SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League action which starts and ends with two crackers. MAN CITY v ARSENAL at 12.30pm and then LIVERPOOL v CHELSEA at 5.30pm! All games include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL
12.30pm We have a very busy weekend in the Premier League as we have the first International Break of the season coming up next week. More fixtures on Saturday is a good thing however as all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start the day with Man City hosting Arsenal with the pressure firmly on Mikel Arteta after another loss to Chelsea last weekend. As I said last week, this was always likely to happen when they lost their opening fixture to Brentford – it’s difficult to see this current Arsenal side getting a result against Chelsea or Man City – so once they lost to Brentford they were always likely to be on zero points after three games. The fans boo’d the players off the pitch on Sunday, and you can really sense the anger.
The problem for Arsenal is, this issue just isn’t going away. The fans chased Arsene Wenger out for not winning the league but he always got Champions League football and now it will be many, many years before Arsenal are back in the Top Four. What can they do now? Chase another manager out so soon – where does that leave them? After a surprising loss to Spurs on the opening weekend, City bounced back to winning ways with a 5-0 win over Norwich. As I noted last weekend, they created an xG of 2.41 against Spurs and didn’t deserve to lose – a similar performance would likely see them hammer Arsenal. I can see another easy home win for City here with Arsenal all over the place, especially at the back against Chelsea, and City can cover the 1.5 goal handicap here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Arsenal at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMciars
MATCH STATS
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 11 league games against Arsenal (W9 D2) since a 2-1 defeat at the Emirates in December 2015. They’ve taken 28 of a possible 30 points against the Gunners under Pep Guardiola (W9 D1).
● Arsenal have lost each of their last eight Premier League meetings with Manchester City, their joint-longest run of consecutive defeats against a specific opponent in their league history (also 8 vs Leeds between 1973-1976).
● Man City have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven league meetings with Arsenal, including the last four in a row since a 3-1 home win in February 2019.
● Arsenal have lost their last six games against reigning Premier League champions, conceding exactly three goals in each of the last five. The Gunners have won just one of their last 17 away league games against reigning champions (D6 L10), with that victory coming at Manchester City in January 2015 (2-0).
● Manchester City have won both of their last two Premier League home games by a 5-0 scoreline. In Premier League history, only Man City themselves (October 2017) and Chelsea (August 2010) have won three consecutive home games by 5+ goals before.
● Arsenal have lost their opening two league games for the second time in the last four seasons, having done so in just one of their previous 63 campaigns before this. In their league history, the Gunners have only lost each of their first three league games on four occasions – 1894-95 (second tier), 1921-22, 1923-24 and 1954-55 (all top-flight).
● Arsenal have failed to score in their first three league games in just two of their previous 117 seasons, doing so in 1904-05 and 1953-54. However, they picked up at least one point in their opening three games in both of those campaigns.
● Arsenal have had 28 shots in their two Premier League games this season, but have an expected goals total of just 1.54. Their xG-per-shot of just 0.06 is the joint-lowest in the division so far this season.
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in seven goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Arsenal (5 goals, 2 assists), netting in each of his last four against the Gunners including the only goal in both meetings last term.
● Man City’s Rúben Dias (72) and Jack Grealish (60) have made more ball carries than any other players in the Premier League so far this season, while Grealish has carried the ball further than anyone else so far (739 metres).
ASTON VILLA V BRENTFORD
3pm Next we start a busy afternoon with plenty of 3pm games in the Premier League! This is a very interesting game to start too, Brentford have started with a nice win over Arsenal and a pretty even 0-0 against Crystal Palace last weekend. Brentford played the better football against Crystal Palace last weekend, and they have adjusted well to the Premier League in my view – it’s very early days, but the signs are very positive. As I noted last weekend, I was very interested to see what Aston Villa did against Newcastle. They played well for a 2-0 win, and that was very positive for them considering they put in some poor performances without Jack Grealish last season and now obviously he’s gone so they will have to make the adjustment.
This is a fascinating market to be honest with Aston Villa just a shade of odds against at 2.04 – with 0% Commission that’s the best price you’ll see around on Villa. Brentford have impressed me in their opening games however, and I feel there is value in laying Villa here at 2.04. They were average against Watford in their opening games, and we know Newcastle aren’t a reliable side in recent years – I feel Brentford will be a great test for them. Let’s not forget they have yet to concede a goal yet too so Villa will have their work cut out to break down this solid Brentford side. I expect a very close game here, and Villa look a good value lay at 2.04.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAstbre
MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have never lost a top-flight match against Brentford (W5 D1), with this the first such meeting between the sides since February 1947 (Brentford 0-2 Aston Villa).
