TIZZARD STABLE MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SATURDAY’S BIG RACE: Here’s Daqman’s horse-by-horse analysis of Saturday”s Ladbrokes Trophy field at Newbury in order of their qualifications in the stats from the history of the race in the last 20 years or so. He explains how Colin Tizzard may hold the key. The Newbury going is currently good to soft but the weather is fine, so the survey is based on a fairly sound surface.
KEMPTON TRIO: DAQMAN has three late bets on Wednesday on the Kempton card. Hoping to go one better, literally, than yesterday. His three selections finishing 222 and the final one beaten a nose at 3/1.
LADBROKES TROPHY ABC Guide
⚠️ HEADS UP Colin Tizzard prepped his pair, Copperhead and Mister Malarky, on the same day a month before Saturday’s Ladbrokes Trophy. The stable was below par at the time and both need to bounce back. Here’s how they achieve top of the stats in this ABC guide by Daqman.
3.00 Newbury, Saturday (Ladbrokes Trophy)
A: AGE: 19-21 winners were aged eight or younger
B: DISTANCE: 17-19 had won a chase of at least 3m
C: WEIGHT: 10st 12lb to 11st 6lb: 11-19
D: COURSE: 14-19 had run at Newbury before.
E: QUALITY: 12-19 had won a Graded race
F: TRAINERS: Nicky Henderson 3, Paul Nicholls 3, Colin Tizzard 2
ABCDEF COPPERHEAD
Won the Reynoldstown in the Spring, back to back with the Mandarin here at Newbury over the Trophy trip. Flopped in the RSA and pulled up over hurdles on his return.
ABCDEF MISTER MALARKY
Sixth in this last year off the same mark. Ran well in the Autumn Gold Cup at Cheltenham a month back, though the ground was too soft.
ABCDE SAM BROWN
Very lightly raced; strong galloper. Third to Imperial Aura the last day. Soft-heavy ground the key.
ABCE KILDISART
Beat Mister Malarkey on the Mildmay Course at Aintree in 2019 but well behind the same horse at Kempton in February before neck defeat by The Conditional in the Ultima at Cheltenham, Vinndication fourth
ABCE TWO FOR GOLD
Consistent for currently-hot stable but jumped badly when trounced by Copperhead at Ascot in February. Good run back at Wetherby last month but prefers soft ground.
ABC AYE RIGHT
Novice chaser down the field in the RSA; not moved off 146 until good effort, third, behind Cyrname and Vinndication in the Charlie Hall at the end of last month.
ABDEF SECRET INVESTOR
Travelled strongly with good ground in his favour but could not get on terms with Native River in the Denman here at Newbury in February. Returned last month for comfortable win over Potterman.
ABDE THE CONDITIONAL
Second in this last year after scoring on the soft at Cheltenham but 9lb higher now after beating Kildisart in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival (Vinndication fourth).
ABDF DANNY WHIZZBANG
Beat just two others in Grade-2 novice chase at this meeting a year ago to complete a four-timer in Point, hurdle and chase but down the field behind Copperhead at Ascot and again in Wincanton Silver Trophy (beaten favourite, bled).
ABD ARDLETHEN
Beaten by Danny Whizzbang at this meeting a year ago and even further behind Two For Gold at Warwick in January.
ABD POTTERMAN
Light-bodied, top-of-the-ground type, seven lengths off Secret Investor at Chepstow but improved, staying on, beaten a shorthead for the Wincanton Silver Trophy last month on a sound surface.
ABE CLOTH CAP
Third in the 2019 Scottish Grand National and in the frame in quality races since, without impressing.
ABE VINNDICATION
Won the Autumn Gold Cup at Ascot a year ago before fourth to The Conditional in the Ultima and only two lengths off the very smart Cyrname in the Charlie Hall.
AD THE HOLLOW GINGE
Soft-ground lover, a winner only in novice company so far, and failed to complete in his last two starts.
BCDE REGAL ENCORE
Has scored only at Ascot in the last five years, a track which transforms him, despite his age. He won a Grade-3 Gold Cup there the last day for owner J P McManus and the stable of Anthony Honeyball., which was sizzling at the time.
BDEF BEWARE THE BEAR
Back-to-back wins at Cheltenham last year, including the Ultima. Has raced only once since, fourth in this Ladbroke Trophy off his current mark, and is being prepared for the Grand National.
BDE BALLYOPTIC
Runner-up in the 2018 Scottish National and won the Charlie Hall last November. Another being aimed at Aintree.
BDE LA BAGUE AU ROI
Four in a row novice chasing in Graded company early last year among 14 wins but disappointing since, including beaten 20 lengths at Perth in September when subject of a gamble.
CDE BLACK OP
Grade-1 winning hurdler but near misses at Cheltenham continued as a chaser and has been placed on the championship course four times without winning. Best form at 2m 4f-5f.
TOP OF THE CHARTS
⭕ 4.00 Kempton The card starts with a 6f novice event and looks destined to go to Popmaster
He ran a pretty astonishing race on debut last month where he looked clueless for much of the race but when the penny dropped he still managed to win – despite meeting late interference.
It was a good effort and the form looked strong at the time with the runner-up having previously run well at Haydock.
I’m fully expecting Popmaster to know much more about the game today and improve sufficiently to counter-balance his 7lb penalty.
The obvious danger looks to be Kath’s Toyboy who drops back to six furlongs having finished runner-up over seven on debut at Chelmsford.
He was doing his best work at the end that day, so the drop back in trip is not an obvious positive to my eyes.
Cash Machine has seen some early support on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. The stable don’t excel though with their two-year-olds and as a whole are not in the best of form.
STAGE LOOKS SET FOR PALLADIUM
⭕ 5.30 Kempton London Palladium can continue the excellent recent run of Hugo Palmer (4 winners from his last 14).
He makes his all-weather debut here but is also a class dropper. In September he was in a valuable sales race at the Curragh and has since won a class 3 at Catterick before being outclassed at Doncaster last time out.
Seven furlongs looks his perfect trip and he is preferred to market leader Fayathaan who scrambled home to win in a blanket finish at Newcastle last time out over six furlongs and has been punished 5lb.
KEMPTON CULTURE CLUB
⭕ 6.40 Kempton Tom Marquand came between me and a winning NAP yesterday when his Saratoga Gold over-hauled Branwell in the closing stages at Lingfield. I’m tipping Marquand here with what looks a good ride on Culture.
He ran well on stable debut for Tom Ward on the all-weather at Chantilly – beaten less than a length into third. The form is hard to work out but it looks probable that Culture has been freshened up for a change of scenery. He’s twice a winner here at Kempton.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points)
BET 10.0pts win (nap) POPMASTER (4.00 Kempton)
BET 3.0pts win LONDON PALLADIUM (5.30 Kempton)
BET 3.4pts win CULTURE (7.40 Kempton)
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