THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League Preview 2020/2021 including title winner, top four, Europa League spots and relegation.
Premier League Preview 2020/2021
The Premier League season is nearly here and I can’t wait, writes The Striker.
With the Champions League running straight after the Premier League finished, it barely feels like we’ve had a break! The 2020/2021 season will start behind closed doors and who knows what will happen as the season goes on. Hopefully fans can get back in the stadium at some stage, and we did have rumours that we might only see home fans and no away fans. What a different kind of atmosphere that will bring!
With this season starting so soon after the last and no real “normal” summer transfer market, I feel that we will just continue from where we left off after lockdown. It was hard for a lot of teams to play behind closed doors with nothing to play for, and I expect a lot more fierce battles at the start of the season.
TITLE WINNER:
Naturally every football fan will think there’s a chance that their side can win – well at least the top eight or so. The reality is the winner will come from Liverpool and Manchester City. It’s straightforward looking at the betting but I just can’t see the winner coming from outside those two. They are head and shoulders above the rest.
I don’t agree with the odds though. At the time of writing, Manchester City are trading 2.02 with Liverpool 3.0. We all know just how good Liverpool played last season, winning the league by a whopping 18 points. Of course they eased off a little after lockdown when they were confirmed as Champions but make no mistake, they will start on top form. At 3.0 they look incredible value to lift the title again.
Manchester City had good xG numbers last season; indeed xG put them in first. Their squad is a huge bonus when we will have such a quick turnaround and a very busy Christmas period. However they continue to make too many mistakes at the back for me. I can see them having some surprise defeats to the likes of Wolves and Everton, but I can’t see that happening Liverpool. The Reds are more solid at the back, and that’s what will win the title again.
If you asked me who are the better team; the answer is Manchester City. As we seen when the teams met recently after lockdown, but over the course of the season Liverpool will make less mistakes and drop less points.
TOP FOUR:
With Liverpool and Manchester City certain of finishing first and second, the rest of the “top six” have to battle it out for two Champions League spots. Last season Manchester United and Chelsea were those two teams and I don’t see that changing this season. Arsenal and Spurs look very poor at the moment and although Arsenal lifted the FA Cup; it’s very difficult to see them becoming a steady team that pick up points. We’ll always get those disappointing results against lower sides who out battle them.
With Spurs I feel it’s a disaster waiting to happen. Looking at the underlining numbers, Jose Mourinho hasn’t improved Spurs. He will want to spend money and no doubt he’ll have been promised money – but Spurs aren’t exactly a big spending club and if Mourinho doesn’t get what he wants then it will all kick off. He threw his toys out of the pram early with Manchester United and you can easily see the same thing happening here.
Leicester had a good run last season but they don’t have the same quality as Manchester United and Chelsea, while the likes of Wolves and Everton just aren’t good enough. Manchester United should finish third as they were excellent after lockdown – they are very far away from being in a position to challenge for the title but they can become a solid top four side again and much of the same can be said about Chelsea. Although Chelsea are better than Arsenal and Spurs; I would suggest they won’t really improve on last season.
EUROPA SPOTS:
We could see a big shake up here. Leicester and Spurs finished 5th and 6th last season and Leicester would be very hopeful of getting into the Europa League again. They are more reliable than Arsenal, Spurs, Wolves and Everton. The Arsenal underlining numbers last season were very poor and although they lifted the FA Cup; they were very lucky to beat Manchester City. Spurs inspire no confidence at all and I don’t see them finishing in the top six along with Mourinho lasting the season. Their class might get them through, but I can see a very tough season again.
Looking at some of their Championship games, Leeds might have a chance of pushing the top six – without actually getting there. They have the talent, but it’s all about how they adapt to the Premier League.
My Europa League spots would be Wolves and Leicester with Arsenal, Spurs and Everton all in the mix but missing out. Wolves had good numbers last season and I don’t see Arsenal or Spurs improving.
RELEGATION:
The relegation battle seems to be the same very season! One detached team and then pick two from five very close sides. Just change the clubs! Maybe this season we’ll see nobody detached as there are a couple of poor sides. With that being said, Sheffield United started last season odds on to go down and they nearly had a Europa League spot. They were very poor after lockdown and that cost them dearly.
Looking at last season’s xG numbers, two of the bottom three actually didn’t go down. Aston Villa and Newcastle were lucky; but in fairness Villa finished the season strongly under pressure to stay up and all credit to them. I really fancy Newcastle to go down this season. Their numbers were woeful last season and if they keep giving up all those chances they surely can’t win many games. They have lost their big money investment too and with the fans and the owner relationship; they are a club never far from drama. A slow start will see them in massive trouble.
From the other two, you’d have to be looking at Aston Villa, West Brom and Fulham. I would also throw Brighton and Crystal Palace into the mix – but they usually do enough to stay up. West Brom and Fulham are highly likely to go back down based on their Championship performances. My three would be West Brom, Fulham and Newcastle in that order.
Enjoy the season!
The Striker previewed every Premier League game after lockdown for a points profit of 19.58 with an ROI of 10%. While our European football expert The Ultra had an ROI of 19% with a profits profit of 50.19.
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