MASSIVE BETDAQ VALUE FOR DAY 3 AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: Punter-friendly BETDAQ is the place to be for Cheltenham. Bookmakers overrounds were hiked to 140% on Day 2 in the big handicap hurdle and they ‘got out’ on the last two races with 134 and 135%. At 9 a.m. BETDAQ exchange offers for this afternoon totalled, race by race, 102, 102, 101, 102, 103, 107 and 105%. Headlines:
🔹 FAUGHEEN CAN RAISE THE ROOF
🔹 BIG WIN BLOWING IN THE WIND
🔹 FRODON FOR SIXTH COURSE HIT
🔹 20.0 CITY ISLAND LOOKS VALUE
🔹 BIG-GAMBLE BETTS FORM BEST
🔹 FLORESSA SLICK OVER HURDLES
🔹 LE BREUIL AUTOMATIC CHOICE
DAQMAN NH ACCOUNTS UPDATE
📈 Daqman 37, Pricewise 18 (+435.15 to -51.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 45% (+353.40 from 19-45) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps 2020: 33% (+31.00 from 1-3) (2019: 47% +249 from 8-17)
📈 All Daily Naps 45% (+120.28 from 53-117) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 51% (+11.44 from 15-29) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 44% (+28.54 from 7-16) 20pt stakes at SP
FAUGHEEN CAN RAISE THE ROOF
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham (Marsh Novices’ Chase)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
KEY RACES: Faugheen
RATINGS: 158 Faugheen, 157 Samcro, 155 Itchy Feet.
TRAINER: Faugheen,
FORM: Faugheen (pictured) is twice the age of many winners of this (seven the oldest in 10 years) and still a novice chaser at 12, but this is a new life for the 13 times hurdles winner.
Now 3-3 over fences, just 2lb behind his hurdles mark, and with a 10-lengths Boxing Day defeat of Samcro as one of his scalps. The beneficial effect of a wind op on Samcro will be tested to the full up the final climb (still wears a tongue-tie).
Supreme Novices third Itchy Feet (Mister Fisher behind) has impressed in small-field chases. Not yet fluent throughout and can hang to the right.
Even if Colin Tizzard were in better form, Reserve Tank has not improved a single pound since last Spring. He’s stuck on a rating of 151.
The one I marked down in my horses to follow, a step away from the Fortune Cookies list, is Annie Mc, who is also 3-3 but in races just for mares and, off only 145, may find this coming too soon. She has the long-term target of the new mares’ race in 2021.
BETDAQ VALUE: Two ways to bet for value are when the market won’t accept the form (win Faugheen 5.6) or hasn’t caught up with an improver (5.7 Itchy Feet and 15.0 Annie Mc). As ever at this festival, you takes your choice between the exposed form and the hidden improver. I’ll bet Faugheen raises the roof!
BIG WIN BLOWING IN THE WIND
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Pertemps Hurdle Final)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
KEY RACES: A Great View, Relegate.
TRAINER: Sire Du Berlais, The Storyteller,
FORM: A Great View, sixth in the race a year ago, has to carry 7lb more this time, 5lb higher than his Irish form, after his third in the Punchestown trial that is such a good guide to this.
As well as A Great View, J P McManus (five winners already this week) has Unowhatimeanharry, Sire Du Berlais (the 2019 winner of this Final, with 7lb more now) and Dream Berry, who was put away for this after qualifying at Sandown in December.
The 2018 Champion Bumper winner (for Willie Mullins), Relegate, who was close up to A Great View, fourth, in the Punchestown qualifier – her first race for a year – should be right on song now on only her second start for Colm Murphy. Paul Townend rides.
The winner of that Punchestown heat, receiving 9lb from Relegate, had earlier tried to make all at Clonmel but was run out of it by The Storyteller, successfully giving her 7lb.
Storyteller’s rider, Davy Russell, tries to make it four Pertemps Final wins in five years, but looks a couple of pounds the wrong side of the weights readjustment.
Welsh Saint was done no favours by the flop of his (Cheltenham) January conqueror, Protektorat yesterday. But Nicky Henderson has had two winners a day at the meeting.
Third Wind was handled early in his career by Henrietta Knight, and careful placing by Hughie Morrison brought him to peak to win him the Novices Final at Sandown last March. He was back to form at Wincanton in December.
The handicapper may now have hold of five-in-a-row Jatiluwih, comfortable 2m 5f winner here at Cheltenham in November, but he’s unexposed at this new trip of 3m.
Stoney Mountain came flying through from the back to bag a stayer’s hurdle at Haydock in the autumn. The Cheltenham hill and heavier ground will make that very hard to do.
But Henry Daly looks very keen on his chances, securing Sam Twiston-Davies for Stoney and putting Richard Johnson up on Rapper, whose narrow CD defeat by Skandiburg on the first day of the year came when his claiming rider dropping his reins on the run-in.
