premier League this season (4).
- Watford have won four points in their last two Premier League games, as many as they had from the previous 21 available in the competition (W1 D1 L5).
- Watford have conceded more goals from penalties than any other Premier League side this season (5). Meanwhile, Aston Villa are one of just four clubs yet to score from the spot this season.
- Since his debut for the club in January 2018, Gerard Deulofeu has scored more Premier League goals than any other Watford player (14).
- Jack Grealish has both scored more goals (5) and provided more assists (5) in the Premier League than any other Aston Villa player this season. He’s the first player to both score 5+ and assist 5+ goals in a Premier League season for the Villans since Gabriel Agbonlahor in 2011-12.
NORWICH V TOTTENHAM
5.30pm Norwich have had some very important games at the bottom of the table recently, and unfortunately for them they’ve lost them all. Now they find themselves bottom of the Premier League and as each passes they seem to get further away from safety. They have however picked up points recently against Leicester and Arsenal. Which is remarkable considering they lost to Aston Villa and Southampton as well! Spurs found themselves behind on Boxing but pulled the game out of the fire again by outscoring Brighton. It’s hard to see them not conceding at the moment and instead of backing the Spurs win, we much prefer over 2.5 goals at 1.67. Spurs will definitely score against this Norwich side but given their problems at the back, Norwich can find the find too. Overs in the play in this one.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 1.67.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnortot
MATCH STATS
- Norwich have won just one of their eight home Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5), winning 1-0 in February 2014.
- Tottenham won 3-0 in both league meetings with Norwich in the 2015-16 campaign – they last won three in a row against the Canaries in April 1995.
- Tottenham lost their last league game in 2018, going down 1-3 against newly promoted Wolves. They’ve not lost their final league game in consecutive years since 2003.
- Norwich have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (D3 L10), and are winless in six (D2 L4). However, when starting the day bottom of the Premier League table, the Canaries are unbeaten in six games (W5 D1), in a run stretching back to April 2005.
- After a run of 12 Premier League away games without a win, Tottenham have won two of their last three on the road (L1). The Lilywhites are without a clean sheet in 16 Premier League away games, their longest run without one in the top-flight since a run of 20 between April 1976-April 1977.
- Norwich are winless in their last six Premier League home games (D1 L5), and are without a clean sheet in their last 13 at Carrow Road in the competition. Indeed, the Canaries have conceded at least twice in their last eight Premier League home games, the second longest such run in the competition’s history (Wolves, 11 in April 2012).
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored four goals in his two Premier League appearances against Norwich. Indeed, in all competitions since the start of 2014-15, Kane has scored 17 goals in 15 games against sides he’s previously played for (13 in 12 vs Leicester, 4 in 2 vs Norwich, 0 in 1 vs Millwall).
- Tottenham’s Dele Alli has been involved in more goals in all competitions for the club under José Mourinho than any other player (8 – 5 goals, 3 assists).
- Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 135 goals in 199 Premier League appearances. The only players with more in their first 200 matches in the competition are Alan Shearer (145) and Sergio Agüero (138).
- After winning 17 of his first 18 such games (L1), Tottenham boss José Mourinho has lost each of his last three Premier League away games against promoted sides, all with Manchester United in the 2017-18 campaign.
WEST HAM V LEICESTER
5.30pm Leicester were given a footballing lesson on Boxing Day by Liverpool when they lost 4-0 at home, and they’ll surely have a hangover after that. If they had any dreams of winning another Premier League title, they have gone now. Really and truly, if you offered Leicester Champions League football at the start of the season, they surely would have taken it and they look certain to finish in the Top Four so their season is still a success. They just aren’t at the same level as Liverpool, but not many sides are. They can get back to winning ways here against an up-and-down West Ham side. The Hammers lost to Palace on Boxing Day and now they are very close to the bottom three. A loss here and a win or draw for Villa and West Ham will go into the bottom three – we’ll probably see a manager change soon too. Despite not being at the level of City or Liverpool, Leicester have been excellent this season and the 1.93 on them to win here against a poor West Ham side is too big to ignore.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Leicester to beat West Ham at 1.93.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQweslei
MATCH STATS
- West Ham have won just one of their last nine Premier League meetings with Leicester (D4 L4), with their 2-0 victory in May 2018 also their only clean sheet against the Foxes in this run.
