PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League action with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. It kicks off with a cracker as Chelsea host Spurs.
CHELSEA V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm What a cracking way to start the Premier League weekend! Chelsea host Spurs in a London Derby with so much on the line. Manchester United would love a draw between these two, however United winning this weekend is another question! After losing to United, Chelsea are just one point clear of Spurs in fourth and an away win here would be absolutely massive for Jose Mourinho’s men. They suffered a blow when losing at home in the Champions League midweek and their injury worries are ever growing.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Chelsea 1.77, Tottenham 5.0 and the draw is 4.1. Chelsea look very short at 1.77, but when you consider the list of injuries that Spurs have and their away record – it’s hard to lay the home side. Spurs also have a terrible record away to Chelsea. What’s putting us off the Chelsea back is their current run and also they haven’t been at their best at home this season. Given all the problems both sides have, it’s hard not to see goals in this one and with over 2.5 goals trading 1.9 that looks the best place to start this weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Over 2.5 goals at 1.9.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchetot
MATCH STATS
- Chelsea have won their last two Premier League games against Tottenham, last winning three in a row in March 2006, when they were managed by current Spurs boss José Mourinho.
- Tottenham have won just one of their last 33 away games against Chelsea in all competitions (D11 L21), a 3-1 win in April 2018 in a Premier League fixture.
- The away side has won three of the last five Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Spurs (L2), with that occurring just once in the previous 23 games (W1 D9 L13).
- Chelsea have lost seven home games in all competitions this season – they last lost more at Stamford Bridge in a single campaign back in 1985-86 (8).
- Chelsea are winless in four Premier League games (D2 L2), last having a longer such run in the competition between October-December 2012 (7 games).
- Tottenham have won 499 top-flight away games, and could become the seventh team to reach 500 wins on the road after Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, Everton, Aston Villa and Chelsea.
- In the Premier League, Spurs manager José Mourinho has won 79 games at Stamford Bridge, all during his two spells as Chelsea manager – however, as an away venue he is yet to win there in three attempts (D1 L2), only managing more often at St James’ Park (7) without winning away from home.
- Chelsea boss Frank Lampard – who made 140 Premier League appearances under José Mourinho – beat him in their first league managerial meeting back in December 2019. Only one manager has ever won his first two league games against Mourinho – Boavista’s Jaime Pacheco in September 2001.
- Only Arsène Wenger (106) and Harry Redknapp (39) have won more Premier League London derbies as managers than Tottenham’s José Mourinho (37). Mourinho has the best win ratio of any manager to have managed in 20 or more (37 wins in 56 games, 66%).
- Son Heung-min has scored four goals in his last three Premier League games for Tottenham, more than he had in his previous 15 in the competition. He’s netted nine Premier League goals so far this season, and could become the fourth Spurs player to reach double figures in four consecutive campaigns in the competition after Teddy Sheringham, Robbie Keane and Harry Kane.
BURNLEY V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm This is another big game for Bournemouth, but then again when you’re just outside the relegation zone every game becomes big! Their problem has been their away form – they’ve lost seven of their last eight away Premier League games. They surprised everyone with a shock win at Chelsea, but Chelsea have had a few shocks like that this season. Burnley are always a very solid side in front of their own fans and they should be beating this Bournemouth side with home advantage. The home side have a good record against Bournemouth too, winning five of their last seven Premier League meetings. With Bournemouth’s woeful away form, we feel that Burnley should be odds on here. They are a very appealing bet at 2.2 and a solid selection for BETDAQ Multiples this weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Burnley to beat Bournemouth at 2.2.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburbou
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have won five of their seven Premier League games against Bournemouth (L2), winning each of the last three in a row. The Clarets’ best win ratio in top-flight history against an opponent (min. 5 games) is against the Cherries (71%).
- Bournemouth’s only away league win in 13 attempts at Turf Moor against Burnley came on the final day of the 2017-18 season (D6 L6).
- Burnley are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games against an opponent for only the second time, also doing so against Hull City between 2009 and 2015.
- Four of the last five Premier League meetings between Burnley and Bournemouth have been won by the away side, with Bournemouth winning just one of those.
- Burnley have won three of their last four Premier League games, picking up 10 points in total (W3 D1 L0). The Clarets had won just two of their previous nine in the competition, losing the other seven in that run.
- Bournemouth have lost seven of their last eight away league games, winning the other against Chelsea. The Cherries had won six points from their first three away games this season (W2 L1), picking up just four points from their subsequent 10 on the road (W1 D1 L8).
- Burnley have played 108 home games in the Premier League without ever being shown a red card, the most of any side in the competition. Indeed, only Liverpool (131 between 1992-1999) have ever had a longer run of home games without having a sending off in Premier League history.
- Excluding penalties, Bournemouth have scored a league-high 13 Premier League goals from set-piece situations this season. Indeed, seven of the Cherries’ last 12 league goals have come via a set-piece.
- Matej Vydra scored the winner in Burnley’s last game against Southampton, his first league goal in 511 days. The Czech forward last scored in consecutive league games in February 2018, with Derby in the Championship.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson is looking to score in consecutive league games for the first time since September, having opened the scoring for the Cherries in their loss at Sheffield United last time out.
