THE STRIKER: previews Tuesday’s Carabao Cup Quarter Finals matches between BRENTFORD v NEWCASTLE and v WOLVES and CHELSEA v WEST HAM both with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BRENTFORD V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm It’s been a hectic time for football clubs recently and the fixtures just keeping coming. We head into the days before Christmas with the Carabao Cup Quarter Finals and we start with Brentford v Newcastle. I must say I find these type of fixtures fascinating, and even more so looking at the odds on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. The Championship side are favourites with home advantage against a mid-table Premier League side. Are those odds correct? Long-term readers of my column will know I’m not a fan of Newcastle; however to their credit they haven’t been as bad this season. The xG tables still puts them lower than their current standing, but they have played OK.
Brentford are a solid Championship side who look set for a place in the Playoffs again. They are sitting in fourth after 20 games, eight points behind the leaders Norwich and only three points behind second placed Bournemouth. They lost out in the Playoff Final last season and they should prove a very tough test for Newcastle. Personally from a betting point of view I can’t have them as short as 2.42. I would have a much more open market with both sides trading between 2.7 and 2.8 – so from a value point of view I have to lay Brentford at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Brentford to beat Newcastle at 2.42 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBreNew
MATCH STATS
- The last meeting between Brentford and Newcastle was in the 2016/17 season in the Championship, with the Magpies winning both games that season.
- The only previous League Cup encounter between Brentford and Newcastle was in September 2001 at St James’ Park, with Newcastle winning 4-1 in extra-time and Craig Bellamy scoring a hat-trick during the extra-time period.
- This is Brentford’s first ever League Cup quarter-final in their 153rd match in the competition, which is the most matches played before playing in their first ever quarter-final match in the competition’s history. The previous most was Bournemouth, whose first quarter-final was in their 147th game in the competition.
- Newcastle United have been eliminated in seven of their eight League Cup quarter-finals, progressing just once back in the 1975/76 season versus Notts County. Among the 30 teams to have competed in more than five League Cup quarter-finals, Newcastle have been eliminated in the highest percentage of those (7/8, 87.5%).
- Brentford striker Marcus Forss has scored four goals in six starts in the League Cup, scoring with 44% of his shots in the competition so far (4/9).
- Newcastle United could become the first top-flight club to eliminate non-top-flight opposition in the second, third & fourth rounds and the quarter-final of the League Cup since Norwich City in 1984/85, who went on to win the competition with current Magpies boss Steve Bruce playing in every League Cup match for the Canaries that season.
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm Since Arteta took over at Arsenal, he has more wins in Cup football than the Premier League! That’s quite a remarkable stat really. He’s won 14 of 17 Cup games and only 13 of 34 Premier League games. Arsenal managed to beat Man City in the FA Cup semi-final last season but they had two goals from Aubameyang and they will be without him tonight as he’s out injured. It’s fair to say it’s been a very tough run for Arteta and although the boards are all about “giving managers time” these days; they just say that, they don’t actually do it. Just how bad can the situation get before Arteta is gone? Surely Arsenal can’t get into a relegation battle!
It’s hard to have any confidence in Arsenal at the moment. They were playing bad football at the start of the season and getting lucky with results – now they are playing average football and losing. They are losing close games and that’s a sign of no confidence and no leadership or backbone – classic Arsenal really. Losing Aubameyang is a big blow for this fixture, and while Man City haven’t been at their brilliant best this season they should have more than enough to beat this Arsenal side. The 1.63 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City to beat Arsenal at 1.63 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQArlMnc
MATCH STATS
- Arsenal and Manchester City last met in the League Cup in the 2018 final, with City winning 3-0. The Gunners have lost their last three League Cup matches against City, also losing in the quarter-finals in both 2009/10 and 2011/12.
- Manchester City have won their last three away matches against Arsenal, all in the Premier League. City are the only team to win three consecutive away games against the Gunners at the Emirates, while the last team to win four consecutive away matches against Arsenal were Chelsea between 1960 and 1965 (six in a row).
- Arsenal have been eliminated from six of their last eight League Cup quarter-finals, reaching the semi-final in 2010/11 and 2017/18 in this run. This is the Gunners’ 29th appearance at this stage, more than any other club.
- Manchester City have progressed from/won the final in each of their last 17 League Cup ties and haven’t lost a League Cup match in London since December 2003 (1-3 vs Spurs), winning six and drawing two since, winning on penalties in the two draws.
- Since 2006/07, only Chelsea at Stamford Bridge (20) have won more League Cup matches at one venue than Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium (19), with the Gunners winning seven of their last eight matches there (L1).
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been directly involved in 17 goals in 25 appearances in the League Cup (10 goals, 7 assists) and has found the net in each of his last two matches at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal, both Premier League encounters.
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