PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews MANCHESTER UNITED v NOTTINGHAM FOREST and NEWCASTLE v WEST HAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V NOTINGHAM FOREST
12.30pm With the FA Cup taking the full focus on Saturday, we have a busy Super Sunday from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have six games on Sunday, and we kick it off with Manchester United host Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford! News broke this week that United are opening talks with Michael Carrick with a view to taking the managerial role permanently. There doesn’t seem to be any other names mentioned at the moment, and in fairness since taking over as interim manager in January, and the turnaround at Old Trafford has been nothing short of remarkable. I would add something a little negative though – the under-lining numbers were actually stronger under Ruben Amorim but he never got results. They have secured Champions League football for next season, and it will be interesting to see how the squad handles the increased fixtures. You have to say, he hasn’t been put under any pressure yet; everything has gone well so far! That being said, if you took results since he took over, United would top that table which is clearly impressive. United come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.65 with Nottingham Forest 5.6 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing.
United’s average xG created of 1.72 is the second best attacking figure in the Premier League, and most importantly they are now finally taking their chances. Carrick has given the squad so much confidence in fairness. Their average xG conceded of 1.36 is also solidly top six standard in terms of defence – not world-beating, but clearly much improved. Nottingham Forest have to pick themselves up from crashing out of the Europa League at the Semi-Final stage, but they have been finishing the season strongly. They are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games, and they’ve won four of their last six too. They have been through three managers before Vitor Pereira took the reins in February, with Nuno Espirito Santo, Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche all departing during the campaign, but they’ve played reasonably good football (better than their results) all season. Their average xG created of 1.44 is a respectable mid-table attacking figure, while their average xG conceded of 1.48 is also mid-table. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.65 on United here to be honest, but I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because this game screams goals in my opinion. We should have an entertaining game, especially with neither side having a reason to sit back, and Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.65, the same price as the United win.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLMuNo
NEWCASTLE V WEST HAM
5.30pm We finish Sunday with the biggest game of the day as Newcastle host West Ham at St James’ Park. The relegation battle has come down right to the wire, and we’ve had some dramatic swings recently. The wounds from last Sunday’s 1-0 loss to Arsenal are still raw for everyone connected with West Ham. They were so close to getting a point that could have changed the complexion of the relegation battle entirely. Callum Wilson netted a dramatic stoppage-time equaliser – the stadium erupted – only for VAR to intervene and rule the goal out after an agonising check. What about the David Raya save before the Arsenal goal too; it really felt like the game that got away from West Ham. They looked in a poor position then, but Leeds did them a massive favour on Monday night scoring late to draw with Spurs. What it all adds up to is West Ham sitting in the relegation zone, two points behind Spurs. West Ham obviously play Newcastle here and then Leeds at home on the final day, while Spurs are away to Chelsea on Tuesday and then at home to Everton. We should have more drama to come, but you feel West Ham need to win here – especially given Chelsea will have played the FA Cup Final before the Spurs game.
Newcastle come into the game as the favourites at 2.22 with West Ham 3.35 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. When you look at the underlying numbers, it’s hard to paint a flattering picture of West Ham’s season. Their average xG created of 1.20 is the third worst attacking figure in the Premier League, but obviously when things are do-or-die, old performance levels sometimes go out the window. Their average xG conceded of 1.73 is the second worst defensive figure though, which has clearly been a big issue. Newcastle have had an underwhelming season by their own recent standards. Their average xG created of 1.55 is the seventh best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.41 is a solid enough defensive figure. They are not in Europe, they have little to play for, and they should be higher in the table. The 2.18 feels a little short here considering they have struggled to get over the line in so many games this season, and obviously West Ham are fighting for their lives. West Ham will throw absolutely everything at this – the desperation level from their end will be maximum, and from a value point of view I’m happy to have a small lay on Newcastle at 2.22.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Newcastle to beat West Ham at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNeWh
