ARE YOU PRICE WISE? THEN DON’T MISS THE SATURDAY JACKPOT KING: It’s jackpot day again tomorrow, Daqman having done the hat-trick with big value wins for three Saturdays in a row and with 158 points profit since December 3.
14-1, 9-1, 7-1 AND 13-2: On February 4, he named The Wee Chief (WON 7-1), following up the next Saturday with Stormy Weather (WON 13-2) and six days ago slamming in Bourne (WON 14-1) and Massini’s Maguire (WON 9-1). Check out the Daqman Library, third ‘button’ down when you cursor on the name.
1.50 Sandown: Four-year-olds rarely race in this – two seconds from three runners in its entire history – but five turn out today.
Horses aged six and seven dominate (seven wins out of eight), usually carrying 10st 9lb or less (four out of five). No outright favourite has scored since 2002: last three winners 25-1, 14-1 and 12-1.
Trainers in form are Jonjo O’Neill (My Mate Vinnie), John Ferguson (Memorabilia) and Brian Ellison (Mahfal). Philip Hobbs (1-36) and Paul Nicholls (1-34) are in the doldrums.
Leading conditionals are David Bass (27), Tom Cannon and Jack Quinlan (25 each), Brendan Powell (23) and Richard Killoran (22).
Malanos, Marchand d’Argent, Rasam Aldaar and Unex Picasso are the only runners to have already won open handicaps at this class-4 level.
2.25 Sandown: A nine-year-old hasn’t won this since 2002 and both Song Sung Blue and Johnny Mullen have scored only on very soft ground, and around two years ago at that.
Johnny Mullen’s form on good to soft, or better ground is: 4300PP30. Song Sung Blue’s is: 242P30. He has raced only once since the Grand National meeting of 2010.
War Party has never won off so high a mark as today’s, his stable is out of form and he finished behind Lord Singer at Taunton at the end of January.
Lord Singer pulled up when Wester Ross was a surprise second at 22-1 (winner since in slow time at Leicester) but there’s probably not much between them, since Lord Singer was a much shorter price that day.
At 7.2 on Betdaq this morning (‘true odds’ 5-1), Novikov, from a stable in hot form, and back to fences after a run on the Flat a fortnight ago, is worth a pound. Once a useful novice with two wins on a sound surface.
3.00 Sandown: Nicky Henderson, averaging slightly better than a winner a day (16 in a fortnight), could steal a novice double with Top Of The Range in this and Bellvano in the next.
And he has a similar double chance at Warwick with Thanks For Coming (3.10 novices hurdle) and One Lucky Lady (4.20 juvenile hurdle). Let’s have a look at his prospects.
At Warwick, One Lucky Lady is being backed like a certainty but Thanks For Coming has been turned over at the head of the market by Tarn Hows.
In this 3.0 race at Sandown, Claret Cloak and Keep Kicking seemed good in bumpers but their first hurdles failed to translate that to obstacles, whereas Avoca Promise has done reasonably well when you consider that the Oscar gelding has needed a right-handed track and better ground.
He gets both today but it’s hard to see past Top Of The Range, winner of his maiden with his head in his chest and dropping back from Graded company.
His hurdles form (winner over 2m 4f) and his breeding (Presenting out of a Good Thyne mare) would suggest that today’s 2m and a bit is plenty short enough but he won a bumper convincingly.
3.35 Sandown: Bellvano is playing second string in the novice-chase betting to Toubab, even though Paul Nicholls couldn’t win the Ditcheat-pond duck-race right now.
Bellvano has progressed well enough and has won two chases, where Toubab has a second and a fall (going well in a class-2 open chase).
Under the conditions of the race, he has 3lb with which to make up threeparts of a length on Lancetto, but their one-two was at Cheltenham and was on firm ground and may misrepresent either horse.
At 7.4 this morning, Falcon Island, who was in his element on a right-handed track at Wincanton, brings a lot of experience to this race and, though by Turtle Island, has won on all types of ground.
4.10 Sandown: Gary Moore likes to win this (gambles were landed in 2004 and 2006) but Heathcote needs rain and rejuvenation pills at the age of 10.
Five-year-olds dominate the result (four out of five) and Magic Prospect scored well at Taunton after his wind operation. He leads the market as I write but a favourite hasn’t won this century.
Another five-year-old, Sentimentaljourney, has McCoy and first-time visors to restore his interest but it’s a very tricky contest of average animals.
The handicapper has decided that Henry Hook has ‘gone’ but he’s got his ground and track today (all wins right-handed) and has been dropped 9lb since December: I took a bit of 14.0 in a poor contest.
4.40 Sandown: Best race of the day, class 3, and with half the declared runners having won a chase at the level.
Horses with a double-figure age had to go; and I knocked out top weight and bridesmaid Ballyvesey (10 times in the frame from 14 starts but only one win).
Then I stopped short. What to do when five of what remain are, or could potentially be, front-runners on their records to date: Court By Surprise, Don’t Tell Sailor, Inga Bird, Moleskin and Star Beat.
Moleskin is up 11lb (which brings Reblis close to him) and Don’t Tell Sailor is up 7lb and raised a level from his class-4 Leicester success.
Inga Bird (8.0 at time of writing) appeals to me: the handicapper has found it hard to take his measure, as he wins only narrowly, showing courage and tenacity. He’s up in grade but was only a novice 11 weeks ago, so seems to be progressive.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win NOVIKOV (2.25 Sandown)
BET 6.6pts win (NAP) TARN HOWS (3.10 Warwick)
LAY to win 10pts TOUBAB, and BET 3.1pts win FALCON ISLAND and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) BELLVANO (3.35 Sandown)
BET 1.5pts win and place HENRY HOOK (4.10 Sandown)
BET 2.8pts win INGA BIRD (4.40 Sandown)
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