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last six league meetings with Aston Villa (W3 D3, all in the Championship between 2016-2019). However, all three games at Villa Park in that run finished level, with the Bees never winning away against the Villans in all competitions (D5 L2).
● Aston Villa haven’t lost their first Premier League meeting with an opponent since August 2008, going down 3-2 at Stoke. The Villans have won five and drawn two of their seven such games since.
● Aston Villa have scored two goals in each of their last five Premier League games. They last scored 2+ goals in more consecutive top-flight matches in October/November 1980 (7), in their last title winning campaign.
● Brentford are yet to concede a goal in the Premier League this season, with only two newly promoted sides keeping clean sheets in their first three games of a season: Charlton Athletic in 1998-99 and Huddersfield Town in 2017-18.
● Aston Villa have scored four goals from just four shots on target in the Premier League this season, the only side with a 100% such record in the competition so far.
● Aston Villa’s Emiliano Buendía has been involved in a goal in all three of his league appearances against Brentford (2 goals, 1 assist), all with Norwich between 2018 and 2021. He was involved in 100% of the goals the Canaries scored against the Bees in games he played against them.
● Danny Ings has scored in his first two Premier League matches for Aston Villa, finding the net against Watford and Newcastle. The last Villa player to score in their first three league matches of a season was Dalian Atkinson in 1992-93.
● Since the start of last season, only Ederson (20) and Édouard Mendy (18) have kept more Premier League clean sheets among goalkeepers than Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martínez (16). The Argentine has kept a clean sheet in 40% of his Premier League appearances for the Villans (16/40), the best rate of any keeper with more than 10 starts for the club in the competition.
● Aston Villa manager Dean Smith took charge of Brentford for 143 games between 2015 and 2018 – he lost his only previous meeting with the Bees after leaving them, going down 1-0 at Griffin Park in February 2019 in the Championship.
BRIGHTON V EVERTON
3pm We have another fascinating market here as Brighton host Everton. Both sides have started their season very positively – especially Brighton who have recorded two wins from two games! Perhaps this is the season they can finally get their results to be in line with their performances on xG – don’t forget the xG table had them finishing with European football last season! They have been very consistent so far, they recorded an xG of 1.76 against Burnley and 1.75 against Watford. The only slight worry being they conceded an xG of 1.99 away to Burnley, but they were very solid at home to Watford conceding an xG of just 0.47. Everton will have to work very hard to beat this Brighton side, that’s for sure.
Everton have put in two very good performances themselves though, and although I expected an open market between these two – I’d have Everton a little shorter. They created an xG of 2.19 against Southampton and then 1.86 away to Leeds in a game where they were a little unlucky not to win. They kept Leeds at bay for most of the game – which is impressive given Leeds are generally excellent going forward. I expect a very close game here, but it’s all about the odds for me. Everton are the value in my opinion at 3.3. Brighton are too short at 2.4 and Everton too big – I would have the prices closer together in what should be a pretty even game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Everton to beat Brighton at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrieve
MATCH STATS
● The home side has never lost in eight Premier League meetings between Brighton and Everton (W6 D2), with Brighton winning two and drawing two against the Toffees at the Amex Stadium.
● Everton are winless in their last four away games against Brighton in all competitions (D2 L2) since a 2-1 win in April 1983.
● Brighton have started the 2021-22 season with two wins from two games – they’ve won their first three league games in just three of their previous 94 seasons in the Football League, doing so in 1951-52, 1953-54 and 2011-12.
● Albeit a small sample size, Brighton’s shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season is 14.8% (4 goals from 27 attempts), while last season it was their lowest in a single campaign in the competition at just 8.2%.
● Everton have conceded seven goals in their last two Premier League away games, as many as they had shipped in their previous 12 on the road in the competition.
● Brighton have won three of their last four Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 14 in the competition (W3 D5 L6). The Seagulls are looking to secure three consecutive Premier League victories for just the second time, previously doing so in October 2018.
● Only Manchester City (46) have had more open play sequences of 10+ passes in the Premier League this season than Brighton (39).
● Only Liverpool (17) and West Ham (16) have had more shots on target than Everton (14) in the opening two Premier League games so far this season. The Toffees are averaging seven shots on target per game so far this term, compared to 3.9 in 2020-21.
● Neal Maupay has scored in both of Brighton’s Premier League games this season, having scored in just two of his previous 18 league appearances. He could become the first player to score in each of the Seagulls’ first three league games in a single campaign since Nicky Forster in 2008-09.
