CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the Champions League final on Sunday between PSG v BAYERN MUNICH with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
PSG V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm What a final! This should be an absolute cracker and a fantastic way to end the 2019/2020 season that none of us will ever forget! It’s been a disappointing season for many football fans with a big unexpected break and not being able to go to the stadiums afterwards; but the next best thing is watching two top quality sides meet in a big final like this.
Both sides dominated their semi-finals with PSG running out 3-0 winners against RB Leipzig and Bayern repeating the same score line against Lyon. PSG were very impressive against RB Leipzig but we have to consider that Bayern Munich have been hammering everyone in the Bundesliga for a while now. They were by far and away the best side in the Bundesliga this season and even allowing for PSG being well on top against RB Leipzig, Bayern are a different animal.
Bayern have been excellent all season, although you’d have to say that they gave up plenty of chances to Lyon in the semi-final. Of course we all know just how good they are going forward – they are the best team in Europe – but Lyon definitely shown that PSG can create chances and score here. There’s no doubt the backroom staff will be all over what Lyon did and if PSG get the same volume of chances – they won’t miss them like Lyon.
Both sides have impressive numbers, but you can see why Bayern are the favourites. They have scored a whopping 42 goals in the Champions League this season while only conceding eight. PSG have scored 25 and conceded five – but xG would suggest they are very lucky to only concede five with xG saying they should have conceded more than double that. Bayern will get plenty of chances against this PSG side and they are worth backing at 2.08 to take them.
This fixture screams goals, goals and more goals. However the market has that priced in. Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.42 and you could hardly argue with that. Both teams to score is the same price and after the chances Bayern gave to Lyon; you’d fancy PSG to score. While I’m expecting a lot of goals, I can’t see past the Bayern win here. Their xG numbers are incredible and they have the class to beat this PSG side. PSG are a very good side, but have they been tested in the last few weeks? Bayern are at a completely different level to Dortmund, Atalanta and RB Leipzig – they will be a step too far for this PSG side.
It has been a pleasure previewing the best games in Europe this season and we should finish the season with an ROI between 18% and 20% depending on the results in the finals, for a points profit of in or around 50 points. I hope you backed a few winners and I’ll be back next season which starts very soon!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Bayern Munich to beat PSG at 2.08 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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