CRYSTAL PALACE V NEWCASTLE
3pm These two are just outside the bubble in the fight to stay up, but make no mistake, a couple of losses would put them right in the danger zone. Newcastle may be in 13th position, but they are only seven points ahead of 19th and given how competitive it is down there; it only takes a poor run for everyone to overtake you. That makes this game big for both sides, because the loser is under pressure and the winner has a good safety cushion. Both sides come into this game after shipping plenty of goals in the Premier League ‘Winter Break’ – Palace conceded three against Everton while Newcastle suffered an embarrassing 4-0 loss to Arsenal. It’s been a while since Arsenal did that to a side too. Palace have a big problem at the moment – they’ve yet to score twice in a Premier League game this season, however they have also conceded in their last ten games. On balance, we have to lay Palace at 2.02 as that just looks too short in what should be a close game.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Crystal Palace at 2.02.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrynew
MATCH STATS
- Crystal Palace have registered just three wins in 17 Premier League games against Newcastle United (D5 L9), failing to score in nine of those games.
- Since winning five consecutive away league games against Crystal Palace between 1994 and 2013, Newcastle have won none of their last four visits (D3 L1).
- Since Crystal Palace’s fifth goal in their 5-1 win over Newcastle in November 2015, none of the last 92 shots in open play in Premier League meetings between the teams has been scored – all six goals in games since then have come via set pieces.
- Newcastle have won two away Premier League games in London this season, beating Spurs and West Ham – they last won three in a season back in 2013-14, with their wins that season coming against Spurs, West Ham and Crystal Palace.
- Crystal Palace are the only side who haven’t scored more than twice in a Premier League match this season. There have been seven occasions of a side going all season without scoring more than twice in a game in the competition, with all of those sides being relegated.
- Crystal Palace are without a clean sheet in 10 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition. The Eagles are also on the current longest run without a win in the competition, failing to secure victory in their last seven (D4 L3).
- Newcastle have conceded more away goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (28). However, Crystal Palace have scored the fewest home goals in the competition so far (10).
- Newcastle are without a goal in their last two Premier League games, last going three without netting in January 2016. The Magpies also conceded more goals in their last game (0-4 vs Arsenal) than they had in their previous four Premier League games combined (3).
- Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke netted his first goal in 18 Premier League appearances last time out against Everton – the Belgian hasn’t scored in consecutive league games since April 2017.
- Despite playing just 15 of Newcastle’s 26 Premier League games this season, Jonjo Shelvey has scored more goals (5) and created more chances (27) than any other player at the club this season.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V BRIGHTON
3pm Brighton will fancy their chances of winning this game, but it’s fair to say that Sheffield United have been just as good as Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United this season so we don’t expect an away win. The home side are just two points away from the top four and a draw between Chelsea and Spurs along with a win here would put them into the Top Four. A remarkable achievement. Brighton aren’t far away from doing what they did last season, starting well and finishing it off poorly. Because of their decent start and picking up some points along the way they have a little cushion on the sides towards the bottom. However there’s only three points between them in 15th and Watford in 19th so two losses could see them in hot water if other results went against them. Given the football Sheffield United have been playing, we can’t see past a home win here and we feel Sheffield United should be odds on. 2.02 looks the best value bet of the day.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Sheffield United to beat Brighton at 2.02.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshebri
MATCH STATS
- This will be first time Sheffield United will host Brighton for a top-flight match – they last met at Bramall Lane back in January 2006 in a Championship match, with the Blades winning 3-1.
- Brighton have won one of their last nine league games against Sheffield United (D2 L6), a 2-1 victory at Bramall Lane in January 2005 thanks to a 90th minute winner from Leon Knight.
- Brighton are yet to win an away Premier League game against a newly promoted side in six attempts (D2 L4) and are one of only three teams to never win such a match, along with Cardiff (four games) and Swindon (two).
- Sheffield United’s last three league defeats have come against the current top two (2 vs Man City, 1 vs Liverpool). Against sides starting the day in the bottom half, the Blades are unbeaten in seven (W6 D1) since a home loss against Newcastle in December.
- Only Aston Villa (8) and Norwich (6) have won fewer away points than Brighton (9) in the Premier League this season. Meanwhile, Brighton have picked up just two points from 39 available away from home against sides starting the day in the top six (W0 D2 L11).
- Only Wolves (18) have won more points from losing positions in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (13). Meanwhile, Brighton have lost 14 points from winning positions so far this term, more than they had in either of their previous campaigns in the competition (13 in both 2017-18 and 2018-19).
- Brighton have benefitted from a league-high total (4) and share (13%) of own goals in the Premier League this season. The last side to benefit from more were Manchester City in 2016-17 (5), while the only side to benefit from a higher share were Swansea in 2013-14 (15% – 8/54).
- Sheffield United’s Premier League games this season have seen fewer goals scored than any other side’s (52 – F28 A24). Indeed, only Liverpool (15) have shipped fewer goals than the Blades this term (24).
- Sheffield United have made just 30 changes to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side in the competition. The Blades are also the only side to have started all of their Premier League games with the same formation this term (3-5-2).