● Since joining Everton in 2018, Richarlison has been involved in more Premier League goals for the Toffees than any other player (42 – 34 goals, 8 assists). In their last game against Leeds, no Everton player had more shots (5) or created more chances (3) than the Brazilian.
NEWCASTLE V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm You get the feeling this is an important game for both sides with the first International Break coming up. Newcastle are one of five sides to lose their opening two games, and they sit in the bottom three on goal difference. Southampton were lucky to get a draw against Manchester United last time out, and their two performances haven’t been that good. Both sides need a good result to boost their confidence – things can snowball quickly when you start the season poorly! As you would expect, this is another open market – we have a handful of these markets at 3pm again this week! I don’t expect Newcastle to go down this season, but you have to say they will be in the mix. Their first two performances are a little worrying too if you’re a Newcastle fan.
Southampton have also been outplayed in their opening two games, but those games came against Everton and Manchester United. More acceptable than getting outplayed by West Ham and Aston Villa – although West Ham have been a top class side for a while now. Again, I have a very similar opinion here as I did on the game above – we have an open market, I expect a very close game but the value is with Southampton at 2.76 in my opinion. Based on what I have saw from Newcastle’s opening two games they are worth taking on. These is a game for small stakes though because neither side are reliable – but Southampton are the value.
The Striker Says:
One point win Southampton to beat Newcastle at 2.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNewsou
MATCH STATS
● Newcastle have lost just one of their last 16 home Premier League games against Southampton (W12 D3), going down 2-1 in January 2015. The Magpies have won their last four home Premier League matches against Saints.
● Southampton have lost four of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle, winning the other 2-0 at St Mary’s in November 2020.
● Newcastle have won 14 Premier League home games against Southampton – against no side have they won more at St James’ Park in the competition.
● Newcastle have lost both of their opening two league games in four of the last six seasons, but haven’t lost each of their first three to a league campaign since 1999-00 under Ruud Gullit. Their third league game of that campaign was also against Southampton.
● Newcastle have lost three of their last four home league games (W1), as many as in their previous 11 at St James’ Park (W3 D5 L3). The Magpies have kept just two clean sheets in their last 24 home league games, doing against Liverpool in December 2020 (0-0) and Sheffield United in May (1-0).
● Since Ralph Hasenhüttl took charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped 62 points from winning positions in the Premier League, at least 12 more than any other side in that time. Indeed, Saints have opened the scoring in both of their league matches this season, but failed to win either (D1 L1).
● Southampton have lost 11 of their last 12 Premier League away games (W1), including each of the last six in a row. They last lost seven consecutive away league games between November 2004 and February 2005, in the season they were relegated from the Premier League.
● Southampton’s Theo Walcott has been involved in more Premier League goals against Newcastle than he has any other side in the competition (11 – 5 goals, 6 assists). Five of these goal involvements came in a single game back in December 2012 (3 goals, 2 assists).
● Only Trent Alexander-Arnold (10) has created more chances in the opening two Premier League games this season than Newcastle’s Matt Ritchie (9). He created four chances against West Ham and five against Aston Villa, while the last Newcastle player to create 4+ chances in three consecutive Premier League games was Moussa Sissoko in October 2015.
● Southampton striker Adam Armstrong – who made 15 top-flight appearances for Newcastle between March 2014 and May 2015 – scored in his first away Premier League appearance for Saints in their 3-1 defeat at Everton. However, he has ended on the losing side in all nine of his away Premier League appearances, with only Josip Drmic (11) and Junior Lewis (12) playing in more without avoiding defeat.
NORWICH V LEICESTER
3pm The tough start to the season continues for Norwich as they face Leicester. They are one of the sides who will welcome the International Break having had to start their season against Liverpool and then Manchester City! They actually played OK against Liverpool and finished the game with an xG of 1.81 – they didn’t manage to take their chances, but the fact they created that much is positive. Going to Man City is always going to be tough and anything bar an easy City win would have been a shock. This is a big game for the home side, as morale can quickly drop after such a bad start – but they have to remember they have faced sides in the Top Six and easier games will come down the road. From a Leicester point of view, they will be viewing this game as a great chance to get three points.
