SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League matches – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. After the international break action resumes with Watford v Liverpool at 12.30pm.
WATFORD V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm The Premier League returns after the International Break on Saturday! We have an excellent day of action with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We could easily have some issues with players returning from International duty this weekend, and it’s likely Liverpool will be without Fabinho and Alisson here as they are struggling for time returning from playing for Brazil. Perhaps this is something the Premier League can look at in the future, but how do you make it fair on every club? Although Klopp will be without some players, the market is still expecting a relatively easy win for Liverpool here as they are trading 1.37 at the time of writing.
Liverpool went into the International Break with a 2-2 draw with Manchester City, and in general they have been playing some superb football. By now we all know the score with Liverpool; they have an excellent starting XI when everyone is fit but they will run into trouble when they start getting injuries – probably around the busy Christmas and New Year period. Watford will be reasonably pleased with seven points from seven games, but their underlining numbers are concerning. You can see that they are very limited going forward, and this is obviously going to be a huge issue for them this season. I can really see them struggling in front of goal again today and Liverpool can keep a clean sheet. Both Teams Not To Score is worth backing at 1.95.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatliv
MATCH STATS
● This is the first Premier League meeting between Watford and Liverpool since February 2020, when the Hornets won 3-0 to end the Reds’ club record 44-game unbeaten league run, and their joint Premier League record 18-game winning streak.
● Liverpool’s 0-3 loss against Watford last time out ended an eight-game unbeaten league run against the Hornets (W7 D1) – they’ve never lost back-to-back league games against the Hertfordshire side before.
● Six of the seven Premier League meetings between Watford and Liverpool at Vicarage Road have seen at least one team score three goals, with Watford doing so on three occasions and Liverpool four (includes a 3-3 draw in August 2017).
● Watford have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League games, since beating Liverpool 3-0 in February 2020. Only twice have they had a longer run without a clean sheet in the competition – 20 games in 1999-00, and 19 games in 2019.
● After losing six of seven Premier League games between February and March, Liverpool are now unbeaten in their last 17 in the top-flight (W12 D5). The Reds could also become the first ever English top-flight side to score 3+ goals in seven consecutive away games in all competitions.
● New Watford manager Claudio Ranieri has won four of his five Premier League home games against Liverpool, losing the other. The Italian has the highest home win rate against the Reds in Premier League history (80% – min. 5 meetings).
● The last four managers to face Liverpool in their first game in charge of a club in the Premier League have all lost – Manuel Pellegrini (West Ham, 2018), Daniel Farke (Norwich, 2019), Nigel Pearson (Watford, 2019) and Marcelo Bielsa (Leeds, 2020). The last manager to win such a game was Craig Shakespeare – Claudio Ranieri’s successor at Leicester City in 2017.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has eight goals in his six Premier League appearances against Watford, including his first ever goal for the Reds (August 2017) and his first ever Premier League hat-trick (March 2018).
● Mohamed Salah has scored in each of his last seven appearances in all competitions for Liverpool – he’s never scored in eight consecutive matches in his career within the big five European leagues.
● Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored 99 Premier League goals. As well as potentially becoming just the third African player to reach 100 in the competition (after Didier Drogba and Mohamed Salah), Mané could be just the third player to score 100+ Premier League goals without any of them being penalties, after Les Ferdinand (149) and Emile Heskey (110).
ASTON VILLA V WOLVES
3pm This game is one of my biggest bets of the day. When I clicked into the market here I couldn’t believe the price of Aston Villa. They look very short at 2.26 against a Wolves side who have been playing some very impressive football this season without results. Looking at the table, Aston Villa are two spots ahead of Wolves and one point ahead – but their performances have been night and day. A better reflection of form is the xG slope table showing how teams are performing on xG. Wolves are sitting in fourth position on that table before the weekends fixtures start with Aston Villa dropping one place to 11th. Villa have grinded out a few results this season which is to their credit, but they just aren’t creating the same volume of chances now Jack Grealish is gone.
If you were to pick holes with Wolves, you can easily say that they haven’t been taking their chances. This is true, but they are creating so much the tide has to turn at some point. They have been the most unlucky side in the Premier League this season. They created an xG of 1.66 to 0.55 when losing 1-0 to Leicester, created more chances when losing 1-0 to Spurs and created an xG of 2.55 to 0.86 when losing 1-0 to Manchester United too! Since then, apart from a blip against Brentford who are also playing well, they have started to win games and I expect a very close game here. I just can’t have Villa at the odds – I felt we’d see a very even market, not Villa at 2.26. I’m very happy to lay those odds.
