LINGFIELD WINTER MILLION GO-AHEAD: Winter Million weekend at Lingfield has survived an inspection to Day 1, which features playable races for the rivalry between Daqman and Pricewise of the Racing Post. Current score 21-12 to Daqman.
DAQMAN LIKES TO MAKE THE HEADLINES: Daqman has had 2-2 naps earlier in the week and 2-2 lays. Now check out his nap and Lays Logic under these headlines:
SAVING FOR A RAINY PAY-DAY
KING BETTER THAN TRUE ODDS
A STEADY IMPROVER ON HOLD
IT’ S JUST THE JOB FOR METIER
SAVING FOR A RAINY PAY-DAY
⭕ 12.50 Lingfield Paul Nicholls is expected to start the Winter Million meeting with more pennies from heaven via Rainyday Woman (12.50), who drops back from Listed level after a hat-trick.
She dominated throughout at Taunton and beat Game On For Glory so easily that I cannot see the placings being reversed, and Nurse Susan – regarded at home as ‘something a bit special’ by the Skeltons – may be the main danger.
Nurse Susan, a young Doctor Dino mare, won with plenty in hand at Leicester but is rated alongside Game On For Glory, so both have to improve to give Rainyday Woman a race off level weights this afternoon.
Love Envoi has also landed a hat-trick but over further and this Westerner mare is bred to need up to 3m. She has travelled strongly in her races over 2m 4f or so and cannot be ruled out.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.9 Rainyday Woman
KING BETTER THAN TRUE ODDS
⭕ 1.50 Lingfield Venetia Williams said she wasn’t quite sure of the quality of the race her French import Frero Banbou won at Sandown in March, but the handicapper was certain sure! He whacked the winner nearly a stone.
🤔 LAYS LOGIC Despite defeats in better company since, the seven-year-old remains 10lb higher, and may not be able to give 17lb to Le Ligerien.
There wasn’t much class about the chase he won at Chepstow but he jumped really well out of deep ground and is unexposed with only five chases to his name as a nine-year-old.
One True King improved for each of three starts over fences but his fourth attempt – when I tipped him at Ascot! – was marred by an early blunder. The ‘Twiston’ stable has been out of form lately, which is maybe why One True King is bigger in the market than he should be.
Eclair d’Ainay has to carry top-weight after a 7lb rise for outjumping the favourite at Wetherby over Christmas. Financier has won going right-handed only.
BETDAQ value 7.9 One True King
A STEADY IMPROVER ON HOLD
⭕ 3.00 Lingfield Again, despite that question mark over the Twiston-Davies team, it’s impossible to write off Fantastikas, who hasn’t been out of the frame for nine races in two years now. There’s a form worry about the ground but he is bred for it.
He drops from Grade 2 novice level, where he’s been placed against top-class winners in Threeunderthrufive and L’Homme Presse, after going straight into handicap company for his first chase, which he won easily on today’s course, despite jumping to the right.
Queenohearts has won mares’ novice hurdles at Grade 2 level but, though three times a winner after a break, and a lover of heavy ground, this is a mighty tough debut-chase consignment to take on geldings with experience after a long absence.
Broken Halo won well at Exeter on heavy but may need more time. Hold That Taught was a steady improver until Welsh Grand National company proved beyond him, though he again moved well.
Colonial Dreams has left it late to make his mark over fences , while Bushypark and Midnight River look a few pounds overrated at this stage.
BETDAQ value 5.8 Hold That Taught
IT’S JUST THE JOB FOR METIER
⭕ 3.35 Lingfield The first-day Irish attack is limited to this race, with Emmet Mullins running two lightweights and Sean Doyle saddling his hat-trick horse, Lucky Max, sole scorer for the stable in Ireland this season.
The Wexford trainer won a race at Ayr back in 2018 with his previous stable stalwart, Crosshue Boy (won seven races altogether).
🤔 LAYS LOGIC Lucky Max has been stepped up from 96 to a 132 rating in Ireland but has been handicapped on 136 for this race. Emmet Mullins’ Carrarea has also been hit.
Paul Townend, over here for Energumene at Ascot tomorrow, took an early ticket to ride Carrarea here but the ‘Irish connection’ means that the 119-rated horse at home is set 127 in England today, despite never having won a hurdle race and showing his best form over half a mile further.
Emmet Mullins’ has a 35% strike rate in England but Carrarea’s best form is on good ground.
Metier, hat-trick winner last season, including the Tolworth by 12 lengths, was fourth to Tritonic in a Grade 3 at Ascot last month and loves the mud.
Gowel Road has climbed the ladder nearly 20lb since winning on heavy at Newbury a year ago.
He shrugged off some of these penalties and a rise in trip to 2m 5f when scoring at Cheltenham in November but is another under the Twiston-Davies cloud, unless it blew over in the earlier races.
Three strikes for Hudson De Grugy, two at Sandown and one here at Lingfield, have also seen that one rise nearly a stone.
Hacker Des Places, who needed his run back, and may need this one, too, is an unexposed ex-French mudlark bred for chasing.
He has bottom spot of the first 24 guaranteed a place in the big hurdle at Newbury in February. They include Metier and Hudson de Grugy.
BETDAQ value 3.9 Metier
DAQMAN’S BETS
12.50 Lingfield (win 12 nap)
BET 6pts win RAINYDAY WOMAN
1.50 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win ONE TRUE KING
2.00 Lingfield (win 12 each)
BET 4pts win FANTASTIKAS
BET 2.5pts win HOLD THAT TAUGHT
3.35 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win METIER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
