THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Wednesday between MANCHESTER CITY v BRIGHTON and TOTTENHAM v FULHAM with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
MANCHESTER CITY V BRIGHTON
6pm It’s been a very different season this year but I have to say I am loving the non-stop football. It feels like we have a Premier League, Champions League or Cup fixture almost daily – what’s not to love! We start another evening of Premier League action with Man City hosting Brighton in what should be a straightforward home win. The markets agree, with City trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. To be honest, it’s hard to see anything but an easy City win here. Brighton have been poor lately, and you have to go back to November to find a winning fixture, and even then that was lucky against Aston Villa based on xG figures.
So, once again Brighton find themselves in a relegation battle. They are perhaps lucky that Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham look so average but there isn’t much between themselves and Fulham for that 18th spot. If you’re a fan of xG figures, you’ll know that Man City are coming. Their figures have improved in recent weeks and it now looks like they will be right at the top of the Premier League soon. They are back creating a nice volume of chances, and that can only mean goals and wins. I feel they will cover the handicap this evening, and the 2.32 -2.5 goals is worth backing. I know it’s tempting to go for the 1.5 goal handicap, but City are in form and the 2.32 is appealing.
The Striker Says:
One point win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Brighton at 2.32 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcibha
MATCH STATS
- Manchester City have won all six of their Premier League matches against Brighton, scoring 20 goals and conceding just twice.
- Brighton have never won an away league game against Man City in 10 previous attempts (D2 L8), losing their last six visits in a row between 1983 and 2019.
- Brighton have led for just 83 seconds in their six Premier League meetings with Manchester City – Glenn Murray gave the Seagulls the lead in May 2019 before Sergio Agüero equalised, with City going on to win 4-1 to clinch the title.
- Since shipping five goals against Leicester in a 5-2 defeat in September, Man City have conceded just seven goals in 13 Premier League games, four fewer than any other side since the start of October.
- Brighton have conceded the fifth highest number of goals in the Premier League this season (28), but have the sixth lowest expected goals against figure so far (18.6), meaning they’ve conceded around nine goals more than would normally be expected based on the quality of chances they’ve faced.
- Brighton have won just one of their last 15 league games (D8 L6), and are winless in eight since a 2-1 victory at Aston Villa in November. Only Sheffield United (20) are on a current longer winless run in the Premier League than the Seagulls.
- Sergio Agüero has scored in all four of his Premier League appearances against Brighton, netting five goals including a brace in Man City’s 4-0 home win over the Seagulls last season.
- Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has faced Manchester City more often without scoring than he has versus any other side in his Premier League career, failing to find the net in any of his 13 appearances against them with four different clubs (Sunderland 2, Man Utd 6, Arsenal 4, Watford 1).
- Brighton manager Graham Potter has a win ratio of just 20% in the Premier League (11 wins in 55 games), the sixth-lowest of any manager to take charge of at least 50 games and third-lowest among Englishmen, ahead only of Phil Brown (19.4%) and Dave Bassett (19.7%).
- Since the start of 2016-17, Kevin De Bruyne has both scored and assisted in 14 different Premier League games, more than any other Man City player in that time. Only Lionel Messi (29) has scored and assisted in more top-flight matches under Pep Guardiola in his managerial career.
TOTTENHAM V FULHAM
8.15pm It’s fair to say we weren’t expecting this fixture tonight! Spurs were due to travel to take on Aston Villa but due to an outbreak of Covid19 in their training ground that fixture was postponed and replace by this fixture, which was postponed over Christmas with an outbreak of Covid19 at Fulham. Credit to the FA for arranging this, it helps having no fans to do these things at the last minute, and it’s great for us watching on TV! Because of this fixture, Fulham will now play Chelsea on Saturday instead of Friday. This is a big fixture for Fulham, despite them not fully expecting an any points – with Brighton playing Man City tonight they have a chance to gain some ground. However, clearly that’s easier said than done having to play Spurs!
Spurs have had a good time over the last week or so in Cup football, getting to the Carabao Cup Final with a 2-0 win over Brentford and then a 5-0 win over Marine with plenty of changes to the starting XI. They were impressive prior to this when blowing away Leeds 3-0, and that was a nice bounce back after some poor results. I feel the 1.42 is about right on Spurs tonight and offers little value – the bet I like is under 2.5 goals at 2.28. I’d have this market 2.0 the pair as Fulham have kept games tight recently. I can see a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Spurs, but I don’t see a lot of goals and unders looks nice value at the odds.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 w on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotflm
MATCH STATS
- Tottenham have won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games against Fulham, losing the other 0-1 at White Hart Lane in March 2013.
- Since a 2-1 home win in November 2008, Fulham haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Tottenham (W1 D2 L10), netting seven goals in total in this run.
- Tottenham are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League London derbies (W3 D4) since losing 1-2 at Chelsea in February.
- Fulham have lost their last 13 Premier League London derbies, an all-time record in the top-flight. The Cottagers also have the lowest win rate in such fixtures in the Premier League (19% – won 25/131).
- Tottenham have won each of their last 10 home Premier League games played on Wednesdays, scoring 24 goals and conceding just three. Their last such defeat was against Leicester in January 2016 (0-1).
- Fulham are winless in their last 14 Premier League away games played on a Wednesday (D3 L11) since a 1-0 win at Derby in January 2002. The Cottagers have failed to score in each of their last five such games.
- Fulham have drawn each of their last four Premier League games, as many draws as they’d had in their previous 43 top-flight matches. The Cottagers last had a longer run of consecutive league draws between December 2006-January 2007 (6).
- Fulham have earned four points from their last three Premier League away games (W1 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 13 on the road in the competition (W1 D1 L11).
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane is the second highest goalscorer in London derbies in Premier League history (35), with only Thierry Henry netting more (43).
- Fulham’s Bobby Reid has scored six goals in 17 games in all competitions this season, as many as he netted in 47 appearances last term. Only in 2017-18 at Bristol City (21) has he scored more in a single season in English football.
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