IRISH NATIONAL ‘WINNER’ CAN CAPTURE AINTREE 2021 AT 50-1: Daqman tipped the 18-1 Virtual Grand National winner for value. Today’s magnificent Irish Grand National is also lost – or, hopefully, just postponed – and Daqman today completes his view of the race (form in yesterday’s column). His ‘winner’ is a tip in itself for next year’s Liverpool Grand National at 50.0 ante-post in the BETDAQ Sportsbook.
THE STORY SO FAR AS DAQMAN REVEALS HIS BETTING SECRETS: Have you been following Daqman’s Secrets Of Winner-Finding? There have been 11 sections so far, with more to come this week. Today we summarise each part, and recommend you start an easy-reference list of do’s and don’ts. Do you recognise some of the horses and trainers in The Story So Far?
50.0 SAYS HE JUMPS LIKE A NATIVE
Irish Grand National: Today would have been the 150th anniversary of the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse, an historic race graced by the greats – Arkle, Flyingbolt, Brown Lad and Desert Orchid – and which has continued in importance through the years.
In 1998 came the magnificent one-two of Bobbyjo and Papillon, who would go on to win the Liverpool Grand National in 1999 and 2000.
The Fairyhouse 2005 winner, Numbersixvalverde, would himself be involved in a sensational one-two, and no lesser gamble, at Aintree when he won the Grand National there by six lengths from the previous year’s winner, Hedgehunter.
In yesterday’s column, Daqman made out a case for an autumn trio of marathon races, with the Irish Grand National pivotal for Ireland, the Ladbrokes Trophy for England and then all with a chance of jumping the big National fences with the trio completed by the Becher Chase.
He was laying claim for a huge list of young chasers of staying ability and potential: Agusta Gold, Any Second Now, Battleoverdoyen, Cap York, Delta Work, Discorama, Early Doors, Fitzhenry, Galvin, Jerrysback, Kashari, Kimberlite Candy, Le Breuil, Milan Native, Real Steel, Roaring Bull, Salsaretta, Talkischeap, Tout Est Permis, Voix Du Reve.
You can add to those aged seven and eight the six-year-old Easysland plus some who have found their jumping ability late in life, like the 10-year-olds Ravenhill and Potters Corner, ‘winner’ of the Virtual Aintree Grand National, which replaced the real thing on ITV.
There was no virtual Irish Grand National but Daqman yesterday laid out form of the front-
runners in the betting before it, too, was abandoned.
RESULT: 1 Milan Native, 2 Ravenhill, 3 Agusta Gold.
Milan Native was today 50.0 in the BETDAQ Sportsbook market for the 2021 Grand National, with many in his list of youngsters making up a very open market.
BETTING SECRETS: STORY SO FAR
THE HORSE THAT NEARLY WON: Part 1 (Daqman Archive March 24): Some of your best friends are losers. I’m talking about horses we call ‘bridesmaids’; or ‘nearly horses’ and hyped animals that never match the headlines.
All are useful as lays or odds builders for your own bets; none will be wasted by the discerning punter. Not all are lays; far from it.
FORM IS SIMPLY WHAT YOU BEAT: Part 2 (March 25): What horses were behind your horse the last day? Don’t judge him by the one(s) in front. How did those behind perform BEFORE and AFTER he was in the frame.
When I opposed a favourite called Even So (3rd 6-5 on), I said: ‘Impressive maiden winner at Gowran Park, though the 12 behind that day in September have only ONE win of their own to share among them!’
DAQMAN LAMBASTS THE HYPE: Part 3 (March 26): Hype is the mug punter’s deadly enemy and your best friend. The hyped horse can help you twice in one race as one to lay and one to create a market which, with him taken out, has a low overround or an underround with the percentages in your favour, so that any and all other bets are value.
Champions do not litter their form with mistakes and swerves and switches, and need luck in running and very special jockeyship if they are to overcome that word ‘lazy.’ I say now that he will not win the 2021 Gold Cup.
THE TRUTH ABOUT TRAINERS: Part 4 (March 27): Racing is also about the class of trainer. I don’t mean whether he is Cardew Knox-Snooty who has owners with millions or Fred Floggem who has owners with donkeys.
No, it’s what class of animal he handles that is important to you, and – Snooty or Floggem – how skilled he is at nurturing them, assessing them, training them, placing them, prepping and trialling them, and getting them fit for anything from a Derby to a seller.
YOU NEED TO KNOW THE STABLES: Part 4 cont (March 29): When you see 0001 and you know who trained the winner, don’t think crafty so-and-so, think ‘he’s earned the winter corn and can now relax and concentrate on the horses for the rest of the season.’
Women trainers were so looked down on in the early days that their horses were starting at prices bigger than they should be.
A TRAINER’S STOCK IN TRADE: Part 4 cont (April 6): Remarkable how many of his horses win from the front, and surprising how some of them improve, despite seemingly exposed by this style of running.
Some target their home track like this one who has York as his stamping ground. Horses can’t win all the time, so watch for him placing one at York when its handicap mark is right.
JOCKEYS – THE ‘A’ TEAM: Part 5 (April 7): Check your jockey charts against mine when I create a new table for the 2020 season and publish it as play resumes.
TRAINER AND JOCKEY FALLACIES: Part 4 and 5 EXTRA (April 8): Remember my warning about winners last time out. Generally, horses don’t stay at peak: they are ‘let down’ and ‘brought back’.
The horse is a 5f sprinter, yet he runs in three consecutive 6f races. He drops a couple of pounds, then returns to 5f. That’s the sort of thing that gets the trainer a good win and you a good price!
SEE HOW THEY WON: IT’S A DAQMAN CLASSIC: April 9: Turnkey two-year-old tests feature on the CV of these giants of the turf in recent years. And below them I match the 2019 results of the same star races to colts and fillies in the 2020 Guineas markets.
SEE HOW THEY WON: EPSOM DERBY: April 10: Ratings of the left of the last 10 Epsom winners are followed by their form and the number of races they ran before the Derby. The date is the day of their debut as a two-year-old.
Go back further to Aidan O’Brien’s first two winners and you find that Galileo didn’t appear until 28 October as a two-year-old but ran three times (three wins) before the Derby victory.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
