DAQMAN 37-24 UP ON PRICEWISE AND WITH 10 NAPS THIS MONTH: Daqman goes into today’s Ayr Gold Cup meeting 37-24 clear of Pricewise on winners and 127 points ahead to level stakes. His nap is showing a profit of 62 points after 10 winners in September. Look out today for bull’s-eye bets and a Fortune Cookies double.
🔹 ADDEYBB BACK AT A LOWER LEVEL
🔹 PHANTOM THROWN IN FOR HOLLIE
🔹 BETDAQ 21.0 ARBALET TO MAKE ALL
🔹 MR LUPTON HAS CLASS FOR GOLD
🔹 PRIDE IN OUR FORTUNE COOKIES
BETDAQ VALUE ON AYR GOLD CUP DAY Offers on Ayr Gold Cup Day added up to incredibly low overrounds on BETDAQ this morning. At 10.am., there were races totalling 103, 105 and 106%. Compare that with SP percentage totals of 136, 129 and 122 (twice) at Ayr yesterday.
ADDEYBB BACK AT A LOWER LEVEL
⭕ 1.55 Ayr (Doonside Cup) Soft-ground lover Addeybb has waited for the autumn weather, since his second to Lord North in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot.
His form figures in the last 15 months, including two wins for Fortune Cookies, have been 1212112, narrowly missing out on the 2019 Champion Stakes by half a length to Magical, who has just won the Irish Champion by outgunning Ghaiyyath.
Such form should make Addeybb long odds-on here, half a stone higher in the ratings than anything else in the race, but he’s never had the ITV hype, is six years old now and punters are always nervous of an absentee.
Last year’s Queen Anne (1m) winner Lord Glitters, back-to-form Euchen Glen and the Listed-only winner Dalgarno are all now seven, and the handicapper Fox Chairman is a nearly horse at Group level (form figures 2022). Like Lord Glitters, San Donato’s best form is at a mile.
This is only Listed level and Addeybb is a 20-point Fortune Cookies bet plus an extra 10-points for nap status on the day.
PHANTOM THROWN IN FOR HOLLIE
⭕ 2.15 Newbury Ouzo, gelded before his last run, has been campaigned at a mile but some lines in his pedigree suggest further and he’s worth a try at this 10 furlongs.
Ilaraab made his improvement from class 5 to class 2 in one leap on the last day, and today is a test for the Cambridgeshire.
This is another step up for Tenbury Wells who has been gradually climbing the grades. In front a bit soon on the soft at Sandown.
Forget Maydanny’s run on poor ground at York. He’d made all in the Johnston style at Goodwood, though the jury is still out as to whether he can carry 11lb more.
The City’s Phantom, a big strong animal, was well backed as soon as books were opened, with Hollie Doyle getting lumps of weight all round to cash in on their York success over subsequent Salisbury winner, Nasraawy. I took 9.9 ‘Phantom’ and 9.3 Maydanny
BETDAQ 21.0 ARBALET TO MAKE ALL
⭕ 2.30 Ayr (Ayr Silver Cup) Five of the first six finishers in the Bronze yesterday came from stalls 14 to 24, which followed the pattern of last year’s Gold (see below).
But you can expect the low-drawn favourite, royal runner King’s Lynn, to get a strong tow from Arbalet, who is the enigma of the race, having spent most of his 27 career starts at 7f, often fading from the front.
Cheekpieces today to prompt him to a quick start suggest that Arbalet (21.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is intended to make every yard.
Meanwhile, just inside from Arbalet’s stall 2, Kings Lynn (out of 6), is having only the fourth race of his life. He won a big-field £300,000 Sales race last September, and his defeat first run back was to a subsequent Listed winner.
His 94 rating – the same for Aberama Gold – fits five of the last six winners of this Silver consolation. Aberama Gold, who has slipped down the handicap, was a course-and-distance winner at this meeting last year: BETDAQ 25.0.
Of the high numbers, the placed horses have let down the form of the Goodwood success of Atalanta’s Boy (15).