The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAstwol
MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last seven home league games against Wolves (D4 L2), winning 4-1 in a Championship match in March 2018.
● Wolves have won four of their last seven league meetings with Aston Villa (D1 L2), more than they had in their previous 27 against the Villans (W3 D10 L14).
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2), with the Villans last having a longer run without defeat at home in the top-flight between April and October 2011 (8 games).
● Wolves have won three of their last four Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 in the competition. They’re looking for three consecutive top-flight wins for the first time since June 2020, the third game of which was a 1-0 victory at Villa Park.
● Wolves are looking to secure three consecutive away league wins for the first time since June 2020, while the last time they won three in a row on the road without conceding in the top-flight was back in March 1960.
● Wolves have scored six goals fewer than their expected goals total would suggest, giving them the biggest negative difference between goals scored (5) and xG (11) in the competition this term.
● Both Aston Villa (8/10) and Wolves (4/5) have scored 80% of their Premier League goals this season in the second half of games, with only Crystal Palace netting a higher share after the interval (88%). However, Wolves have conceded fewer goals after half-time than any other Premier League side this term (1).
● Aston Villa keeper Emiliano Martínez has kept a clean sheet in all three of his Premier League games against Wolves. They’re the side he’s started against the most in the competition with a 100% clean sheet record.
● Wolves’ Trincão has the highest expected goals total of any player yet to score in the Premier League this season (2.4), with the Portuguese registering 15 shots without success so far (7 on target).
● In his first five Premier League games this season, Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez had 14 shots and 15 chances created, but no goals or assists to his name. However, the Mexican has now been involved in each of Wolves’ last three league goals, scoring once (3 shots) and assisting twice (4 chances created).
LEICESTER V MANCHESTER UNITED
3pm I’m surprised to see this fixture kicking off at 3pm because it’s my highlight of the day! I know we have Liverpool and Chelsea as the TV games today, but this is a fascinating fixture. Both managers are under pressure, with the wheels coming off Manchester United in recent weeks with a loss against Aston Villa and a draw against Everton. Both games came at Old Trafford, and although they deserved to win against Aston Villa, they can’t really complain about the draw against Everton. United are now in a position where they have a “title challenging” squad for the first time in years, but they are battling for a Top Four finish. Is that the managers fault? How much will the board back Ole if results continue to be poor? Say what you like about Manchester United, it’s never dull!
Although Brendan Rodgers isn’t under pressure in the media like Solskjaer, Leicester have started the season incredibly poorly. They find themselves down in 13th, and after just missing out on Champions League football on the run-in for the last two seasons, it looks like they could easily miss out on European football altogether this season. I have been a layer of Leicester in recent weeks because their underlining numbers have been very poor – you can clearly see they just aren’t playing good football. Crystal Palace created more than them in the 2-2 draw before the International break, and even in their two wins this season they were very lucky against Wolves and somewhat lucky against Norwich. I know United have their own issues, but at least they are creating a lot of chances. A fascinating game to watch, and United are worth backing at 2.18.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Leicester at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeimun
MATCH STATS
● Leicester won their last league meeting with Manchester United 2-1 in May – they’ve not won consecutive league games against the Red Devils since September 1973.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their 15 Premier League away games against Leicester (W9 D5), going down 5-3 in September 2014 under Louis van Gaal. However, they did lose 3-1 at the King Power Stadium in the FA Cup last season.
● Leicester are looking to win three consecutive meetings with Manchester United in all competitions for the first time since November 1901.
● Leicester are winless in four Premier League games (D2 L2), last having a longer winless run in the competition in their final six games under Claude Puel in February 2019 (D1 L5).
● Leicester have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 Premier League games (1-0 vs Wolves on MD1), while the Foxes could concede 2+ goals in four straight games in the competition for the first time since December 2017.
● Manchester United are looking to extend their record unbeaten away run in the league to 30 games (W19 D10). The Red Devils haven’t conceded more than once in any of their last 15 on the road (7 conceded in total), their longest such run in league football.
● Cristiano Ronaldo’s only previous appearance against Leicester in his career was in a 1-0 win for Man Utd at Old Trafford in April 2004 (Gary Neville scoring the winner). The Foxes would be the 120th different opponent Ronaldo has scored against in his club career if he finds the net here.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances – the only player older than Vardy will be on the day of this game (34y 278d) in Premier League history to score in four consecutive appearances is Gary McAllister in May 2001 for Liverpool (36y 127d).
