IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS BULL’S-EYE AND DOUBLE-VALUE NEWBURY NAP: It’s Guineas weekend in Ireland and Daqman straightaway goes for bull’s-eye targets at the Curragh. He also boosts his double-value bet to nap status at Newbury. Read his horse-by-horse analysis of the Aidan O’Brien assault on Irish 2,000 Guineas favourite, Siskin. His verdicts are in the headlines:
🔹 CITY COULD SCORE THE WINNER
🔹 IT’S ‘MIST’ DEFYING BEAR FORCE
🔹 A GROUP HORSE IN A HANDICAP?
CITY COULD SCORE THE WINNER
6.40 The Curragh (Irish 2,000 Guineas) The 11 times winning trainer Aidan O’Brien has six of the 11 runners in the first Irish Classic tonight but..
🔸 He hasn’t got the top rating
🔸 He hasn’t got the favourite
🔸 He hasn’t got the only Group 1 winner
🏇 Siskin: That hat-trick of dubious honours (top-rated, favourite and Group 1 winner) falls to the unbeaten Siskin, who consecutively won the Marble Hill, Railway Stakes and Phoenix Stakes as a two-year-old with – in each case – O’Brien contenders second and third. Monarch of Egypt was twice second, Fort Myers once third.
O’Brien puts up a six hit against Siskin, a six-furlongs-only winner, who had to be withdrawn from the Middle Park when he boiled over in the stalls.
Siskin’s trainer, Ger Lyons, is in form (3-7), but O’Brien (8-46) will test for stamina and temperament with his six running different races, from the front, from just off the pace, from behind. How can one horse resist these different tactics:
🏇 Armory Completed hat-trick in the Curragh Futurity, but behind Pinatubo, Victor Ludorum and Alson in consecutive Group 1s. Bounces off the top of the ground so the very soft of the Lagardere and the Longchamp Criterium were against him.
🏇 Fort Myers Third to Siskin in the Railway Stakes and to Lope Y Fernandez in the Round Tower. Seems unlikely to emerge from a CV of five defeats and one win.
🏇 Lope Y Fernandez Beaten by Pinatubo in the Chesham and the Vintage Stakes; won when dropped back to Group 3. A big pacy colt, I thought him more suited to the Jersey Stakes but, seemingly, Seamie Heffernan’s pick.
🏇 Monarch of Egypt Two-and-a-half lengths runner-up to Siskin in the Railway Stakes, closed him down to three-parts of a length in the Phoenix (a head in front of Royal Lytham).
Speedy but plenty of stamina on both sides of his pedigree, though racereaders thought he saved something for himself last year.
🏇 Royal Lytham From the first crop of Gleneagles, still green in the Coventry (seventh) and, after winning the July Stakes, got within a length of Siskin in the Phoenix, though saddle slipped early, and he was hampered and switched late on.
Royal Lytham missed the autumn juvenile races after a setback and so hasn’t raced beyond 6f; blinkered first time.
🏇 Vatican City Fifth as a maiden behind Newmarket Guineas seventh, Kinross; then won on Polytrack at Dundalk. Brother to Guineas winners Gleneagles and Marvellous but short on experience.
VERDICT: I asked ‘how can one horse, Siskin, resist the tactics of the O’Brien six?’ I should add: ‘how can the punter pick the one of the six who gets the tactics right?’
Despite the money for Lope Y Fernandez, the apparent Seamie Heffernan preference, I am hooked on the pedigree of Vatican City and the news that he has hit form at home at the right time.
Monarch of Egypt has been beaten too many times and, though Royal Lytham is the form horse on his unlucky run in the Phoenix, I can’t accept a Classic winner in blinkers. Armory will love the ground and has bags of experience.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: 1️⃣ Vatican City (BETDAQ 8.8), 2️⃣ Armory (5.5), 3️⃣ Siskin (3.7), 4️⃣ Lope Y Fernandez (6.2), 5️⃣ Royal Lytham (11.0), 6️⃣ Monarch of Egypt (23.0), 7️⃣ Sinawann (16.0).
IT’S ‘MIST’ DEFYING BEAR FORCE
⭕ 5.25 Newbury When War Glory won the Chelmsford City Cup last August, the favourite, Blue Mist (only sixth), had finished close up in two Ascot handicaps, the Victoria Cup and then the International Stakes.
Along with Breath Of Air (gelded and could improve) and Charles Molson, both were due to run in the Buckingham Palace Handicap on Tuesday, so we suppose that today is their Ascot instead.
