BULL’S-EYE BETS ON THE OPENING DAY AT YORK: Zinc White (WON 7-4) kept Daqman in the black when the grey went clear at Wetherby yesterday. Today he raises his stakes to the win-50 bull’s-eye level among eight bets on the opening day at York. He leads Pricewise for value 18-8.
ABC GUIDE TO THE MUSIDORA OAKS TRIAL: York today and tomorrow features Daqman’s ABC guides to the last two major trials for the Oaks (Musidora Stakes today) and Derby (Dante tomorrow). Headlines:
HIGH NOON FOR STOUTE OAKS HOPE
CARPENTER COULD NAIL FAVOURITES
GULLIVER ALWAYS TRAVELS AT YORK
MOLATHAM BETDAQ 7.8 IN TRIP TEST
HUDDLETON MAC LOOKS SO WELL IN
HIGH NOON FOR STOUTE OAKS HOPE
⭕ 3.10 York (Musidora Stakes, 1m 2.5f): It’s been 6-4 against the favourite winning in the last decade, but today it’s anyone’s guess who the ‘jolly’ will be!
Teona and Noon Star are very close at the front of the market. Team Gosden, Musidora winners five times in the decade, saddle an outsider today in the hooded Senita. ABC order:
Auria (Andrew Balding): From a family of winners up to a mile; a Group-2 player among them. Went into the notebook when second in an Ascot conditions race (firm) on her seasonal reappearance. Stable has done well with three-year-olds this Spring.
Glenartney (Ed Walker): Related down the dam’s side to King George winner Nathaniel, who took giant steps forward as a three-year-old. He began his second season rated 91 and, in only three races, shot up to 128.
Glenartney was a good winner on heavy (7f) at Newmarket in the autumn; not seen since but doesn’t take a lot of getting ready.
Mystery Angel (George Boughey) Burgeoning HQ stable with 31 winners already this year. Mystery Angel won the Pretty Polly Stakes in the hoofprints of Taghrooda and Talent, Oaks winners in successive years (2013-14).
Noon Star (Sir Michael Stoute) Elegantly bred by Galileo out of Epsom and Curragh Oaks placed Midday who won the Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares. Very laid back winner of her last two races. Richard Kingscote doing well in new job for the stable.
Quiet Assassin (Adrian Paul Keatley) A big filly with not a lot going for her on form or breeding but sure to like the step up in trip.
Senita (John and Thady Gosden) By Frankel; dam a sister to Midday. Redcar winner on soft as a juvenile; too free on her return to action but much straighter at home now.
Snowfall (Aidan O’Brien) By Galileo out of a sister to Found. Curragh winner, well beaten in the Moyglare and the Fillies Mile, but should improve the further she goes. Needs the ground to dry out.
Teona (Roger Varian) Sea The Stars filly with stamina in depth on the dam’s side. Beat nothing well – by nine-lengths – at Newcastle in November. Good reports from work-watchers, and stable has won two Derby trials in the last week.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE OAKS Sportsbook: 6 Teona, 10 Noon Star, 34 Senita, Snowfall.
TODAY: win 2.8 Noon Star, place 41.0 Glenartney
CARPENTER COULD NAIL FAVOURITES
⭕ 1.40 York The extra distance should not bother Ilaraab; nor should the ground; he’s won on the course and takes weight rises in his stride. The others at the front of the market are all of a heap:
My Frankel, who has progressed slowly, would prefer the ground to dry out. He can confirm the Kempton form with Taqareer, who must run Throne Hall close on their revised weights after their one-two at Doncaster.
Getting weight from them all is Mr Carpenter, a horse who stays well but has bags of speed and is 2-2 on his local track at York.
BETDAQ value 5.8 Ilaraab, 14.5 Mr Carpenter
GULLIVER ALWAYS TRAVELS AT YORK
⭕ 2.10 York The ground is fine for Aberama Gold, Bielsa, Gulliver, Hyperfocus, Magical Spirit, Mr Lupton, Roulston Scar
Gulliver (drawn 18) as won two big-field handicaps at York off 100 and 102 (both on soft), beating Magical Spirit and Bielsa in the Coral Sprint in October.
Of the Tim Easterby runners, Staxton has poor recent form on the course: 2034000000. Hyperfocus, too (00200) and he usually needs his reappearance run; Manigordo likes top of the ground; Danzon has a very poor strike rate (1-18 on turf).
Mr Lupton (drawn 15) is a Listed winner here and took a big Curragh prize in the autumn.
I seem to be with the high draw but the pace could come from Aberama Gold (9) and Hyperfocus (6), so I;m keeping stakes low.
BETDAQ value 11.5 Gulliver, 15.5 Mr Lupton
MOLATHAM BETDAQ 7.8 IN TRIP TEST
⭕ 2.40 York Art Power was the new kid on the sprinting block after an easy win at Royal Ascot last June (5f good to soft) and stepped up to Group-3 success at Naas (6f soft).
He could not cope with the real power horses in a trio of Group-1 attempts, best of them his length defeat, fourth, in the British Champions Sprint 96f soft).
And the handicapper thinks he has 5lb to make up on the year-older Oxted, who has already bagged his Group 1 (the July Cup).
But all Oxted’s success has come on a sound surface; his form on soft, good to soft, is 0040, and Art Power wins when fresh, though the yard worries this morning that he might need the run.
Roger Varian is currently 5-9 and intriguing that 2020 Jersey Stakes winner first time out last season, Molatham drops back to this sprint trip.
Molatham is a rear runner and it could be hard work for him to cut through these seasoned speed horses.
Varian wants to know if Molatham can handle this trip, and open doors for himself, as there are so few contests at 7f. All eyes are on the Diamond Jubilee (£396,000 to the winner)!
BETDAQ value 7.8 Molatham
HUDDLETON MAC LOOKS SO WELL IN
⭕ 3.40 York Huddleton Mac could be thrown in off 88. He gave 6lb to The Kodi Kid when winning at Sandown in September; the Kid was a four-lengths scorer next time and was hiked to 84, suggesting by my reckoning that Huddleton Mac was a 92 plus.
On his return after the winter break, Huddleton Mac was pitched into the Greenham (which is five grades above today’s race), ran freely and was unplaced among animals rated up to 113.
BETDAQ value 4.9 Huddleton Mac
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 York (win 50 bull’s-eye bet, win 10)
BET 3.75pts win MR CARPENTER
BET 2pts win ILARAAB
2.10 York (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 4.75pts win GULLIVER
BET 3.5pts win MR LUPTON
2.40 York (win 10, place win 10)
BET 1.5pts win and 5pts place MOLATHAM
3.10 York (win 20, place win 10)
BET 10pts win NOON STAR
BET 0.5pts win and 2pts place GLENARTNEY
3.40 York (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win HUDDLETON MAC
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
