SECOND 10.0 STRIKE LANDS THIRD DAY OF DAQMAN PROFIT: The daily bets in Daqman’s dynasty of staking plans did exactly what it says on the tin yesterday, making a third consecutive day of profit and yet again revealing the value in BETDAQ offers. As he explained yesterday, his weekday way is simple: decide what you want to win and stake to do so in three bets. One wins: you win.
SUNDAY: Profit on the day: 9.70 points
WON 7-1 REGAL REALITY (win 50 at BETDAQ 10.0)
MONDAY: Profit on the day: 13.25 points
WON 5-2 MYSTERY SMILES (nap)
TUESDAY: Profit on the day: 8.20 points
WON 13-2 ROYAL DYNASTY (w/p 10.0 on BETDAQ)
Daqman continues the analysis of his own special search for value with reasons to oppose the market leader: Looking For A Bad Favourite.
LOOKING FOR A BAD FAVOURITE
Pro punters don’t know it all. They don’t try to. In fact, a typical answer if you ask them ‘what advice can you give the average punter?’ is to ‘narrow your field’.
Don’t try to bet in every race; don’t look at the entire card; keep your mind on areas you do well in, whether big conditions races, handicaps, two-year-old tests; whatever.
You know this type of race gives you your best return because you have kept records of your bets and know where your ability lies.
But the number-one advice from the sage pro is always the same, a constant nagging in the ear of the novice backer: ‘Bet the value, not the horse’.
This has a strong adjunct: ‘Look for a weak favourite.’ That’s the race the canny punter wants to be in.
Overround Remember that 50-50 chance we talked about yesterday, well the bookmaker wants to insert his profit and make you bet (that’s the right-hand figure) maybe 55 collectively to pay out 45. The book is not ‘round’; it’s overround against you.
Imagine the bookmaker adds a 10% profit margin, and the front of the market is 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 (33%, 25%, 20%), with the rest of the field making up a total ‘book’ of 110%.
Now, knock out the 2-1 favourite (110 minus 33) and, instead of being overround against you, the percentage probabilities now add up to a punter-friendly 100-77, in which to play a horse or horses against the favourite.
That’s a simplistic view. And, as Mrs Beaton said out coursing one day: first catch your harebrained favourite!
Reasons I like to find three reasons to bet against a favourite, but they are legion: it’s the wrong trip; wrong ground; stable out of form; horse doesn’t like the course; never wins fresh; never wins back to back or after a short interval between engagements; has a penalty; is raised in grade; his winning jockey rides elsewhere; has never won a race (maiden) or not won since he broke his maiden (always a bad sign).. or simply, all the tipsters are on, so it can’t possibly win!
On BETDAQ, you can lay this favorite (back him to lose) and/or oppose him by betting on something else in the value sub-field he’s created for you. But how about value in a single horse?
Let’s move on a few weeks and that favourite you laid (who ‘got beat’) can now make more money for you: he is running again in a lower-grade race, dropped back to the right trip and class on his favourite track.
He is now a ‘hidden horse’ in my vocabulary and, with most punters ignoring him as a losing favourite, he’s a good price (or even bigger offer on BETDAQ). In other words, he’s ‘value’.
The search for value is to find the ‘wrong’ price, offers bigger than they should be, and to avoid odds which are shorter than they should be.
Reality Sir Michael Stoute’s recent form will serve to illustrate a ‘hidden horse’, my winning bull’s-eye bet, Regal Reality.
Ignoring first run of each year, Regal Reality had only ever won in Group 3, though not disgraced in Group 1 and 2, twice running well in the Eclipse, including third to Enable. Firm-ground form: 13313.
Dropped to Group 3 on firm-ground on Sunday, he was 10.0 on BETDAQ. WON 7-1.
Regal Reality wore a first-time visor. Sir Michael strikes at 50% when introducing the blinds (8-16). It was all there, wasn’t it.
Next: create your own value!
MANY REASONS FOR BILLIAN
⭕ 2.40 Beverley ‘Pythagoras has all angles covered’ would have made a good headline for the opener, however he looks a little short based on an Ayr debut second in a four horse race. He should improve but is up against two Godolphin runners who are not without support in the early market. I’ll just watch that race – you can’t back ’em all.
Despite the effect being mitigated in recent seasons, a high draw at Beverley over five furlongs usually draws me in but even more so when it’s occupied by horses with leading form chances.
Sound Of Dubai and Billian were second and third over course and distance on debut eight days ago and have both fared well with their draws of 11 and 13 respectively.
The market says Sound Of Dubai to confirm the form but I think there’s every chance that Billian can turn that form around as he didn’t have the best of the draw last time and also met a fair amount of trouble in running. With a better rub of the green he should reverse the form.
STAYING INDEPENDENT WITH BERTIE
⭕ 3.10 Beverley If you fancy market leader Independence Day you have just got to give him the benefit of the doubt after his latest effort at Wolverhampton.
The the seven-year-old was disappointing when going off 5/2 favourite and fluffing his lines at the start. A switch back to the turf today may help but you are playing at similar odds again on a horse that’s career CV is 2-43.
There might be more to come from Invincible Bertie who shaped well on his reappearance at Ripon after a lengthy absence and also his first start since wind surgery.
He was nibbled at in the market and a reproduction of that effort might easily good enough to win this lowly contest.
GETTING MY PRICE ON TASAAMUH
⭕ 7.40 Wolverhampton I was hoping for anything above evens about Tasaamuh here – so when I saw 2.03 on BETDAQ at the time of writing – she makes the cut – just.
She already has a tick in the box with all-weather form as was a good third on debut at Kempton and improved on that effort to chase home My Oberon at York.
She did however put six and a half lengths between herself and the third and My Oberon went on to finish runner-up in a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood.
That stacks up much better form that the Charlie Appleby runner Vottoria Light who improved on a down the field debut run to finish second to long odds-on Darain back at Newmarket last month.
The unbeaten Darain is obviously useful and holds a St Leger entry but it’s quite dangerous to take the form too literally when one horse dominates both the market and the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.8pts win BILLIAN (2.40 Beverley)
BET 1.7pts win INVINCIBLE BERTIE (3.10 Beverley)
BET 9.7pts win (nap) TASAAMUH (7.40 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