Newbury CD winner Bear Force One had a run back eight days ago, and has been the gamble of the race: 10-1 to 4-1 with bookmakers overnight.
James Doyle booked, and BETDAQ offers gobbled up down to 3.85, with some correction this morning, easing to permit 4.6 and 4.9 offers as I write.
The snag with War Glory is that he’s just 1-26 on turf, and Blue Mist could get his revenge; he’s done well in the grade, and looks narrowly the value now at 3.55 over Bear Force One.
⭕ 5.55 Newbury Sleeping Lion, a CD winner in 2018, didn’t do well again until, stepped up in trip, he ran second in the Brown Jack Stakes and was winner of the Mallard at Doncaster in September.
All three of these races were run on firm ground and there’s rain about, so leave your decision on him until nearer the race. Nette Rousse has scored twice but at a lower level and is blinkered first time.
The quirky Laffy won a class-3 handicap at Nottingham on heavy last August when visored first time, and the blinds are kept on, even though Laffy has been gelded since.
Away He Goes is unexposed, but they reckon he needs cheekpieces today if he is to complete the hat-trick.
Alan King landed a Sunday-Monday treble, but Elgin, returning here after 111 days following two wind ops, is best known as a hurdler, and this could be a warm-up for the restart of Jumps racing in a couple of weeks time.
It’s a very open race and I’ve ended up with my pound on Rajinsky at around 7.0. Progressive; ni e draw and handicap mark; from a stable in form.
⭕ 6.25 Newbury Maybe Aweedram is Alan King’s winner today. He won his first two starts last year under William Buick. Around 6.0 on BETDAQ to win 30, though I reckoned him a 3-1 shot; I kept my 10-point stake instead of reducing the bet to 6 points so now I could win 50.
Moll Davis is high in the handicap and too short at 2.89 as I write, and You’re Hired hasn’t won a race since 2016. Just The Man is a CD winner but off a mark 11lb lower and trainer Clive Cox is currently 1-17.
Breath Caught has dropped a few pounds and has his first run for Ralph Beckett. Also down the handicap is Lunar Jet but his last seven runs have been at long odds; you need to see good money for him.
A GROUP HORSE IN A HANDICAP?
⭕ 7.15 The Curragh (Irish Lincolnshire) My first Fortune Cookie of the 2020 Flat was Patrick Sarsfield, put up for the lost Irish Lincolnshire at Naas, and here’s the race rerouted to Guineas day at the Curragh more than 10 weeks later.
The good news is that the Australia gelding won his maiden here from a big field in October, leading two out and rolling home in an absolute hack canter. The bad news is that he’s not a definite runner today. He’s a reserve.
Patrick Sarsfield was favourite for the abandoned Naas Lincolnshire, with connections admitting that the race had been his target for ‘a long time’. Make that ‘a long, long time’, 10 weeks on.
It’s 80 days (29 runners) since Joseph O’Brien has had a winner on the Flat – even longer than that over Jumps – but Patrick Sarsfield was reckoned the proverbial ‘Group horse in a handicap’.
I took 6.4 this morning but recommend you keep your Daq up and, when he gets into the race, take a position quickly with a back and lay situation in mind.
In case he doesn’t get in (he needs two to come out, which is likely if it’s firm ground), we must have an alternative.
Ado McGuinness, who has the likely favourite, Current Option, hasn’t had a Flat winner for 118 days (27 losers in that time). Dermot Weld, who saddles Bashiyr, hasn’t had one in 221 days (36 runs).
Tauran Shaman (BETDAQ 6.2), from stall 9 under Shane Foley here, won a handicap at the Galway Festival, and trainer Jessica Harrington is in fine form.
Jessica also runs Njord, but he’s up a stone since the first leg of his hat-trick bid over this Curragh CD, and is drawn out wide. Her third runner, Onlyhuman is also high in the handicap now.
DAQMAN’S BETS
5.25 Newbury (win 10)
BET 4pts win BLUE MIST
5.5 Newbury (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win RAJINSKY
6.25 Newbury (3-1 pick to win 30; took 5-1 offer)
DOUBLE-VALUE NAP: 10pts win AWEEDRAM
6.40 The Curragh
(BULL’S-EYE BET: win 50, win 30)
BET 6.5pts win VATICAN CITY
BET 6.25pts win ARMORY
7.15 The Curragh
(BULL’S-EYE BET: win 50, win 30)
BET 9pts win PATRICK SARSFIELD
BET 5.75pts win TAURAN SHAMAN
Double-value bets were explained in yesterday’s Daqman column
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