DAQMAN TRIES TO FOLLOW GUINEAS HAT-TRICK WITH DERBY TREBLE: Daqman, who landed a hat-trick of Guineas winners in May, now wants a Derby treble of English (tomorrow), French (Sunday) and Irish in June. Daqman’s Guineas winners were:
WON 16-1 POETIC FLARE 2000 Guineas: bull’s-eye bet for 60 points profit.
WON 10-1 MOTHER EARTH 1,000 Guineas, plus Lays Logic to oppose the favourite, Santa Barbara (7-4); unplaced 5-2.
WON 14-1 EMPRESS JOSEPHINE Irish 1,000 Guineas from BETDAQ 28.0: win and place for 40 points profit.
DAY OF A BIG EPSOM DOUBLE: THE OAKS AND THE CORONATION CUP: But first the Oaks and the launch of the Fortune Cookies in the Coronation Cup. Daqman goes into battle 14 winners up on Pricewise and 251 points clear to level stakes. His top tipping:
DAQMAN 27, PRICEWISE 13
(Daqman +120.36, Pricewise -130.50)
SUPERNAPS 6-8
LAYS LOGIC 8-11
SANTA O’BRIEN WITH AN OAKS 1-2-3
⭕ 4.30 Epsom (The Oaks): 1m 4f; 3-y-o fillies; 14 run; going good
OAKS RESULTS BY STALL: Last 11 years: 15, 7, 10, 3, 9, 2, 4, 9, 3, 3, 5.
RESULTS BY RATING: Last 11 years: 107, 99, 108, 96, 103, 102, 119, 107, 99, 103, 116
PRIZEMONEY WON AND OFFICIAL RATINGS TODAY: 110 Dubai Fountain, £88k; 109 Saffron Beach £122k; 108 Snowfall £55k; 105 Zeyaadah £34k; 100 Teona £14k; 100 Mystery Angel £89k
WINNING TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 7.
WINNING JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori 5, Ryan Moore 2, Seamie Heffernan.
The Ballydoyle belles have it. Aidan O’Brien has already won both English and Irish 1,000 Guineas, and – in Divinely, Santa Barbara and Snowfall – has more than enough clout to take the first Oaks of the season.
Both Snowfall in the Musidora and Sherbet Lemon in the Lingfield Oaks Trial appeared to get the run of their races off slow paces, so they are suspect.
Divinely, fourth at Lingfield, has come through well at home since, and we took 11.5 on BETDAQ but, with the strength of the trials not confirmed, we would normally look to the Guineas for the best clue.
We would also want to have a bet among those who have had just two or three career runs; that ‘s where 70% of recent winners emerged from.
From both the Guineas and this strata of those unexposed is Santa Barbara, who did remarkably well to get fourth at Newmarket in only her second start.
The jockeying up of the Ballydoyle quintet also leads me to this order-in decision:
🏇 1 SANTA BARBARA Should improve past 1,000 runner-up Saffron Beach, who seems destined for a place at best for the third big occasion in a row.
🏇 2 DIVINELY Sister to Arc winner Found had to wait for room in the Lingfield trial and can reverse the form with Sherbet Lemon.
🏇 3 SNOWFALL From the family of Found, went clear in the Musidora and can again hold Teona.
🏇 4 ZEYAADAH A fourth trial, the Cheshire Oaks, was also unsatisfactory in that she did not get a clear run behind Dubai Fountain.
I would be backing Zeyaadah but the one stall puts me off. Six winners in the last eight years have come from gates 2 to 5 but nothing from the ‘coffin box.’
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 3.85 Santa Barbara, 18.5 Divinely, 7.2 Snowfall, 6.4 Zeyaadah
Having taken 11.5 Divinely to win 50 ante-post, we can’t ignore the 18.5 to step us up to 100; the drift is because of the jockey bookings and confidence in Santa Barbara. It’s between the two.
STAR START FOR HANNON YOUNGSTER
⭕ 2.00 Epsom (Woodcote Stakes) Team Hannon do well in this (three wins in the decade) and I’d noted Zoltan Star down for a nursery – the stable speciality at one time – but his form and the nature of this class-2 conditions race suggest he can be marked up.
Third and fourth in his opening second at Windsor have both won since and, now we know about today, we can assume his last run was not the target, although punters made him favourite. Could have been better drawn but that’s covered in the offers.
BETDAQ value 12.5 Zoltan Star
⭕ 2.35 Epsom (Coral handicap) Winners are usually drawn middle to high with the pace to get across early; low numbers tend to get trapped on the rail.
Irish Admiral is the likely lad. He showed a remarkable surge at York but too soon at a trip too far! Now back at a mile, with Tom Marquand doing the steering.
COOKIE’S GET CORONATION DAY..
⭕ 3.10 Epsom (Coral Coronation Cup) Al Aasy may find it tough at the top. I did not plan for our first Fortune Cookie of the season to be such a hot favourite in a Ballydoyle sandwich between established Group-1 performers.
But top-rated Japan’s Ormonde Stakes at Chester a month ago was his first success in seven starts since his Group-1 hat-trick at Ascot, Longchamp and York.
I hope significantly, all four wins were on good to soft, though his supporters will recall how close he went in the 2019 Derby here (good to firm) when Wayne Lordan dropped his whip 100 yards out.
Mogul’s only Group-1 in Europe was the Grand Prix De Paris when he was well clear in the ratings that day.
As I said in my ABC guide, Pyledriver was comfortably beaten by Sir Ron Priestley in the Jockey Club Stakes and both he, and Sir Ron himself, have been docked in the ratings.
So fingers crossed for Al Aasy’s continued surge: he has climbed exactly two stone in the last year; and certainly looks Group 1 now, 11lb higher than when Mogul beat him at Goodwood last July .
JOHNSTON SET FOR A DREAM DOUBLE
⭕ 3.45 Epsom Four and five years olds only win this unless there’s a
poor field and this one has horses 10lb higher than when the last older horse showed them all up.
Mark Johnston, who won this last year, has had a stinking run; but the last few days have seen the yard produce four winners for a 33% strike rate, with the four all coming from (4-8 at 50%) those with SPs of 9-2 or less.
A Frankel related to Oak placed and 1,000 Guineas winner, Dream With Me has progressed 18lb in four runs (3-4) since March and is stablemate of last year’s winner, Sky Defender
Victory Chime is reckoned a big danger but was in receipt of 6lb when beating Sky Defender here at Epsom in April’s City And Suburban.
The grey Blue Cup, hampered in his run, was getting 5lb from Victory Chime that day and is now getting 10lb.
But Blue Cup has always had difficulty settling and doing as he’s told and comes with a wallet-health warning, with connections hoping that a hood makes the difference.
Saved up for this is Strait Of Hormuz, now back to the trip which saw him beat the supposed Stoute good thing, Derevo, at Doncaster in September.
BETDAQ value 6.9 Strait Of Hormuz, 7.8 Dream With Me.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Epsom (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win ZOLTAN STAR (12.5)
2.35 Epsom (win 20 nap)
BET 12pts win IRISH ADMIRAL
3.10 Epsom: Fortune Cookie
BET 10pts win AL AASY
3.45 Epsom (win 30)
BET 5pts win STRAIT OF HORMUZ
BET 4.4pts win DREAM WITH ME
4.30 EPSOM (The Oaks)
Ante-post (win 50) and on the day (win 50, win 30)
BET 4.75pts win DIVINELY
BET 2.75pts win DIVINELY
BET 10.5pts win SANTA BARBARA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
