2.5 BETDAQ VALUE NAP WINS WITH LOCKED-IN BONUS: Daqman’s third winning nap out of four this week came with a BETDAQ bonus. Because Kings Temptation (WON 6-5) was 2.5 in the morning of the race and Daqman thought it should be evens at best, he stuck to his usual 10-point stake to win 10. Of course, it won 15 because of the BETDAQ edge. It was his first Bonus Nap this season. The three best bets out of four this week:
WON 6-5 KINGS TEMPTATION (Thursday, from 2.5 BETDAQ)
WON 11-8 CHAMPAGNE TERRI (Tuesday)
WON 4-7 FIRST WINTER (Monday, from evens BETDAQ)
GET ON THE TREGONING BANDWAGON AT LEICESTER: It’s been a strong week for the Daqman staking plans. Just one winner a day has produced a profit on the day three times. He needs one of the first two winners tonight for cover, finding it difficult to choose between them. In the end he napped a Marcus Tregoning at Leicester, dropped in class and with the trainer showing 50-points profit on the course (49.99 actually, but in for a penny..) A form guide to tomorrow’s Irish Oaks comes first.
PEPPER TOP RATED FOR OAKS POT
7.15 The Curragh, Saturday (Irish Oaks) With the exception of Enable (of course) who was a 120 when winning this, Irish Oaks heroines have generally gone down to post rated between 107 and 110. Here are Saturday’s probables in official-ratings order:
111 Cayenne Pepper Hat-trick scorer as a juvenile, took on older fillies and mares in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh last month, running second to the Champion Stakes winner, Magical.
106 Ennistymon Gets her big chance here after top-line seconds to Frankly Darling in the Ribblesdale at Ascot and to Love in the English Oaks.
106 New York Girl Fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas was plunged into the Irish Derby back at The Curragh a fortnight later. Never really going and got detached.
106 Snow Sister to 2018 St Leger winner, Kew Gardens, she’s a course winner and a distance winner at the Curragh but her Group-3 Munster Oaks is her best performance to date.
103 Even So, Laburnum winner and second, separated by a neck, in the Naas Oaks Trial after Even So’s fifth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
101 Yaxeni Third in the Blue Wind at Leopardstown and fourth behind Snow in the Munster Oaks.
100 Passion Third to Frankly Darling and Ennistymon in the Ribblesdale, pushed into the lead four out in Love’s Epsom Oaks but weakened 15 lengths behind the winner.
DE SOUSA GIVES TREACHEROUS TIP
⭕ 5.25 Haydock Silvestre De Sousa has previously taken just one ride on Treacherous; that was when they won at Goodwood, after Treacherous had run second a grade higher over today’s CD after a break. I took 4.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
Buccaneers Vault usually makes a race of it but is eight now and has had 68 races. Mina Velour has changed stables so is hard to assess.
Tenax is a CD winner from a yard in form, and Springwood Drive won here on the soft last season. Baby Steps has a modest strike rate but not as bad as the current record of his trainer David Loughnane (1-24).
⭕ 5.35 Leicester Dandy trainer Marcus Tregoning tends to get his horses ready for a shortish burst of form (planning his winners, then his holidays?), and has been doing well recently.
He’s 23% at Leicester and good value for punters, with a pound-level-stakes profit of £50. Excellent placer of horses and Raatea (BETDAQ 2.5) could add to Tregoning’s well-gotten gains.
Was going smoothly at Newmarket when ‘not get clear run’. That was a class 2 and the winner was completing a hat-trick.
This is a big drop to class 4, where Roger Varian is hoping that cheekpieces help King Ragnar, who is up in the weights for being beaten (two placed efforts this term).
Kinsman is well related and could yet be anything but has the disadvantage of being the only horse in the race with such a long absence. Most animals are catching up on the lockdown.
TRUESHAN DESERVES HIGH RATING
⭕ 6.25 Haydock A ‘cracking’ contest, phraseology which roughly translates as: exciting bunch of animals at a decent level but hard to predict the outcome.
Sir Michael Stoute has won this Listed for the last two years. Does Alignak’s official 11lb improvement for his own back-to-back wins put him closer to, or in front of, Trueshan.
He was at least a stone behind that one last summer, albeit Alignak didn’t show his form that day, an odds-on flop.
The clincher is that Trueshan himself has improved 18lb since then, if the handicapper’s computer is working properly.
That puts him 4lb in front of El Misk, who has been acey-deucy for almost a year now, winner or second in six consecutive starts. I took 3.0 Trueshan on BETDAQ.
Ispolini’s best form is in Meydan and we haven’t seen much of him, as though he’s had his problems. Could bounce back with stable going well but would you bet on it?
⭕ 6.55 Haydock Form usually takes until Derby Day to settle down, partly because three-year-olds are finding their level, partly because the ground conditions are not stable. Add six weeks for lost time and we should be able to rely on results from now on.
Past performance of the runners may then be the backable factor and it’s often amazing how accurate the form can be.
If we ask it to work out to the nearest pound here, we have to back D’bai (BETDAQ 3.7). He ran Space Blues to a length and a quarter at Longchamp.
Happy Power ran Space Blues to a length and a half here at Haydock.
The other factors at play is that D’bai, who finished behind in that Haydock race, was having his reappearance run, and needed it. Happy Power was having his first run back, when he usually does best.
On the last day, Happy Power was three and half lengths behind Limato, who beat D’bai two and a quarter lengths last time they met.
Snazzy Jazzy’s best form is at 6f on deep ground and Mubtasim’s on firm. I don’t expect either one will get his conditions here; it’s likely to be good to soft.
DAQMAN’S BETS
5.25 Haydock (win 20)
BET 6.35pts win TREACHEROUS
5.35 Leicester (win 20 nap)
BET 12pts win RAATEA
6.25 Haydock (win 10)
BET 5pts win TRUESHAN
6.55 Haydock (win 10)
BET 3.75pts win D’BAI
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