I think saying “things didn’t go to plan” for Leicester against West Ham on Monday night is a bit of an understatement! West Ham were excellent, but the game was basically over when Leicester got a man sent off after 40 minutes when already a goal down. It just wasn’t their night, however I feel that loss was coming and that’s why I recommended the West Ham back. Even though Leicester beat Wolves on the opening weekend – they didn’t deserve to looking at the xG figures and I have to say they have started the season in poor form. Things can change very quickly, especially given they have a great chance to winning here but I would have them closer to evens than 1.85. I’m happy to have a small bet on the draw at 3.7. Leicester have to start performing and creating more chances – if they don’t then Norwich can get a result here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorlei
MATCH STATS
● Norwich have lost just one of their last seven home league meetings with Leicester (W4 D2), going down 2-1 in October 2015. Norwich’s final league win in the 2019-20 campaign was against the Foxes (1-0).
● Leicester have won five of their last six away league games against promoted sides, with the only exception in that run being a 1-0 loss at Norwich in February 2020.
● Norwich City have lost their last 12 Premier League matches, scoring just once and conceding 32 goals across these defeats. In top-flight history, only Sunderland (20 in a row between 2003 and 2005) and Manchester United (14 in 1930) have had longer losing runs than the Canaries.
● Norwich are only the fourth side in top-flight history to lose their first two matches of a season without scoring while conceding 8+ goals – Bury in 1895-96, Leicester City in 2001-02 and Wigan Athletic in 2010-11 also did so, though only Leicester went on to be relegated in those seasons.
● Leicester have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W2), as many as they had in their previous 21 in the competition (W11 D6). However, the Foxes have won their last five meetings with sides in the relegation zone by an aggregate score of 13-1.
● Leicester have lost their last two Premier League away games, last losing more consecutively on the road between April/August 2018 under Claude Puel (4).
● Norwich haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 20 Premier League games, since a 2-2 draw with Tottenham in December 2019. In Premier League history, only three clubs have had longer runs without scoring more than once – Sunderland between 2002 and 2005 (25), Huddersfield in 2018 (22) and Hull City in 2009 (21).
● Leicester have conceded 4+ goals in three of their last six Premier League matches, as many times as they had in their previous 87 games in the competition.
● After scoring six goals in his first five Premier League games in 2019-20 (from 17 shots), Norwich’s Teemu Pukki has scored just five further goals in his last 33 appearances in the competition (64 shots).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy hasn’t scored in any of his last 11 Premier League away games, since netting against Spurs in December 2020. It’s his longest run without a goal on the road since his first 12 away appearances in the competition between September 2014 and March 2015.
WEST HAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm West Ham have started this season on fire and it seems, at the moment anyway, they might actually hold onto their Top Six spot! Who would have thought when they employed David Moyes they could produce this type of football. I’m sure it’s a wonderful feeling for David Moyes as he was a bit of a laughing stock after the failure at Manchester United. West Ham seem like the ideal club for him, just like Everton were to be honest, no major pressure to win anything and something like European football is a big achievement. This level suits him. After two wins from two games, West Ham have scored eight goals and created some excellent xG figures. They benefited from Leicester having a man sent off on Monday night, but they took full advantage with a 4-1 win – it was one way traffic.
West Ham were one of my favourite sides to back last season as they offered a lot of value in the markets. They are a cracking bet at 1.6 here to beat a very average Crystal Palace side. Crystal Palace are one of my picks to go down this season, I feel without Roy Hodgson their performances will drop and they have had a lot of trouble scoring over the last few years. I haven’t seen anything to change my mind this season too – I know they can’t be expected to beat Chelsea, but they could only create an xG of 0.62 at home to Brentford. West Ham will create more chances than Palace here and that will win them at the game, at 1.6 they are my most confident bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points win West Ham to beat Crystal Palace at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWhucry
MATCH STATS
● West Ham won 3-2 in their last Premier League meeting with Crystal Palace – only once before have they won consecutive matches against the Eagles in the competition, winning both games in the 2016-17 campaign.
● After losing their first two Premier League away games against West Ham, Crystal Palace have lost just two of their subsequent eight visits to the Hammers in the competition (W3 D3).
● Both teams have scored in each of the last eight Premier League meetings between West Ham and Crystal Palace. Only against Chelsea (9) have West Ham had a longer run of both scoring and conceding against an opponent in the competition, while it’s the Eagles’ joint-longest such run (also 8 vs Liverpool).
● Crystal Palace are winless in their last 10 Premier League London derby matches (D5 L5), scoring just seven goals and conceding 19 in these matches.
● West Ham are looking to win each of their opening three games to a league campaign for the third time in their history, previously doing so in the 1958-59 and 1983-84 top-flight.