Rathbone (22), second at Ascot the last day (2019 winner of this, Golden Apollo, behind) is closely matched with Arbalet but may improve for his wind-ops and he’s from the right stable.
⭕ 3.05 Ayr (Group 3) Umm Kulthum was third in the Lowther after a moderate start. Lullaby Moon has won twice at Goodwood, and the form there translates to Ayr.
But it might be worth having a pound on Sloane Peterson (BETDAQ 15.0), lightly raced by Fozzy Stack with this meeting in mind. The stable had a winner at Naas on Thursday .
MR LUPTON HAS CLASS FOR GOLD
⭕ 3.40 Ayr (Ayr Gold Cup) Stalls 17 to 24 have won six of the last eight, and in the Bronze yesterday five of the first six finishers came from stalls 14 to 24.
Only one winner in more than 40 years has been older than six. That said, today’s only septenially-challenged contenders are Spanish City and Mr Lupton, both with excellent chances on form.
Spanish City runs off the same mark as when third in the Wokingham, so Roger Varian is claiming off him and hoping this 7f winner will find his feet off a fast pace.
Spanish City has travelled North only three times since the start of 2018 (Doncaster, Newcastle and York) for form figures of 114.
Mr Lupton is half a stone lower than when down the field last year and has just won the Bold Lad Sprint at the Curragh (Gulliver behind).
He won a Group 2 at the Curragh last year, and a Group 3 at Newbury in 2018, so his class could see him produce another good run today, despite a 5lb penalty.
Also penalised 5lb are Stone Of Destiny, who won the Portland for Daqman fans at 16-1 a week ago (Arecibo fourth; Barbill sixth) and the Great St Wilfrid hero, Staxton.
Both Staxton and Stone Of Destiny were a long way back in this Ayr race a year ago. Barbill and Major Jumbo, who is slipping down the handicap, are others with poor form at Ayr.
Nahaarr was a disappointing favourite in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood but that had happened twice before when the surface was firm.
He likes genuinely good ground as when third in the Silver Wokingham and a good winner at Newbury. Has scored over 7f and likes to be up with the pace.
Blinkers (Arecibo), cheekpieces (Wise Counsel) and wind ops (Bielsa, Kynren) are tried in an effort to squeeze a few more pounds out of recent losers.
Blinkers worked wonders for Hey Jonesy in the Wokingham but first-time visors made no difference to him in the 2019 running of today’s race, in which Gulliver was third off a 4lb lower mark.
Verdict: The pace appears to be on the middle-to-high side. Nahaarr (13) and Mr Lupton (11) look strong with Mr Lupton better value at 9.9 on BETDAQ. From 18, Clive Cox has pinched Daniel Tudhope for Wise Counsel (11.0), on which he won over a 7f winner at this meeting a year ago.
PRIDE IN OUR FORTUNE COOKIES
⭕ 3.25 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) Fortune Cookies fans are hoping for a double today via Addeybb at Ayr and, in this Mill Reef, Bahrain Pride who has a nice draw in 3.
Six winners have come from stalls 1, 2, 3, with none in the decade bigger than 4-1 at SP.
Roger Varian (runs Line Of Departure today), Clive Cox (First Edition) and Richard Fahey (Rhythm Master) have all won the race in the last five years.
But this afternoon’s renewal race has all the makings of a revenge match, with slow-away Fivethousandtoone turned over at odds on by Bahrain Pride at Windsor. Both have won since
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 Ayr
FORTUNE COOKIE (and nap)
BET 30pts win ADDEYBB
2.15 Newbury (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 6pts win MAYDANNY
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.5pts win THE CITY’S PHANTOM
2.30 Ayr (win 50 and win 30)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2.5pts win ARBALET
BULL’S-EYE BET: 2pts win ABERAMA GOLD
BET 6pts win KINGS LYNN
3.05 Ayr (win 50, place win 10)
BET 3.5pts win and place SLOANE PETERSON
3.25 Newbury
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 20pts win BAHRAIN PRIDE
3.40 Ayr (win 50 and win 30)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5.5pts win MR LUPTON
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win WISE COUNSEL
BET 5pts win NAHAARR
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