- Leicester are unbeaten in their last four away Premier League games against West Ham (W2 D2), having lost seven of their previous eight in the competition (W1).
- Leicester lost their final league games in both 2017 (1-2 vs Liverpool) and 2018 (0-1 vs Cardiff). They last lost their final league game in three consecutive years between 2004-2006.
- Leicester are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games in London (W1 D2) – they’ve never gone four games without defeat in the capital in the competition. Having beaten Crystal Palace 2-0 in their last such game, they’re looking to secure back-to-back league wins in London for the first time since 2015-16 (vs West Ham and Spurs).
- West Ham have lost their last three Premier League home games, last losing four in a row at home in the competition back in January 2006.
- West Ham have lost their last three Premier League home games, conceding three goals in each defeat. Only three teams in Premier League history have conceded 3+ goals in four consecutive home games – Crystal Palace in April 1998, Bradford in February 2001 and Fulham in March 2014. Of those sides, only Crystal Palace and Fulham lost all four games.
- West Ham have dropped a league-high 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, more than they had in the entire season in both 2018-19 (12) and 2017-18 (14).
- Leicester have lost their last two Premier League matches, conceding more goals in these defeats (7) than they had in their previous 11 league matches combined (6).
- Robert Snodgrass has scored three goals in his last nine Premier League appearances for West Ham, more than he had in his first 52 for the Hammers in the competition (2).
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy is the highest Premier League goalscorer in 2019 with 29 goals, and could become just the seventh different player to score as many as 30 in a single calendar year in the competition.
BURNLEY V MANCHESTER UNITED
7.45pm Manchester United impressed on Boxing Day with a 4-1 win over Newcastle, but now away from home we could easily see a totally different Manchester United. You never know what type of United side is going to show up these days, and obviously that makes betting on them difficult. Burnley will definitely make things difficult for them though, they are a solid side – not flashy but hard to beat and will give nothing away. If the same United turn up as they did against Watford, Burnley can win.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Burnley 4.6, Manchester United 1.88 and the draw is 3.85. We have to lay this United price at 1.88. They barely created anything away to Watford and Watford have been very poor this season. Burnley are solid at the back and to be backing United at these odds you’d want to know if they will be at their best. That’s a question even Ole can’t seem to answer these days! We expect another tough away day for United and we’re happy to lay them at the odds.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Manchester United at 1.88.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburmun
MATCH STATS
- Since winning their first ever Premier League meeting with Man Utd in August 2009, Burnley are winless in their subsequent nine against them in the competition (D4 L5).
- Manchester United have conceded just one goal in their five Premier League away games against Burnley, keeping a clean sheet in each of the last four and winning the last three.
- Burnley haven’t lost their last league game in a calendar year since 2012 (0-1 vs Leicester in the Championship), winning three and drawing three since.
- Manchester United haven’t lost their last league game in a calendar year since 2011 (2-3 vs Blackburn Rovers), winning four and drawing three since.
- None of Burnley’s last 16 Premier League home games have finished level, with the Clarets winning eight and losing eight at Turf Moor. No other side is a longer run without a draw at home in the competition
- Manchester United have won just two of their last 13 Premier League away games (D4 L7). They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 14 on the road, while failing to score in four of their last seven away from Old Trafford in the top-flight.
- Burnley have mustered just one shot on target over their last two Premier League games, Jay Rodriguez’s goal against Bournemouth. The Clarets have failed to have a single attempt on target in two different Premier League games this season – only Newcastle (3) have done so in more.
- No side has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Manchester United (2). The Red Devils have conceded at least once in each of their last 14 games, the longest current run in the top-flight.
- Among teenagers in the top five European leagues, only Jadon Sancho (12) has scored more goals in all competitions this season than Manchester United’s Mason Greenwood (8).
- Marcus Rashford is enjoying his best ever goalscoring season in the Premier League for Manchester United, with 11 from his 19 appearances. Meanwhile, only Mohamed Salah has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this term than Rashford (4).
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