EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews a busy night of Europa League action on Thursday with Arsenal, Leicester, Celtic, Tottenham and Rangers all in action. All matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
MOLDE V ARSENAL
5.55pm Another interesting Thursday evening ahead in the Europa League! We start with Molde hosting Arsenal after losing 4-1 in London before the International break. Since then Arsenal have ran into trouble as they lost 3-0 to Aston Villa and drew 0-0 against Leeds at the weekend. However, they were very lucky to get a 0-0 draw with Leeds creating an xG of 2.01. Arsenal clearly have issues and while hopes are high around Arteta, when you look at the underlining numbers it doesn’t seem much has changed. Of course Arsenal are unlikely to be massively tested this evening, but at the moment you’d have to say they are looking at a similar season again.
The thing you have to remember with Arsenal though is they generally haven’t taken their Premier League form into the Europa League. How many times have they been in major trouble in the Premier League, only to turn on the style away from home in the Europa League against lower opposition. I think that’s exactly what will happen here, and although I want to keep stakes pretty low, I’m very happy to take the 1.87 on Arsenal here. They absolutely bossed the game against Molde, and it’s hard to see how Molde turn that around so soon – even with home advantage.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Arsenal to beat Molde at 1.87 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMolArs
BRAGA V LEICESTER
5.55pm Leicester hit a bump in the road at the weekend with a 3-0 loss against Liverpool in which they were completely outplayed. We have to remember however that Liverpool are a superb team, and in general Leicester have been playing some good football. Indeed before the International break they brushed aside Braga with a smooth 4-0 win. Braga barely created anything, and while we know from previous experience that Braga are a better side at home, I don’t think that will be enough to stop this Leicester side from winning the game.
We landed a nice bet backing Leicester to beat Braga a few weeks ago, and we can do the same again this evening. Looking at the Braga xG numbers, they don’t create a lot of chances. They were very lucky to win 3-2 against Benfica after losing to Leicester and with Leicester creating chances and scoring goals for fun – they can get back to winning ways here after the defeat to Liverpool. 2.2 is well worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Leicester to beat Braga at 2.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBraLei
SPARTA PRAGUE V CELTIC
5.55pm Celtic find themselves in a very difficult situation in Group H after losing 4-1 to Sparta Prague before the International break. On paper, you would have said that Celtic had a great chance of winning at home against Sparta Prague and would struggle here but with that 4-1 loss it has really put them in a terrible position. It’s a pretty open Group, and they would have been right in the mix if they had won but alas here we are. It’s fair to say that Celtic haven’t been at their best this season, they might have two games in hand but they already 11 points behind Rangers in Scotland.
We have a pretty open market here, with Sparta Prague slightly favourites but you wouldn’t be surprised if that changed (and even changed back!) before kick-off. I’d expect a very close game here, and while it’s not a game to go mad on so I’m keeping my stakes to a minimum I really feel Sparta Prague are the value here at 2.68. I’d much rather back them at those odds than Celtic given their form this season. I know there is a gulf in class between the sides, but Celtic haven’t been themselves this season and it seems the ideal time to go against them.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Sparta Prague to beat Celtic at 2.68 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSpaCel
TOTTENHAM V LUDOGORETS
8pm Spurs are the shortest price of any side in the Europa League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! They currently trade 1.12 at the time of writing. We will likely see a host of changes from Jose Mourinho, although it’s very important that they get the job done here after a setback in the Group when losing to Royal Antwerp. Jose Mourinho caused a bit of drama in the press afterwards when having a go at his players, but for the time being the dressing room looks fully behind him. They were superb against Man City at the weekend.
Spurs absolutely dominated Ludogorets away from home. They scored three times, but they created a lot of chances and could have easily scored more. They finished the game with an xG of 4.12. You don’t need me to tell you Ludogorets play their football at a much lower level than Spurs and they are the Group whipping boys. This should be a smooth win for Spurs and I like Any Other Home Win at 2.3 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.3 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotLud
RANGERS V BENFICA
8pm We finish the evening with Rangers taking on Benfica is a massive game in Group D. Rangers would have taken a draw away to Benfica and now if they can win their home fixture they will put themselves in an excellent position to win the Group. Both sides are level on seven points, and they both look much better than Lech Poznan and Standard Liege. Obviously we had an incredible game between the two when it finishes 3-3, but Rangers impressed. They have been excellent this season, and will surely fancy their chances of winning here.
I think they are very much worth backing at 2.14. Indeed, they look like one of the best bets of the evening – along with Leicester to beat Braga. It’s hard to compare the domestic leagues, but Rangers are well clear at the top in Scotland and beat Celtic in the Old Firm Derby too. They shown enough away from home against Benfica to suggest they can win here and I feel they should be closer to 2.0 rather than 2.14.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Rangers to beat Benfica at 2.14 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRanBen
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