BETDAQ VALUE: Relegate (9.0), Third Wind (17.0) and Dream Berry (21.0).
FRODON FOR SIXTH COURSE HIT
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
RATINGS: 170 Min, 168 Frodon, 166 A Plus Tard
TRAINER: Min, Duc Des Genievres
FORM: Henry De Bromhead, who won a famous victory with Honeysuckle on Tuesday, landed a gamble in this race in 2018 with Balko Des Flos. He has the money horse again here in A Plus Tard but only one six-year-old has ever won the Ryanair.
Min has never made it at Cheltenham but two of his festival defeats were trying to match strides with Altior in his prime.
BETDAQ VALUE: I’ll take Frodon (7.0 offers), the course specialist: 11002111 since his chasing debut here, and all his success on the sharper New course of today’s race, which he battled back to win last year after being headed two out.
20.0 CITY ISLAND PLACE VALUE
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Stayers Hurdle)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
RATINGS: 169 Paisley Park; 157 Bacardys, Apple’s Jade; 156 Penhill, Ronald Pump, Summerville Boy
TRAINER: Bacardys, Penhill
FORM: I read in the Press that the last two winners, Paisley Park and Penhill, clash today though that is an inappropriate word in the sense that Penhill won off a 15lb lower mark than Paisley Park, who is rated 13lb better for today’s contest.
He has continued a winning sequence, whereas Penhill hasn’t scored since. They can hardly clash – not even nudge – if they’re a dozen lengths apart!
Bacardys has been beaten in the race twice, and Apple’s Jade has looked jaded for some time; only hope is that the blinkers revive him.
City Island, who beat Champ in the Ballymore a year ago, descends from hurdles royalty, his dam a half-sister to Morley Street and Granville Again.
Champ was then runner-up at Aintree to Emitom who, before success at Haydock recently, jumped poorly on his return in the Relkeel Hurdle here on New Year’s Day behind Summerville Boy, who led much of the way in this afternoon’s race last year until collared at the last by Paisley Park
BETDAQ VALUE: The odds-on shots win and then they lose. This one, Paisley Park, is unlikely to, but there’s a bit of value in 20.0 offer, City Island, for a place, back to hurdling from a failed fencing career and the main hope of Ireland.
BIG-GAMBLE BETTS FORM BEST
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Stable Plate)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
FORM: Avoid those yards struggling at this festival: Philip Hobbs, Alan King and Colin Tizzard have been disappointing
The novices winner here on Tuesday, Imperial Aura, had been beaten over today’s CD on this New course by Simply The Betts, and the Harry Whittington fan club was betting Betts last night.
They see the form like this. Their stable runner, Saint Calvados, gave 15lb to Oldgrangewood over the CD on the first day of the year and lost by only a nose. Spiritofthegames, runner-up to Siruh Du Lac in this race last year, is 9lb better off. Narrowly beaten over the CD again twice recently, but had been tailed off behind Oldgrangewood.
VERDICT: Is Simply The Betts a good thing? You have to take only 4.7 that they are right.
FLORESSA SLICK OVER HURDLES
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Mares’ Novices Hurdle)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
FORTUNE COOKIES: Floressa
RATINGS: 143 Minella Melody, 141 Concertista, 141 Floressa
TRAINER: Colreevy, Concertista, Dolcita, Yukon Lil.
FORM AND BETDAQ VALUE: All winners of this have been five-year-olds. Nicky Henderson’s yard houses the champion hurdler. And slick hurdler Floressa, though a Fortune Cookie, is 12.0 in the BETDAQ orange. Three reasons for sticking with her.
That’s an automatic 20 points win, for which the saver must surely be in-form Henry De Bromhead’s Minella Melody, who disposed of her Willie Mullins rivals today, Colreevy (not fluent) and Dolcita (mistakes), when they were 1-2-3 at Fairyhouse in January.
LE BREUIL AUTOMATIC CHOICE
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Kim Muir)
REPRISE: See How They Won (Archive: February 25, 26, 27, 28). Stats (Archive: March 3, 4, 5, 6)
TRAINER: Champagne Platinum
FORM: We saw an absolute peach of a ride by Jamie Codd on Ravenhill on in the NH Chase on Tuesday, a race he won last year with his Kim Muir partner today, Le Breuil. Jamie has won this race four times since 2009, and the partnership was 7.1 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 6.5pts win FAUGHEEN
2.10 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bets, 10 place)
BET 6.25pts win RELEGATE
BET 3pts win THIRD WIND
BET 2.5pts win and place DREAM BERRY
2.50 Cheltenham (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 8.25pts win FRODON
3.30 Cheltenham (supernap, place 10)
BET 20pts win PAISLEY PARK
BET 1pt win and 3pts place CITY ISLAND
4.10 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 8pts win SIMPLY THE BETTS
4.50 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 6.25pts win MINELLA MELODY
5.30 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 5pts win LE BREUIL
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