● Man Utd’s Jesse Lingard has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Leicester (3 goals, 3 assists). Against no side has he been involved in more goals in the competition (also 6 vs Arsenal).
● Manchester United have the player with the most overall chances created (Bruno Fernandes, 23), the most chances created from set plays (Luke Shaw, 11) and the most assists (Paul Pogba, 7) in the Premier League so far this season.
MANCHESTER CITY V BURNLEY
3pm When you’ve had a poor start to the season but put together three games undefeated before the International Break, the side fixture you want to see when returning is Manchester City away! It’s hard to see anything bar a routine home win here for City, and they are trading one of the shortest prices this weekend from the major leagues in Europe – you won’t see many teams shorter than 1.14 this weekend! Although Burnley will start the weekend in the bottom three, they are showing some signs of promise in my opinion. They are creating more chances, and that will keep them up this season if it continues. The xG table puts them up in mid-table above the likes of Arsenal, Leicester and Spurs. Burnley’s problem in the past was they didn’t create much they had to grind out games, but they seem to be improving in that department.
Of course when you look at today’s fixture, anything is a bonus here. It’s highly likely this will be one way traffic and Burnley won’t see much of the ball today. City could be without some players returning from International duty, but their squad is so strong that’s unlikely to make much difference. Although City went into the International Break without a win in two games, they were unlucky to lose against PSG in the Champions League and they have been playing incredible football this season. They will win here, and they can cover the handicap too. I like City -2 goals on the Asian handicap, with stakes void if they win by exactly two which is a nice buffer to have.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -2 goals Asian Handicap to beat Burnley at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMcibur
MATCH STATS
● Man City’s last four home games against Burnley in all competitions have finished 5-0 to the Citizens. No team in English football has ever won 5+ home games in a row against an opponent by 5+ goals before.
● Burnley have lost each of their last eight meetings with Man City in all competitions by an aggregate score of 30-1.
● Man City have taken 28 points from their last 30 available against Burnley in the Premier League (W9 D1), since losing 1-0 at Turf Moor in March 2015.
● After conceding twice in four consecutive home league games towards the end of last season, Man City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four at the Etihad, winning three of those games 5-0. However, they did fail to score in their last home league match, last failing to find the net in consecutive Premier League home games in November 2010 (3 in a row).
● Burnley are winless in their last 10 league games (D3 L7), the longest current run without a win in the top four tiers of English football. However, each of their last four Premier League victories have come away from home.
● No team has conceded fewer goals in the Premier League this season than Man City (3), with all three of their goals conceded coming in the second half of games. Indeed, the Citizens have also faced fewer shots (42), fewer shots on target (10) and have the lowest xG against total (4) in the competition this term.
● No side has used fewer players in the Premier League so far this season than Burnley (18), while the Clarets also have the highest average starting XI age in the competition this term (29 years and 39 days).
● Burnley’s Sean Dyche could become just the second manager to win away against three different clubs who were reigning Premier League champions, after Sir Alex Ferguson (Blackburn, Arsenal and Man City). Dyche led the Clarets to victory against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in 2017-18, and against Liverpool at Anfield last season.
● Riyad Mahrez has scored more Premier League goals against Burnley than he has vs any other side in the competition (8). Seven of these eight goals have been in five games with Manchester City, including a hat-trick in this exact fixture last season.
● Gabriel Jesus has been involved in six goals in his six Premier League starts for Man City this season (2 goals, 4 assists), with his four assists as many as he managed in 29 appearances in the competition last season.
NORWICH V BRIGHTON
3pm In seasons past, this would be a big game for Brighton but they have finally turned a corner with their results. They have always played some very impressive football in recent times, but results haven’t gone their way and they’ve ended up in relegation battles – now finally the results have started to come since their strong finish to last season, and they start the weekend sitting in sixth in the table. Norwich, on the other hand, are slap bang in a relegation battle and they really need a win soon. They are nailed to the bottom at the moment, and with Newcastle being taken over it’s unlikely the Geordies will stay there for long too – that leaves them in huge trouble and to be honest it’s hard to find three sides worse than them this season.
