6-1 SHOT KEEPS WINNER-A-DAY MOMENTUM GOING FOR DAQMAN: You need a long memory in the racing game. Winner-a-day Daqman didn’t forget a one-time Fortune Cookie, Kinross (WON 6-1), at Kempton last night but not with enough confidence, and made it a saver second to Khuzaam. The roles were reversed with Khuzaam runner-up, the pair paying 16-1 on a Ladbrokes forecast.
TODAY’S HEADLINES WITH THE NAP AN IRISH RAIDER AT RASEN: Today Daqman suggests keeping a close watch on racing at three venues in England and Ireland, which are similar sharp tracks, requiring astute jockeyship. His nap is an Irish raider at Market Rasen.
🔹 WATCH OUT! IT’S ALL GOING RIGHT
🔹 MONALEE IS BEST AT TODAY’S TRIP
🔹 A BRIDGE BACK TO HURDLES FORM
🔹 AL BACK CAPONE AT 9.7 ON BETDAQ
🔹 FLAGRANT IS ONE WITH A FUTURE
WATCH OUT! IT’S ALL GOING RIGHT
Are you really watching the race? Not just your horse; not just events unfolding. You should reprise and ask who got it wrong; what cost the favourite the prize, which rider got the run on them because he knew the track well?
While our sport is sofa-bound, we can all learn more, and what better day than when three very similar tracks are racing at the same time; all sharp right-handers, which need the best of jockeyship.
Market Rasen and Wincanton expect showers on good-to-soft ground. Thurles is already soft with more rain expected but is not as holding as some, and does not normally deteriorate into a bog.
MARKET RASEN: Right-handed, sharp; easy fences. Deceptive straight: if you are behind turning in, it’s hard to make up the ground but, if you’re in front too soon, it’s a long, old way home!
Your horse needs to travel well and be ridden to slip down the inside rail on the incline into the straight.. but keep that rhythm going and hold him together!
Patience has rewarded Sam Twiston-Davies, Dan Skelton and Aidan Coleman with success from around a quarter of their rides.
THURLES: Right-handed, sharp but with uphill sections and the track falls away downhill into a shortish straight of around two furlongs. Paul Townend and Jack Kennedy have excellent strike-rates.
WINCANTON: Right-handed sharp track. Jockeys on hold-up horses must not exaggerate their tactics, as they might find they are struggling to catch something that’s slipped through on the run to the home turn.
Upright stiff fences are not to be treated lightly, and catch out many a tired horse in the final straight.
Second only to Fontwell as Daryl Jacobs’s best track. He’s ridden 76 winners at Wincanton with a level-stakes profit and a massive 55% strike rate in a recent run of 5-9; Harry Cobden has 66 for a win rate that’s hardly varied from 28 to 31%.
MONALEE IS BEST AT TODAY’S TRIP
⭕ 1.20 Thurles Three nearly horses still in the hunt for gold clash in this, with Presenting Percy likely to have the fitness edge from recent racecourse experience at Down Royal.
We can expect to see a different Percy, now that he has joined Gordon Elliott but he hasn’t won over less than 3m for more than three years, on his way to winning the RSA by seven lengths from Monalee.
And I understand that Gordon Elliott is looking beyond the Gold Cup with the Grand National in mind for the long-term target.
Monalee (4th) and Kemboy (7th) haven’t been seen since the Cheltenham Gold Cup, in which Presenting Percy fell when under pressure to get involved.
Monalee, who goes well fresh, has form of 113143 over around 2m 4f and he finished in front of Kemboy more recently when they were second and fourth in the Savill’s Chase (3m) at Leopardstown over Christmas, a race Kemboy won the year before.
Monalee was unlucky not to win it last December when Rachael Blackmore lost an iron as she fought to hold on near the fi ish. Presenting Percy was fifth.
A BRIDGE BACK TO HURDLES FORM
⭕ 1.30 Market Rasen Tower Bridge is a young horse of real class starting a new career after almost a year off, switched to Joseph O’Brien, who has most of his irons in the fire at Thurles today.
This is his only runner here at Market Rasen and he’s booked course-specialist jockey Aidan Coleman.
Tower Bridge lost his way over fences after running second in one of the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival but was a quality hurdler.
At one stage, he was being considered for the Ballymore after beating Jetz at Leopardstown, and looks a good bet here to bridge the gap back to that smart hurdles form. Value at 6.8 this morning in the BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
AL BACK CAPONE AT 9.7 ON BETDAQ
⭕ 1.40 Wincanton Robbie Power will be missed at Thurles, where he has a high strike-rate, while Wincanton is still a learning curve.
Jonjo O’Neill Jnr, who has won here on Buckthorn George, rides for dad, with his mount, Carys’ Commodity, 2-3 under him this year. Hiked 12lb for scoring at Fakenham but nothing else in the race has the form or a recent show of strength.
Just as we didn’t know that Present Man was over the top yesterday we don’t know whether stablemate Accomplice is back to his best after 636 days’ absence. We don’t even know what his best is.
First run for Paul Nicholls after scoring in France, he was easy to back at 7-1 and finished lame at Exeter.
Capone (BETDAQ 9.7) and Daryl Jacob have a chance if the ground remains good to soft or better, and I prefer a bit of win and place against the obvious.
FLAGRANT IS ONE WITH A FUTURE
⭕ 2.12 Wincanton Another top weight with a big chance here. When he left Paul Nicholls, Earth Leader won six consecutive Points and hunter-chases, and was switched back to Rules racing in Harry Fry’s squad. May need a sounder surface.
David Bass and Kim Bailey have been in terrific form, and have improved Lots Of Luck 25lb in five runs this year with form figures of 12112 on all sorts of ground but is this 2m 4f a trip too far?
He won at 18 furlongs at Taunton as a novice chaser and stepped up to today’s trip a few days later at Huntingdon, when he weakened on the run-in but the race may have come too soon and he lost a shoe.
Harry Cobden takes over on Flagrant Delitiep, who ran well over the CD here last month after a long absence. My man in the long grass tells me he is a five-year-old with a future: BETDAQ 7.2 this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Thurles (win 10)
BET 4pts win MONALEE
1.30 Market Rasen (win 20, nap)
BET 3.5pts win TOWER BRIDGE
1.40 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 1.25pts win CAPONE
2.12 Wincanton (win 10)
Bet 1.6pts win FLAGRANT DELITIEP
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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