DAQMAN FINDS HIS METIER: WINNERS! Daqman was back in daring mood yesterday, successfully opposing the Irish pair, Carrarea and Lucky Max, in the big hurdle at the opening of the Lingfield Million weekend to take his Lays Logic total to 6-6. At the same time he shot 23-13 clear of Pricewise with two winning races out of three in their value challenge:
Friday profit on the day: 12.50
WON 11-4 METIER
WON 5-2 FANTASTIKAS
(Lays Logic: 2-2 yesterday. Total now 6-6)
FIRST THE WINNER IF YOU ARE SECOND: Daqman enters into the spirit of the Clarence House clash with another dare, splitting the two hot-pots with a 2-1 place, and it might even win at BETDAQ 16.5. It’s done it before so those offers are huge value. Headlines:
BETDAQ VALUE FLOWS AT 16.5
5.8 BETDAQ OFFERS ARE MAGIC
JONBON STILL LOOKS SUPREME
16.0 PRETTY MUCH OVERPRICED
BETDAQ VALUE FLOWS AT 16.5
He’s an oddball, a firebrand and has the devil in him. Some of the Googled French meanings of Energumene, as many who cast their vote for him are having second thoughts, now he is partying with Shishkin.
The whips are out and the division bell rings in the betting hall, but the don’t-knows are still dithering. It’s a Gray area.
On my right, six chases unbeaten, Shishkin, officially voted 172 in the ratings; on my left, five unbeaten, Energumene, with 171. But Daqman demands a recount.
⭕ 3.35 Ascot (Clarence House Chase) Shishkin beats Greaneteen and gets 174+ at Kempton over Christmas. Energumene beats Janidil in the Punchestown Ryanair (for 173+) last Spring. One behind there again, but officially has improved 3lb since.
Even if these assessments are accurate, races are rarely predicted from slide-rules. I was always taught to take the improver but that has them running close again: officially, Shiskin has improved 10lb in the last year, Energumene 12lb.
On breeding, both are stamina packed. On trainer ability, you wouldn’t want to fault either Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson; on jockeyship, Paul Townend and Nico De Boinville are in their heyday.
Then there’s First Flow, who is 2311 at Ascot. He hasn’t won a Supreme Novices or an Arkle (like Shishkin); an Irish Arkle or a Punchestown Ryanair (like Energumene).
But he did win last year’s Clarence House by seven lengths from the then Champion Chaser, Politologue, and he had 10lb in hand at Huntingdon over the horse Shishkin beat only three lengths at Aintree.
So it is that punters Labour with the facts and figures, and Daqman dares try to tempt hisTory with a very Liberal BETDAQ offer about First Flow. Ok, see if you can do any better! After all, this is a democracy.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 16.5 First Flow (3.0 a place)
5.8 BETDAQ OFFERS ARE MAGIC
⭕ 1.45 Ascot Garry Clermont (BETDAQ 4.6) had three weekend engagements. His Warwick win and his recent placed efforts over shorter suggested that this race would be my choice. It’s Jonjo O’Neill’s choice, too.
Daqman collected when Rock The Kasbah won this in 2016, and I would be interested to see Stellar Magic (5.8 offers) in the line-up. Dual soft-heavy winner last year at this time, and a good run back, second at Haydock last month.
I’ll be surprised if my pair are beaten but there could be an Unexpected Party involved here, too, after Gowel Road boosted his form yesterday.
⭕ 2.20 Ascot Anythingforlove.. but I won’t do that! Back the Jamie Snowden mare, I mean; though she could be a coincidence tribute to Michael Aday, known as Meat Loaf.
Molly Ollys Wishes and Sister Sarah (BETDAQ 3.65) have won at Listed level, and the prize for this race is overegged as a Grade 2.
Both are well capable, and a year younger than Western Victory, who was sold to Emma Lavelle as a potential chaser after winning for Declan Queally at Clonmel.
⭕ 2.55 Ascot Knight In Dubai is 11lb better off with Palmers Hill for a 13–lengths defeat here before Christmas, but Palmers Hills’ winning return at Wetherby has been let down badly.
Lucy Turner takes 7lb off Fanion d’Estruval, who was left behind in high-grade contests won by Allaho, Allmankind, First Flow and Sceau Royal but readily won at today’s level at Newbury.
Phoenix Way was well backed but in rear behind Fanion d’Estruval that day before an Ascot Silver Cup second which was encouraging but the race lacked depth.
BETDAQ value 4.2 Fanion d’Estruval
JONBON STILL LOOKS SUPREME
⭕ 1.25 Haydock (Rossington Main Hurdle) Jonbon goes for a second Grade 2 under a penalty and it may well be a penalty kick!
But we hope it will tell us a bit more about Constitution Hill who was receiving weight when he slammed the favourite, Might I, at Sandown. Might I is getting weight today.
BETDAQ Sportsbook goes 3 Constitution Hill, 4.5 Jonbon for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
⭕ 2.35 Haydock (Peter Marsh Chase) Venetia Williams would normally get a big thankyou from trainers for running Royale Pagaille off 11st 10lb, suppressing the handicap so that everything else carries less than 11st, mostly 10-4 to 10-8.
But she did the same thing last year and Royal Pagaille easily won the race (16 lengths!) despite heavy ground. He is officially rated 7lb higher this year, but can’t be given any more actual weight.
Remastered had every chance at this trip in the Ladbrokes Chase when a faller four out, and himself had top weight of 11-13 when forced to give way to a winner carrying 10-9.
He races off the same mark here but carries 10-7, with the David Pipe stable in form, winning the Somerset National on Thursday.
Empire Steel could go down in history as one of the few to beat the 2022 Gold Cup winner, Protektorat (my forecast) but the runner-up stumbled badly that day at Kelso last Spring.
At about the same time, Lord Du Mesnil was winning the Grand National Trial on today’s course (soft); he’s also won over the CD.
Alnadam was gambled on in the big handicap over shorter at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and steps back up in trip (7th in the Ultima at Cheltenham last March; lost second two out when a shoe came off).
BETDAQ value 4 Royal Pagaille, 5.2 Remastered
16.0 PRETTY MUCH OVERPRICED
⭕ 3.40 Lingfield (Winter Oaks Handicap) Viola improved into this grade in the autumn and won the Winter Oaks trial at Southwell from Alba Rose, Lower Street, Timeless Soul and Virgin Snow.
All of them bar the winner were hanging at some stage in the race but Viola kept on strongly. Lower Street just held on at Kempton (1m 4f) to beat Pretty Sweet but that one is now 7lb better off.
Pretty Sweet has never been out of the frame. Conversely, she has never been to Lingfield and will need some pace on at this trip, but she is clearly overpriced if she can use her stamina.
Umm Hurair has won only at Wolverhampton and, though she scored by more than the two–lengths verdict at the Christmas meeting there, is now a stone worse off with the runner-up, Serenading.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 16.0 win, 4.2 place Pretty Sweet
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Haydock
FORTUNE COOKIE
BET 10pts win JONBON
1.45 Ascot (win 10 each)
BET 2.75pts win GARRY CLERMONT
BET 2pts win STELLAR MAGIC
2.20 Ascot (win 15 nap)
BET 5.5pts win MY SISTER SARAH
2.35 Haydock (win 25)
BET 8pts win ROYAL PAGAILLE
BET 6pts win REMASTERED
2.55 Ascot (win 10)
BET 3pts win FANION D’ESTRUVAL
3.35 Ascot (win 30, place 10)
BET 2pts win and 5pts place FIRST FLOW
3.40 Lingfield (win 20, place 10)
BET 1.4pts win and 3.1pts place PRETTY SWEET
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
