LAYERS FIND DAQMAN IN TREACHEROUS FORM WITH A HAT-TRICK: After landing three naps out of four this week, yesterday it was three winning tips out of four for Daqman, as he finished unbeaten at Haydock with a hat-trick:
✔️ WON 16-5 TREACHEROUS
✔️ WON 3-1 D’BAI
✔️ WON 5-4 TRUESHAN
*Daqman 16-6 up on Pricewise going into Saturday, and 244.50 in front (10 level stakes)
210-1 BETDAQ SATURDAY DOUBLE FROM YORK AND THE CURRAGH: Daqman analyses the form and stats of the John Smith’s Cup at York, and finds the Press shout for the low drawn ain’t necessarily so! He gives his verdict for an outsider in the Irish Oaks from form examined in his column yesterday. John Smith’s 20.0 best, Irish Oaks 10.0 in big BETDAQ value for around 210-1 the double. Headlines:
🔹 BETDAQ 20.0? IT’S YOUR BIRTHDAY
🔹 ASTRONAUTE HAS COURAGE TO WIN
🔹 FEELING LUCKY? MAKE MY DAY..
🔹 LABURNUM MAY BE OAKS IMPROVER
BETDAQ 20.0? IT’S YOUR BIRTHDAY!
⭕ 2.30 York (John Smith’s Cup) It’s no good you banging on about getting the 14-1 John Smiths winner last year, Daqman: what’s going to win it this year?
You’re as good as your last winner. All tipsters have to work that way unless they’re one of 200 experts who can hide behind each other’s headlines or are nepotist members of a racing team.
Big Names do well. For themselves. They come ‘on the box’ and tell us everything we knew already, until after the race; then they tell us what everyone on the inside knew but we didn’t.
Stats are wheeled out by Anorak, but Scoffer ignores them and then tells the TV audience it’s all about the pace.
Being able to cruise just off the pace was the secret of my last two winners of the race, Ballet Concerto (WON 8-1) and Pivoine (WON 14-1).
As they finish the race centrally, the sting comes from the far edge of the swarm or just inside that group. It’s the place to be, tried and trusted.
🖥️ FORM ANALYSIS We know Pivoine travels well but he’s six now, and only twice since 1969 has an older horse (over five) had enough oomph in his finish to burgle this big field, though he has been ‘looked after’ with the double in mind.
What’s The Story, third last year, is 6lb worse off for being more active at the same level and winning since, while Pivoine is a ‘hidden horse’, in that he spent time in the Pattern and is without further success. Stall 4 today; stall 6 last year.
Sky Defender went with the pace and stayed on in the Mark Johnston style at Epsom on Derby Day, as he had done at Kempton in February over further. He’s up in the ratings but may not have finished improving.
Can he get across from stall 23? I’ve just had a look at Kings Warrior winning in 2012. He got to the far side from gate 19 and came with a run from within the same bunch that Pivoine was produced from.
And there was a sequence of winners at that time (2010 to 2016) from stalls 13, 17, 19, 16, 22, 23 and 14.
The form of the plunge horse, Caradoc, and Great Example, one-two at Newbury in the autumn, was done no harm when Caradoc finished sixth to Sky Defender in the Epsom race, but he tends to get too far behind for me and could face a wall.
I’m attracted to Good Birthday from stall 22. Third in big fields: the London Gold Cup (15 ran) and the Cambridgeshire (30). He’s had two runs back since being gelded, and should be ready to strike.
William Haggas fancies Desert Icon, who was beaten half a length by Good Birthday in the Silver Cup at Beverley last August. With Good Birthday claimed off, Desert Icon will be 13lb worse off today, and the other Haggas runner, Sinnjari, may do better.
Afaak, the 2019 Royal Hunt Cup winner, now six, ran well in the Ascot race again last month but has been disappointing overall, with just that one success in more than two years.
Harrovian won at Doncaster two runs after being gelded; has improved steadily, still unexposed. Solid Stone finished strongly at Sandown, first run after being gelded, and is another with potential.
It brings tears to my eyes to suggest that the recently gelded trio, Good Birthday, Harrovian and Solid Stone are the most likely dangers to a Pivoine double.
