EUROPA LEAGUE SUNDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the Europa League semi-final on Sunday between SEVILLA v MANCHESTER UNITED with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SEVILLA v MANCHESTER CITY
8pm What a fantastic semi-final we have in the Europa League on Sunday night. Both these sides have been excellent since returning from lockdown, and a fascinating game awaits. I feel like it will be a game of chess though with very little chances. Both sides had very little chances in their Quarter Finals and it’s hard to see anything other than a very close and hard fought affair here.
Sevilla grinded out a late win against Wolves, but that’s just what they do. They are generally quiet in the first half before finding a goal or two late on. United needed extra time to get past Copenhagen which has to be a worry. xG says they should have won easily; however they finished the Premier League looking tired and although they have had time to recover from extra time, it’s hardly a positive.
Both sides have remarkably similar stats in the Europa League this season. Both are creating just over 2 goals per game and conceding an xG of just under 1. Something has to give! United have been lucky to only concede 4 goals in 11 games as xG says they should have conceded more than 8, but that’s still less than a goal a game. Sevilla are very similar.
I can see very few chances here and a very tight game. There are a couple of options. Under 2.5 goals is trading around 1.65, and Both Teams Not To Score is around 1.98. Both are solid options looking at the make-up of both sides, however I’m going to take a chance with the draw at 3.25. I can easily see a 0-0 or 1-1 here, and although under 2.5 goals is tempting given how both sides play we could easily see a 0-0 and the draw looks good value at 3.25.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.25 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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