2020 VISION: IRISH EYES ON THE PERTEMPS HEATS: Daqman again looks forward to the good times and the feast of jumps festivals. Base your research and possible ante-post bets on his see-how-they-won stats analysis. Yesterday he checked out how placed horses at Cheltenham on Saturday have fared at the festival in March. Today he discovers the source of recent Pertemps Final winners.
JOHNSON OUT: HUGHES HANDED BIG TITLE CHANCE: Richard Johnson is out of the jumps-jockeys’ title race at least until Cheltenham, after breaking his arm in a fall at Exeter yesterday. Brian Hughes is now expected to take over the lead, his title chance now odds on.
JUST A BREEZE FOR TWO WARWICK LIGHTWEIGHTS: Today Daqman spots two horses with such light weights ‘a breeze could blow the saddles off’! Both run at Warwick. One of them is napped.
IRISH EYES ON PERTEMPS HEATS
See how they won! It’s Pertemps day on Friday at Huntingdon, including of course a qualifier for the Pertemps Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham festival in March.
To qualify for the £100,000 showdown, which is on the Thursday, third day at Cheltenham, horses now have to be placed in the first six in one of the heats.
Punters used to puzzle which heat would produce the Final winner. At the start of the decade, consecutive winners in the Final came from a winner, second and two fourths in qualifiers at Haydock, Warwick, Exeter and Kempton.
That didn’t help much. You still had a lot of choice. Much better if you could find just one or two qualifying races hogging the result.
Then the Irish took over and in the last four years have really narrowed it down, with the heats at Leopardstown and Punchestown dominating the outcome at the festival. Their recent winners at Cheltenham have been:
2016 Mall Dini fourth Leopardstown qualifier (December); third Punchestown qualifier January (since run in February)
2017 Presenting Percy fifth Leopardstown qualifier (December); fourth Punchestown qualifier (February)
2018 Delta Work third Punchestown qualifier (February)
2019 Sire Du Berlais sixth Leopardstown qualifier (December)
The first six home in the Leopardstown heat on December 28 with their current prices (check them out) in the BETDAQ Sportsbook were:
1️⃣ Treacysenniscorthy (Robert Widger) 26.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook
2️⃣ Ronald Pump (Matthew J Smith) 15.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook
3️⃣ Stacks Mountain (Henry De Bromhead) 34.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook
4️⃣ Tout Est Permis (Noel Meade) 11.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook
5️⃣ High Sparrow (Joseph O’Brien) 26.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook
6️⃣ The Storyteller (Gordon Elliott) 8.0 BETDAQ Sportsbook
🏇 HOOFNOTE: Don’t forget that Punchestown is home of the BETDAQ Champion Hurdle (May 1). The festival there starts with the Punchestown Champion Chase (April 28), followed by the Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (April 29) and Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (April 30).
HUGHES HANDED TITLE CHANCE
The battle for the jump-jockeys title could be over. Though with three months to run, it’s been handed to Brian Hughes with injury yesterday to champion Richard Johnson.
The scores were 114-111 to Hughes, when Johnson broke his arm, trampled on at Exeter when unseated from Westend Story in the novice chase.
Sam Twiston-Davies is 28 behind the leader, so only a similar stroke of bad luck for Hughes would change the leaderboard yet again.
Jußt recently at Wetherby, 33-year-old Hughes, who has the late Alan Swinbank and Howard Johnson to thank for his rise to fame, rode his 1,000th winner.
There are fewer than 50 days to the Cheltenham Festival, where Johnson’s ‘good thing’ would be Thyme Hill, who fronts the Albert Bartlett betting on the Friday of the big meeting.
That gives Johnson a bit more breathing space but it would be rare feat of riding to return on a winner at the festival!
Hughes has won on three of his four rides and I fancy his chances today on Minella Trump (3.00 Catterick)
RETURN TICKET ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
2.30 Catterick A class-3 novices chase, ‘celebrating Mary Harle’s 100th birthday’. I was born before Arkle but she was born before Golden Miller! Congratulations.
Dream Du Grand Val pulled up at Exeter yesterday and Nico De Boinville now rides Before Midnight, subject of wind ops but dropped back in trip.
The handicapper doesn’t think much of Schiehallion Munro’s two wins and a second, since his return in November (when The Some Dance Kid finished last of five). He’s up a total of only 4lb.
Ruth Jefferson is getting the best out of every runner, according to the Racing Post, and I rate Return Ticket ‘a hidden horse.’
Won three out of four – one bumper and three hurdles- when the ground was no worse than good to soft, which could be the conditions today.
Highly tried over fences, third to Sam Spinner on a tough chasing debut at Wetherby, then outclassed in the Grade-1 Henry V111 Novices Chase at Sandown in December. I took a value-for-money 5.7 in the BETDAQ orange.
2.40 Warwick There are a couple of horses seemingly thrown in at Warwick today. Flowing Cadenza in this, and Hurricane Hero in the 4.15 race.
While Flowing Cadenza has been basking in her handler’s praise after success at Ascot (‘she’s a beautiful, game mare’), the second home has celebrated with a clear-cut win at Plumpton.
Bob Buckler has had just three successes from 21 runners this season, but is a long-time winner of marathon events, the last one the Midlands Grand National of 2018 with Regal Flow. Flowing Cadenza is from the same line.
Good And Hardy, Golden Sovereign and Terrierman have all won one of their last two starts, but have to give up to 17lb to Flowing Cadenza (BETDAQ 3.45).
HURRICANE COULD BREEZE UP..
3.00 Catterick Described by Brian Hughes as a ‘grand sort of horse’, Minella Trump has been favourite every time in his 3-3 sequence of Irish point and back-to-back Sedgefield hurdles.
There are two snags today. One is the poor form of his stable (Don McCain is 0-21, albeit three out of six have placed in the last five days). The other is Annsam.
Annsam won at this level at Taunton in December, when he beat Le Ligerien, twice a handicap winner since (though heavy ground has helped).
4.15 Warwick You wouldn’t want to bet against trainer Olly Murphy winning with the stable cat! Current form: 1133101141, still standing.
Here he is on his local track with Hurricane Hero, who started 33-1, 40-1 and 50-1 in three runs in December which qualified him for today’s handicap.
Backed in to 11-2 last night, Hurricane’s only handicap today is whether a slight breeze will blow the saddle off! He’s set to carry just 10st 4lb and has a 7lb claimer creating an absolute featherweight. I took 5.8.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Catterick (win 20)
BET 4.25pts win RETURN TICKET
2.40 Warwick (win 20)
BET 8pts win (nap) FLOWING CADENZA
3.00 Catterick (win 10)
BET 6pts win MINELLA TRUMP
BET 2.5pts win (stakes saver) ANNSAM
4.15 Catterick (win 10)
BET 2pts win HURRICANE HERO
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