You can see why Norwich are trading so short to go back down this season, and they won’t shake that “up-and-down” tag for a while yet! Remarkably they looked like such a good side in the Championship last season, but they just can’t cope with the standard in the Premier League. Brighton will see this as an excellent opportunity for another three points, and given they way they are playing with confidence this season they should win. Brighton should have beaten Arsenal prior to the International Break, holding the Gunners to an xG of just 0.43 – I’m surprised to see Brighton as big as 2.2 here, and they should out score this Norwich side given how many chances Norwich concede.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Norwich at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorbri
MATCH STATS
● Norwich lost both Premier League meetings with Brighton when they last met in 2019-20, having lost just two of their previous 13 league meetings with the Seagulls (W9 D2).
● Brighton won 1-0 at Carrow Road in their last away game against Norwich – they’ve not won back-to-back league visits to the Canaries since October 1926, when the sides competed in the Third Division South.
● Norwich’s goalless draw against Burnley last time out ended a 16-game losing streak in the Premier League for the Canaries. They’ve not kept back-to-back clean sheets in the competition since March 2016.
● Norwich have failed to score more than once in any of their last 25 Premier League matches, netting just seven goals in total in this run. No side has ever had a longer such run in the competition’s history (Sunderland also 25 games between December 2002 and September 2005).
● After drawing 3-3 against Wolves in their first Premier League game of 2021, Brighton haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their last 28 league games. Indeed, of ever-present teams in the top-flight, only Chelsea (21) and Manchester City (23) have conceded fewer goals than Brighton (26) this calendar year.
● Norwich have the fewest goals (2), fewest different goalscorers (1), lowest shot conversion rate (2.8%) and fewest shots on target (17) in the Premier League this season. At the other end, they’ve conceded the joint-most goals (16) and have the second highest xG against figure (13.5) in the competition this term.
● Norwich are the only side yet to take the lead in a Premier League match this season. Indeed, the Canaries haven’t led in any of their last 11 games in the competition, with only Manchester City ever having a longer such run (15 between April and October 1995).
● Norwich defender Ben Gibson has never ended on the winning side in a Premier League match against any of the current 20 teams in the division (P32 D10 L22), with his victories coming against Sunderland (x2), Hull City, Swansea City and Bournemouth. He has played more games against the current teams without winning than any other current top-flight player.
● Leandro Trossard has been involved in all three of Brighton’s Premier League goals against Norwich, with the Belgian scoring two and assisting the other of their three goals against them in 2019-20.
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has only scored more Premier League goals against Aston Villa (5) than he has against Norwich (4), with all four of his strikes against the Canaries coming at a different ground (Old Trafford, Carrow Road, Emirates Stadium and Vicarage Road).
SOUTHAMPTON V LEEDS
3pm We finish the 3pm games with a very interesting affair towards the bottom of the table. This is a massive game for both sides. Southampton have yet to win a game and they are in big danger of getting into a relegation battle now with the Newcastle takeover. At the moment they sit just outside the bottom three with four points, but they need a win soon. Leeds have started the season in terrible form, and they sit just one place above Southampton with six points. Leeds have managed a win, but given how good they were last season they have gone backwards this season. They were talking about challenging for European football at the end of last season, and to be fair I felt they could if they sorted out their issues at the back – the reality is they haven’t and now they aren’t creating as many chances as last season.
Given all the issues Leeds have at the back, if they aren’t in good form going forward they are going to have major issues all season. I try it difficult to get that Gary Neville comment on Sky Sports out of my head when looking at Leeds games, he said “if you’re a striker, you want to play against Leeds” and he’s 100% correct. I’m not surprised to see Southampton as favourites here because Leeds have been very poor this season, but I feel they are about the right price at 2.44. The value bet here is over 2.5 goals at 1.76 which looks at least ten ticks too big. Leeds are always going to give the other side chances and although Southampton haven’t had great results, they are creating chances. I don’t expect a really high quality game here, but I can see a very end-to-end and open game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSoulee
MATCH STATS
● Having won five of their six league meetings with Leeds between 2006 and 2012 (L1), Southampton lost both of their games against the Whites in the Premier League last season.
● Against no team have Leeds won more Premier League games than they have against Southampton (14), with the Whites winning home and away against Saints last term.
● 31 of Leeds’ 35 Premier League goals against Southampton have been scored in the second half of games, including each of the last 13 in a row. Of all teams to have scored 20+ goals against an opponent in the competition, Leeds against Southampton is the highest ratio scored after half-time (89%).
● Southampton remain winless in the Premier League this season (D4 L3) – the only campaign in their history in which they failed to win any of their opening eight league games was 1998-99, when they avoided relegation from the Premier League on the final day of the season.
