SECRETS OF WINNER FINDING: HEARTBREAK LOSERS OF THE ARC: Looking for horses to oppose or lay? Daqman finds a race in which the local champion NEVER wins, despite the heartbreak of many millions of euros pumped into the bloodstock and into training. The race is the Arc, and the champion chumps are French Derby winners who have finished 000033003 in nine attempts in the last 12 seasons. It’s all part of the Lays section of Daqman’s Secrets Of Winner Finding.
Tomorrow: when even Aidan O’Brien is vulnerable
DERBY WINNER YOU CAN LAY ALL DAY
Don’t let the French Derby trip you up. Use it as a good guide to a regular winning lay in the Arc. It was classed Group 1 from 1971 and produced no fewer than nine Arc winners. But none since 2003.
You see, in 2005, the French shot themselves in the foot, tripped themselves up, by reducing the distance from 1m 4f to little more than 1m 2f.
Don’t be fooled and think it is 12 furlongs, and don’t be fooled into the routine Press hype that this is the year the French Derby winner will stay the Arc trip. It’s now intrinsic that their stock is stamina suspect.
It’s a ready-made reason to oppose the Chantilly darling at Longchamp in the autumn. Remember, we prefer to have two or more reasons to lay or strike its value from the market and bet against it, and you don’t have to look far for it.
The Arc is usually on soft ground in the autumn, the Prix Du Jockey Club almost always on better going in the summer.
Combine the two and you can get a colt with star form over 1m 2f on summer ground trying to win an international event over 1m 4f on the soft.
French Derby winners since 2005: Sottsass, Study of Man, Brametot, Almanzor, New Bay, The Grey Gatsby, Intello, Saonois, Reliable Man, Lope De Vega, Le Havre, Vision d’Etat, Lawman, Danis, Shamardal.
The Arc heroes who crushed them: Here are winners of the Arc in those years, with how each French Derby winner ran if engaged in the race. Their finishing positions were: 000033003.
2019 Waldgeist had the French Derby winner on good ground, Sottsass (6.6-1) beaten three and a half lengths in third on very soft. ‘Sottsass chased leaders two out. Soon ridden’.
2018 Enable had French Derby winner Study of Man only ninth at Longchamp. Very similar final quarter-mile: ‘some headway from under two furlongs out, weakened steadily final furling.’
2017 Enable French Derby winner, Brametot, no impression well over 1.5f out, fifth.
2015 Golden Horn French Derby winner New Bay (third) was ridden to challenge two out; stayed on well without matching the winner.’
2013 Treve French Derby winner Intello (third) ‘went third a furlong out, chased winner, no impression.’
2012 Solemia French Derby winner on good to soft, Saonois ran in the Arc on heavy ground and tailed off.
2011 Danedream French Derby winner on the soft, Reliable Man, was 15th of 16 to Danedream in the Arc on good.
2010 Workforce The Chantilly hero Lope De Vega was 11th of 19, some 11 lengths behind Workforce at Longchamp.
Lope De Vega became a leading stallion but note that his progeny has had 58 winners from 10-11 furlongs but only around half of that (30) at 12-13 furlongs.
2008 Zarkava French Derby winner Vision D’Etat was fifth, ‘stayed on same pace.’
In 2016 Almanzor was wisely kept to 1m 2f and completed a five-timer, when avoiding the Arc and taking the Champion Stakes at Ascot.
In 2014, the Chantilly hero, The Grey Gatsby, swerved the Arc in favour of the Irish Champion Stakes (1m 2f, won). The 2007 winner, Lawman, and the 2005 winner, Shamardal, both returned to 1m.
Darsi (2006) was unplaced in the Irish Derby. Le Havre (2009) didn’t race again after Chantilly.
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