LOW STAKES THE ANSWER TO UPSIDE-DOWN FORM: Daqman’s ‘order in’ for yesterday’s Punchestown Grand National Trial made more sense if you turned it upside down. That’s just what happened to much of the form yesterday so Daqman is back to bronze-level, low stakes tipping today, as he tries to solve puzzles at Doncaster, Ludlow and Punchestown. Headlines:
🔹 NOT EASY TO FINISH IN THE BLACK
🔹 10-1 SPARROW FOLLOWS FINAL PATH
🔹 STAY OUT OF TROUBLE WITH BEAN
🔹 NICKY KNOWS THE VETERANS TRICK
NATIVE RIVER INJURY
⚠️ HEADS UP: Native River has been ruled out for the season and will miss both the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup and Randox Health Grand National.
Colin Tizzard reports that the ten-year-old has picked up a tendon injury.
NOT EASY TO FINISH IN THE BLACK
⚠️ HEADS UP: Typical Irish results in the mud at Punchestown yesterday! Three winners in a row (two chases and a Grade-3 novice hurdle) with their form assessment:
😲 33-1 Yaha Fizz beaten a total of 146 lengths last four starts (hurdles)
😲 14-1 Ifyoucatchmenow beaten 98 lengths last three starts; never won a chase
😲 14-1 Run Wild Fred faller the last day, but beats 8-11 favourite, Lord Royal.
So I’ll forgive you today if you prefer a pin to form assessment. Keep stakes low!
1.40 Punchestown (Quevega Mares Hurdle) Willie Mullins has won the last four of these, including with Annie Power (2016), at a hardly playable 1-20 favourite, and Laurina last year, also odds on.
Laurina, subsequently Champion Hurdle fourth at Cheltenham, returns at the double, after bursting blood vessels in two tries over fences.
Elfile looks an improving second string to Willie’s bow, having run up to the invincible Honeysuckle at the Fairyhouse festival in April.
She had earlier finished sixth in the Dawn Run at Cheltenham and finally flourished here at Punchestown by 10-lengths in the mares’ novices, a decent sequence at three festivals when only five.
Black Tears was a comfortable winner from a big field for the Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap at Leopardstown at the beginning of the month, with Emily Moon an unlucky sixth (twice hampered with three flights to go) and Surin brought down early.
Emily Moon may improve for the extra trip, and Laurina could bounce back, but I see a reversal of the Punchestown one-two on good ground 13 months ago when Elfile beat Black Tears a short-head at levels.
Black Tears, who was favourite that day, now gets 6lb from Elfile on soft-heavy, so it’s all in her favour since the form seems to be holding good. I took 5.6 in the BETDAQ orange.
10-1 SPARROW FOLLOWS FINAL PATH
3.15 Punchestown (Pertemps Qualifier) In the last four years, the heats at Leopardstown and Punchestown have dominated the outcome of the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival. The recent winners at Cheltenham have been:
2016 Mall Dini fourth Leopardstown qualifier (December); third Punchestown qualifier January (now run in February)
2017 Presenting Percy fifth Leopardstown qualifier (December); fourth Punchestown qualifier (February)
2018 Delta Work third Punchestown qualifier (February)
2019 Sire Du Berlais sixth Leopardstown qualifier (December)
First six home in the Leopardstown heat in December were: 1 Treacysenniscorthy (Robert Widger), 2 Ronald Pump (Matthew J Smith), 3 Stacks Mountain (Henry De Bromhead), 4 Tout Est Permis (Noel Meade), 5 High Sparrow (Joseph O’Brien), 6 The Storyteller (Gordon Elliott).
Is it possible that, like Presenting Percy and similar to Mall Dini, the Leopardstown fifth, High Sparrow, could add a third or fourth in today’s Punchestown qualifier and then win at Cheltenham?
The winner at Leopardstown, Treacysenniscorthy, has since taken a big field Grade B handicap this month over the same CD.
We saw yesterday that this meeting in the mud is for pinstickers; very little resembling rational form won some of the races.
But High Sparrow staged both his hurdles wins on heavy ground, one of them here at Punchestown, and was backed last night for today’s race, off a mark right in between the ratings of the last two winners.
I got around 10-1 last night but can claim only 7.1 after sustained support on BETDAQ this morning.
STAY OUT OF TROUBLE WITH BEAN
3.00 Ludlow It’s what they euphemistically term ‘good winter jumping ground’ despite Shropshire Fire Brigade calling a severe flood warning! Ludlow has had its worst flood in 12 years after Storm Dennis.
Nordic Combined (0-11) is a difficult ride. Top Gamble hasn’t scored for nearly four years. Westbrook Bertie has won just a maiden over hurdles. Those three are joint top weight, so how on earth are we to believe that this is a class-3!
The first eight in the handicap are separated by just 3lb, and they contain the winner of his last two starts, Baracalu.
Sounds good until you see that the grey Percy, who ran second to Baracalu in both those races, has been beaten a total of 220 lengths in his six other races since June.
Our only hope is to find an improver or two, if you’ll forgive me for using the word in this context.
Lightly-raced Bean In Trouble (4.0 taken on BETDAQ) might have won a maiden at Wetherby but was not fluent two out. Don’t Shout won at Hereford but the going was good, as it was for John Constable’s successes way back.
NICKY KNOWS THE VETERANS TRICK
3.55 Doncaster I like these intriguing veterans’ chases. So does Venetia Williams and her runner here, Burtons Well, has already won one. That she puts cheekpieces on first time suggests she means business this afternoon.
He’s a useful animal when fresh, with form figures after a break of 12201, still standing, first of them on heavy ground and the last day on soft in a class-2 chase at Aintree. A tasty BETDAQ 9.2 this morning.
Warriors Tale is a Ditcheat outsider for the Grand National again: pulled up four out last year, but a winner over the big fences in the 2018 Grand Sefton.
Interesting that he was runner-up in the old Great Yorkshire here two years ago, so this looks an ideal return on the same Yorkshire track 319 days after that Aintree attempt and after a wind op, but the market says he is unfancied at 17.0.
My Old Gold (BETDAQ 5.7) is two out of three and won here at the December meeting, Nicky Richards no doubt having noticed that 10-year-olds have a big edge in veterans’ races.
The age group has won the last four runnings of this one. Last year’s winner? A Nicky Richards 10-year-old, backed down to 5-2 favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 2pts win BLACK TEARS
3.00 Ludlow (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win (nap) BEAN IN TROUBLE
3.15 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 1.6pts win HIGH SPARROW
3.55 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 2pts win MY OLD GOLD
BET 1.25pts win BURTONS WELL
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