CHAMPIONS LEAGUE THURSDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the Champions League quarter final on Thursday between RB LEIPZIG V ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
RB LEIPZIG V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm What a fantastic Champions League Quarter Final! Both these sides have been impressive in their domestic leagues this season and have very good underlining xG numbers. We’re bound to have a very good game here. Atletico Madrid can sometimes play a cagey and negative game but with a one leg Quarter Final they’re going to have to attack at some stage. They have been on a very long unbeaten run – it goes back 16 games to before lockdown and RB Leipzig will have their hands full.
Leipzig bossed Spurs to reach this stage but let’s be honest, Spurs have been woeful this season. Their xG numbers were poor and the stats show Mourinho hasn’t improved them either. I wouldn’t read too much into the Spurs games, but Leipzig were impressive nonetheless and they’ve only lost once in the Champions League this season.
Leipzig only recorded one loss in the Bundesliga since returning from lockdown and that came against Dortmund. They have had their fair share of draws though and a few of their results are worrying from their point of view. The draws with Dusseldorf, Paderborn and Hertha Berlin stand out. Obviously there is a lot more importance on this fixture, but I’m very keen on Atletico Madrid here at 2.5.
As always, the worry when backing Atletico is the draw. They won’t attack too early and will generally grind out the big games. The thing is though, they are masters are grinding out these big games and their underlining numbers towards the end of the season in La Liga were very impressive. We landed some big bets on them with them creating plenty of chances. They’re always rock solid at the back and they can stop Leipzig while creating enough to score at the other end. I’d have Atletico closer to 2.0 here and they look cracking value at 2.5.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Atletico Madrid to beat RB Leipzig at 2.5 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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