BUNDESLIGA SUNDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra got off to a flying start last weekend. Now for Sunday’s Bundesliga games with recommended BETDAQ bets including KOLN V FORTUNA DUSSELDORF at 5pm.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SCHALKE V FC AUGSBURG
12.30pm We kick off Sunday with two teams who need a confident boost. Schalke were destroyed by Dortmund score line wise last weekend, although xG says they were very unlucky to concede four goals. Looking at the stats, Schalke just haven’t been creating chances – an xG of less an 1 per game recently does not make you want to back them. While their recent stats are bad, they actually sit third last in the Bundesliga over the season for creating chances. That’s a team who is very “beatable” but can Augsburg do it?
The league table doesn’t fairly reflect Augsburg’s position; however they have to pick up point to get away from a relegation playoff scenario towards the end of the season. The problem has been at the back for Augsburg, but when you consider Schalke’s problem creating chances perhaps this is a game they can win. I don’t think this will be a good game to watch with two bad teams. Schalke shouldn’t be so high in the table and they shouldn’t be 2.13 to win here either. I’m happy to lay them for a small bet. Augsburg don’t win many games, but they can get a result here.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay Schalke at 2.13 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSchAug
MAINZ V RB LEIPZIG
2.30pm Expect fireworks at both ends here. Goals, goals, goals! It’ll probably finish 0-0 now I’ve opened with that! Mainz sit down in 15th position in the Bundesliga, but on xG they would be a midtable side and they should avoid relegation if they can continue their performances. RB Leipzig are having a solid season sitting in fourth and they have an xG of over 2 goals away from home. Mainz have an xG of very close 3 in games at home (that’s both scored and conceded) while that’s over 3 for RB Leipzig when they are away.
It’s fair to say that while I expect goals here, it’s already priced in. Over 2.5 goals is 1.44 which is hard to complain about but doesn’t offer much value. I would have it shorter than that, but not so much that I’d want to back 1.44. I’m surprised Both Teams To Score is 1.6. Both sides love attacking and I expect an open game. BTTS is worth a bet at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ Sportsbook.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMaiLei
KOLN V FORTUNA DUSSELDORF
5pm Watching Koln last weekend was very enjoyable, and I expect them to put in a similar performance here. They had an xG of nearly 3 last weekend, and gave up an xG of close to 2.5 – that’s a good game to watch! This is why I love looking at xG – Koln have actually won their last seven on xG but the score line hasn’t reflected that. It’s fair to say that they have been one of the best performing sides in the Bundesliga – albeit we are thrown by the effect of the break in between.
I would be lumping on goals here if it wasn’t for Fortuna Dusseldorf. They created very little last weekend, and they’ve only scored 27 times in 26 games. That worst record in the league. It’s not a surprise where they are in the table, and with Fortuna Dusseldorf creating very little away from home I’m confident on the home win here. Koln have been excellent and the 1.83 on them to win is massive. They’ve been outperforming their league position and can take advantage of a poor Dusseldorf side, 1.83 is worth a max bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Koln to beat Fortuna Dusseldorf at 1.83 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQKolDus
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