THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final between ARSENAL v MAN CITY at 7.45pm with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY
7.45pm What a fantastic FA Cup semi-final, indeed we have two excellent semi-finals this year! Arsenal come into the game with confidence after beating Liverpool midweek and seeing Manchester City labour to beat Bournemouth. That was City’s worst performance for a while even though they won. They only created an xG of 0.59. Compare that to the xG of 3.53 even though they lost 1-0 to Southampton.
Arsenal may have beaten Liverpool 2-1, but they benefitted from two massive errors at the back from Liverpool in the first half and they were battered in the second half – although to their credit they held on. Liverpool created an xG of 2.51 and although they have been out of sorts since claiming the title, it was their best performance for a while (minus the huge mistakes at the back!)
It’s hard to see City not winning to tell the truth, and the market is about right pricing them at 1.35. They usually beat Arsenal easily and they played them off the back when they won 3-0 as the sides met after lockdown. That night, Arsenal couldn’t get the ball off City once they took the lead and settled down to play. And while it’s tempting to back overs or BTTS, I like a small bet at reasonably big odds here.
For over 2.5 goals to win, we’d have to see goals from City and while Arsenal have been scoring lately – they did lose to Spurs and benefitted from Liverpool’s mistakes rather than creating chances. BTTS is odds on and I think that’s fairly priced. City have been in excellent form lately and they probably had one eye on this fixture when playing Bournemouth midweek. They are 4.4 to record Any Other Away Win in the Correct Score market and looking at the most recent fixture between the sides, I like a small punt on City to score four and win here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Away Win at 4.4 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQarsmnc
MATCH STATS
- Arsenal have progressed from nine of their last 12 FA Cup semi-final ties, losing out in 1999, 2004 (both v Manchester United) and 2009 (v Chelsea). Each of the last eight teams to beat Arsenal at the semi-final stage has gone on to win the trophy, in a run stretching back to 1907.
- Manchester City have won 10 of their last 12 FA Cup semi-final matches, with their two defeats in that time coming against Arsenal (1932 and 2017).
- Arsenal are playing in their 30th FA Cup semi-final – no side has ever played in more. They’ve reached the final on 20 occasions, which is also a joint record (level with Manchester United for both).
- Arsenal have lost their last seven meetings with Manchester City in all competitions, by an aggregate score of 2-20. Only against Leeds have Arsenal ever lost more consecutive matches in their history (two runs of 8).
- Manchester City’s last defeat against Arsenal in all competitions was in an FA Cup semi- final, throwing away a 1-0 lead to lose 1-2 in 2017, with Arsenal going on to beat Chelsea in the final.
- This is just the fifth FA Cup meeting between Man City and Arsenal, with Man City winning the first in February 1904, and Arsenal winning the subsequent three (March 1932, February 1971 and April 2017).
- Holders Man City are looking to reach the FA Cup final in consecutive years for the third time, also doing so in 1933/1934 and 1955/1956. The Citizens are unbeaten in their last nine matches at Wembley Stadium, last losing against Arsenal in the 2017 FA Cup semi-final.
- Arsenal have beaten/eliminated the holders of the FA Cup each of the last five times they’ve faced them, with this their first such match since the 2014 semi-final against Wigan Athletic.
- Four of Arsenal’s seven FA Cup goals this season have been scored by players under the age of 21 – the most of any side from the first round proper (Bukayo Saka x1, Eddie Nketiah x2, Reiss Nelson x1).
- Man City’s Phil Foden has had a hand in seven goals in just six FA Cup appearances (4 goals, 3 assists), averaging a goal involvement every 57 minutes in the competition.
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