BETDAQ VALUE: My Order In is
1: Good Birthday (20.0 BETDAQ), 2: Pivoine (23.0), 3 Harrovian (11.5), 4 Solid Stone, 5 Sky Defender.
ASTRONAUTE HAS COURAGE TO WIN
⭕ 3.05 York Light rain across the English Midlands and up North a bit could take the sting out of the ground for this sprint.
The front two or three in the market usually win it but Equilateral has never won before without a break so, though his second to Battaash at Royal Ascot seemingly sets him apart, his having run in the July Cup only a week ago is a worry.
York CD winner El Astronaute, on the other hand, has put two wins together three times in his 13 strikes from 51 starts. The other front runner, Major Jumbo has York credentials of 01341.
The handicapper says that Que Amoro, who also likes to be up with the pace, has improved 13lb for her last three starts and her York form is 211 but is a filly taking on tough guys here.
Moss Gill won a handicap on the Knavesmire in the autumn and is now 15lb higher but was behind Que Amoro in the summer. I just fancy an in-form El Astronaute (BETDAQ 6.6) for courage.
⭕ 3.25 Newbury The Classic generation has beaten the four-year-olds 6-4 in the decade, and no wonder. Their representatives today get 11lb from the older fillies.
Lady G, by Golden Horn out of a Galileo mare, drops to this Listed from an Irish Oaks entry and, on the ratings, has to find 18lb if she is to beat Virgin Snow.
You can wait until you have to sell the clothes off your back before a run of form by Ed Dunlop but he’s had a good year and victory for Virgin Snow (BETDAQ 5.1), as daughter of his dual Oaks winner Snow Fairy, would be a salute to the stable.
FEELING LUCKY? MAKE MY DAY..
⭕ 3.40 York Four winners poured out of the race won all the way at Goodwood by Make My Day last summer over 1m 6f. Gelded and switched since to Ralph Beckett. If he can bolt round the bend, he could last out this 1m 4f (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning).
Another ‘if’. If all they said about Sandret before pulling him out of a handicap last week is remotely true, his 13.5 offers are very wrong.
⭕ 4.00 Newbury Eight of the last nine winners have been drawn 1 to 6, which is where you’ll find the only Newbury CD winner, The Tin Man.
He’s clear of front-runner Shine So Bright in the ratings but twice the age of Andrew Balding’s grey, who beat Laurens in a battle of courage for a 7f Group 2 here last August.
This is not one of those sprints for the older warriors, like The Tin Man and Judicial, but the six-year-old Dakota Gold loves this track (form here 1230111).
Three-year-olds have won it twice in the last five seasons and Gimcrack-placed Repartee, a winner on his reappearance, might be good enough but the draw sways me to 9.0 Shine So Bright, with Dakota Gold biggish at 10.5.
LABURNUM MAY BE OAKS IMPROVER
⭕ 7.15 The Curragh (Irish Oaks) Form guide: Friday archive.
It was a cracking reappearance for Cayenne Pepper to run up to Magical in the Curragh Pretty Polly but the value has gone after sustained backing during the week for Jessica Harrington’s filly.
Ballydoyle’s Ennistymon looks a ‘nearly horse’ after seconds to Frankly Darling and to Love, while stablemates Snow (bred for a Leger) and Passion (pace pusher at Epsom) may not have the clout for this.
What we need is an improver! Laburnum was still a big baby when she got within a neck of Even So in the Oaks Trial at Naas and ‘could be anything’ with that to educate her.
Even So lends Classic credence to the form, as fifth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. I took 11.5 on BETDAQ .
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 York (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5pts win HARROVIAN
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win GOOD BIRTHDAY
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.25pts win PIVOINE
3.05 York (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win EL ASTRONAUTE
3.25 Newbury (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win VIRGIN SNOW
3.40 York (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win MAKE MY DAY
BET 1.6pts win SANDRET
4.00 Newbury (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win SHINE SO BRIGHT
BET 2pts win DAKOTA GOLD
7.15 The Curragh (win 20, place win 10)
BET 2pts win, 5pts place LABURNUM
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