● West Ham have the highest expected goals figure of any Premier League side after two games this season (5.3), while their eight goals scored is their most after two games of a top-flight campaign since 1930-31 (9).
● Crystal Palace are yet to score under manager Patrick Vieira – the last permanent manager who saw his side fail to score in his first three Premier League games in charge was also at Crystal Palace, with Frank De Boer getting the sack after just four games (all goalless) at the start of 2017-18.
● Last time out against Leicester, Michail Antonio became West Ham’s all-time highest goalscorer in the Premier League, netting his 48th and 49th goals for the Hammers in the competition. The last player to reach 50 top-flight goals for the Hammers was Tony Cottee, who reached the milestone in the 1985-86 campaign.
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has been involved in 10 goals in his last nine Premier League appearances (6 goals, 4 assists), including five in two games this term.
● West Ham’s Saïd Benrahma has been involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League games (3 goals, 4 assists), after being involved in just four in his first 25 appearances in the competition. Benrahma and teammate Michail Antonio have become the first ever players to both score and assist a goal in both of their side’s opening two games to a Premier League campaign.
LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA
5.30pm What a way to finish a brilliant Saturday! This is the first real big clash of the Premier League season. I know we have had Spurs v Man City and Arsenal v Chelsea already, but Spurs and Arsenal aren’t top class sides anymore. Here we have two sides who believe they are title challengers this season. Both sides have identical records coming into today – two wins from two games, five goals scored. A lot of football pundits are raving about Chelsea, but it is very early days as to whether they can challenge Manchester City. They hammered Arsenal last weekend and should have scored more than two goals, but let’s not get carried away with beating Arsenal – they seem there for the taking these days. Liverpool have also had a very impressive start to the season but against very limited opposition – they created an xG of 2.03 against Norwich and 2.75 against Burnley. I’m really looking forward to this game, we will learn a lot today.
As I have said about a number of games today, it all comes down to the odds. We should have a top class game here, between two fantastic sides. Liverpool are favourites because they have home advantage, but Chelsea look good value to me at 3.0. They have made some excellent summers signings to boost their squad and they did manage to grind out a 1-0 here last season. They seem to be a very exciting side; however I know it’s only been two games! We all know Liverpool are a brilliant side, but they did concede an xG of 1.81 to Norwich suggesting they may still have their issues at the back. The great thing about today is we will find out a lot about both sides, however it’s Chelsea for me at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 3.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivche
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have lost just two of their last 13 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (W6 D5), though one of those defeats was in the most recent such game in March.
● Only Manchester United (12) have won more Premier League away games against Liverpool than Chelsea (7), with the Blues winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
● The home side didn’t lose any of the first 22 Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Chelsea, winning 17 and drawing five. Since then, the home team has won just a further 12 of their 36 such meetings, with the away side winning 15 times in that time.
● Both Liverpool and Chelsea have started the 2021-22 campaign with two wins, two clean sheets and five goals scored. Liverpool have started a top-flight campaign with three wins without conceding twice before (2013-14 and 2018-19), while Chelsea have done so three times (2004-05, 2005-06 and 2010-11).
● Liverpool have fired in the most shots so far in the Premier League this season (46), and have the joint-second highest xG along with Man City (4.3). Meanwhile, Chelsea have faced the fewest shots in their two games (10), and have the lowest xG against (0.6).
● Liverpool have won their last seven Premier League games, winning each of the last four without conceding and while scoring at least twice. On just three occasions has a team won 5+ Premier League games in a row to nil while scoring 2+ goals each time – Chelsea in August 2010 (6), Chelsea in November 2016 (5) and Manchester City in August 2015 (5).
● After losing just one of his first 13 managerial meetings with Chelsea’s Thomas Tuchel in all competitions (W9 D3), Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has lost his last two against his compatriot. Only against three managers has Klopp ever lost 3+ consecutive meetings in his managerial career – Felix Magath (twice, in 2006 and 2010), Thomas Doll (2006) and Thomas Schaaf (2007).
● Diogo Jota has scored in both of Liverpool’s Premier League games so far this season, and could become the fourth player to score in each of the Reds’ first three games to a Premier League campaign after Robbie Fowler (1994-95), Daniel Sturridge (2013-14) and Sadio Mané (2017-18).
● After netting four goals in his first four Premier League appearances against Liverpool, Chelsea striker Romelu Lukaku has scored in just one of his last 11 against the Reds.
● In all competitions, Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has netted seven goals in 17 appearances against Chelsea, with the Senegalese only netting more against Crystal Palace (12) and Aston Villa (8) during his time in England.