- Despite being Brighton’s top Premier League scorer this season with seven goals, Neal Maupay hasn’t scored for the Seagulls since December, playing 631 minutes and attempting 21 shots in the competition since then.
SOUTHAMPTON V ASTON VILLA
3pm Yet another game that will have a big impact at the bottom of the table. Aston Villa start the weekend in 17th position, just one point away from the bottom three and they will fancy their chances of picking up points here. Has the stream ran out of Southampton’s run? They are without a win in four games now; although in fairness one of those was Liverpool and the other two were Spurs. It was a big surprise to see them lose at home to Burnley though, especially given they had been so impressive before playing the bigger sides. Villa have been battling hard in recent weeks and one must wonder will the League Cup Final take an edge off them in the Premier League. They simply can’t afford for that to happen though and we can see them continuing to battle hard. We expect a close game here and feel that Southampton are too short at 1.66. From a value point of view, we’re happy to lay the home side.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Southampton at 1.66.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouast
MATCH STATS
- Southampton have won their last two Premier League games against Aston Villa, last winning three in a row in November 2000.
- Aston Villa are winless in seven matches against Southampton in all competitions (D3 L4) since winning 3-2 at St. Mary’s Stadium back in December 2013.
- Southampton have won fewer points at home than any other Premier League side this season (11). It’s their lowest points tally after 13 top-flight home games since 1991-92 (10).
- Southampton have conceded 30 goals in their 13 home league games this season, the most by a top-flight side after as many games since Ipswich in 1962-63 (31).
- Excluding own goals, Aston Villa’s last two strikes in the Premier League have been headers (Samatta vs Bournemouth, Engels vs Spurs) – none of the previous 31 goals scored by their players this season were headed.
- No side has kept fewer Premier League clean sheets than Aston Villa this season (4), while the Villans remain the only side yet to record a shutout away from home in the competition this season.
- Southampton striker Shane Long has been directly involved in 10 goals in his last seven Premier League starts against Aston Villa (6 goals, 4 assists), scoring twice and assisting twice in his only previous start against them at St. Mary’s in May 2015.
- Aston Villa manager Dean Smith last faced Southampton at St. Mary’s on the final day of the 2010-11 League One season, when he was Walsall manager, losing 1-3 in what was Southampton’s final game in the third tier.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has netted 15 Premier League goals this season; only Matt Le Tissier (25 in 1993-94 and 19 in 1994-95) and James Beattie (23 in 2002-03) have ever scored more in a single campaign in the competition for Saints.
- Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has created 68 chances for his teammates in the Premier League this season, more than any other English player in the competition.
LEICESTER V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm This is a brilliant fixture to finish the day! Third play host to second and although the Premier League title might be gone, Leicester would take huge pride if they could finish above Manchester City in the Premier League table. Leicester are obviously having a brilliant season, however their confidence was knocked when they were easily beaten by Liverpool and City over the Christmas period. Despite that, a top four finish is still an excellent result for Leicester and they look set to complete that.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Leicester 4.8, Manchester City 1.76 and the draw is 4.3. Manchester City haven’t been at their best this season – there’s no doubt about that looking at the Premier League table and the 1.76 on them feels a little short here. The title race is over, and now City have a massive game coming up in the Champions League against Real Madrid. This fixture will be far more important for Leicester and with home advantage we feel that they can get a result here. Leicester have a good recent record hosting City and as we have said, City haven’t been at their brilliant best this season. The 1.76 is just too short.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Manchester City at 1.76.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleimci
MATCH STATS
- Leicester City have lost five of their last six Premier League matches against Manchester City (W1), winning the other in this exact fixture last season under Claude Puel.
- Man City have lost two of their last three away Premier League games against Leicester (W1) having lost none of their previous five away games there in the Premier League (W3 D2).
- Leicester have drawn back-to-back Premier League games, having drawn just one of their previous 22 in the competition (W15 L6).
- In Brendan Rodgers’ first 14 home league games in charge of Leicester, the Foxes conceded just seven goals and never more than once in a match. In their last four at the King Power Stadium, they’ve shipped nine goals, and more than once on three occasions.
- Manchester City have lost four of their 13 away Premier League games this season (W8 D1), as many as they had on the road in their previous two campaigns combined (W30 D4 L4). The Citizens haven’t failed to score in consecutive away league games since January 2017.
- Leicester’s Brendan Rodgers has never beaten Man City manager Pep Guardiola in any of his previous four meetings (D2 L2) – he’s only faced José Mourinho more often without winning in his managerial career (six games).
- This is Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers’ 300th top-flight match as a manager (197 Premier League, 103 Scottish Premiership) – Rodgers has never lost a home Premier League game against Manchester City (W3 D1).
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against Man City (5 goals, 1 assist). Vardy has scored more top-flight goals (5) against teams managed by Pep Guardiola than any other player across the Spaniard’s spells at Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Man City.
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy hasn’t scored in any of his last six Premier League games – he’d only failed to score in six of his first 18 appearances in the competition this season.
- Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored in all three of his Premier League starts against Leicester, with two of these strikes ending up being the winning goal of the game.
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