● Leeds’ last two away league games have finished level (1-1 vs both Burnley and Newcastle), as many draws as they’d had in their previous 52 top-flight away games combined beforehand. They last drew more consecutively on the road in the Premier League in their first six such games in 1998-99.
● Leeds are averaging just one goal-per-game in the Premier League this season (7 goals, 7 games), having averaged 1.6 per game in the competition last term. Indeed, last season they reached seven goals scored after just two Premier League matches.
● Leeds have faced more shots (117) and more shots on target (43) than any other side in the Premier League this season, while they also have the third-highest xG against total in the competition (12.4).
● Leeds have had the fifth-most shots (105) in the Premier League this season, but have the sixth-lowest expected goals total (7.7). Their xG-per-shot of just 0.07 is the lowest in the competition this term.
● Following his red card against Chelsea last time out, this will be the first Premier League game Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has not appeared in since 27th December 2018, a 2-1 home defeat to West Ham. The midfielder had appeared in 102 consecutive Premier League games for the Saints before this.
● Raphinha has had more shots (24), created more chances (14), attempted more dribbles (37) and made more off-the-ball runs (223) than any other Leeds player in the Premier League this season.
BRENTFORD V CHELSEA
5.30pm We finish the day with an interesting clash as Brentford host Chelsea. Brentford started the season as one of the favourites to go down but they have been brilliant. I think it’s safe to say based off what I have seen from them that they won’t be getting relegated this season. That would be a huge success for their xG model, and it will give them more money to improve over the next few years – they’ve have been a remarkable success story so far. They come into this fixture unbeaten in four games in all competitions, and while a lot of casual football fans might see this as an easy win for Chelsea, we know Brentford will give them a very tough game. They were able to hold Liverpool to a 3-3 draw here, and they actually created more than Liverpool.
Chelsea will start today top of the table with Liverpool and Man City’s draw last week, but it’s fair to say they aren’t playing as well as the “big two.” Liverpool absolutely hammered them at Anfield but had to settle for a draw, and then they were totally outplayed by Man City when they had home advantage too. The one thing Chelsea do well however is they rarely slip up against the smaller sides. From that point of view you would suggest they get the job done here, but in my view they are a little too short at 1.64. This Brentford side are fantastic with home advantage, and they will try to create chances too – not just sit back and defend. Chelsea are worth laying at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Brentford at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBreche
MATCH STATS
● Brentford are winless in their last six meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (D1 L5) since a 3-1 away win in February 1939. This is the first league meeting between the sides since a 2-0 win for the Blues in March 1947.
● Chelsea have won their last two meetings with Brentford by a 4-0 scoreline, with both of these fixtures coming in the FA Cup (February 2013 and January 2017).
● Brentford have already drawn with Crystal Palace, and beaten both Arsenal and West Ham this season. They’re the first team in Premier League history to remain unbeaten in each of their first three London derby matches in the competition.
● Chelsea have won each of their last six away London derbies in the Premier League, and could become the first team in English Football League history (top four tiers) to win seven such games in a row.
● Brentford have won seven of their nine top-flight matches against sides starting the day top of the table (L2), with this their first such match since January 1947 (4-1 vs Wolves). The Bees’ win rate of 78% against league leaders is the best of any club in English top-flight history.
● Chelsea have lost just one of their 12 Premier League away games under Thomas Tuchel (W8 D3), having lost four of their last five on the road under Frank Lampard. The Blues have kept six clean sheets in this run, shipping seven goals in total.
● Chelsea have the best shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season (15.3%), as well as the best difference between goals scored (15), and expected goals (11.8 – +3.2). At the other end meanwhile, Chelsea have the best difference between goals conceded (3) and expected goals against (8.6) in the Premier League this term (5.6).
● Chelsea have had more different goalscorers than any other Premier League side so far this season (12, excl. own goals). Only Arsenal in 2009-10 have had more different goalscorers in their first seven games of a Premier League campaign (13).
● Yoane Wissa has scored five goals in his last five appearances in all competitions for Brentford, averaging a goal every 47 minutes for the Bees this season. Of all Premier League players in all competitions this season, only Marcus Forss (37) and Cameron Archer (46) have a better minutes-per-goal rate than the Congolese forward, though neither of those players have scored in the Premier League so far.
● Chelsea’s Timo Werner scored his first goal in 10 Premier League games against Southampton last time out. The German has only scored in consecutive league appearances once for the Blues, doing so in November 2020.
