PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The day finishes with WEST HAM v ARSENAL at 4.30pm.
EVERTON V CHELSEA
2pm Another huge Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Every day feels massive at the moment with the title race, top four and relegation battle which is fantastic – hopefully we have another very entertaining afternoon. We kick off the day with the focus on the relegation battle as Everton host Chelsea. As expected, last weekend left Everton under immense pressure – we always knew that Everton had a very tough fixture list to finish the season, but Burnley have really piled on the pressure quickly with wins against Southampton and Wolves. It looked like they were going to suffer a huge setback on Saturday though away to Watford, but two late goals gave them another three points in dramatic fashion. Now Everton find themselves in a terrible position. The problem is clearly their fixture list – beating Chelsea is a lot easier said than done! Given the fixture list, I feel it would have been a big result for Everton to basically stay in the same position this weekend and move onto Leicester and Watford to see can they jump over Burnley again, but that Burnley win against Watford was huge. Burnley have to play Spurs away, Aston Villa twice and Newcastle – I think it will go right to the wire but Burnley are definitely in the box seat now. The pressure on Everton is immense.
The question is are Everton good enough to get a result against Chelsea? The best Everton could do last weekend was basically limit Liverpool to two goals rather than a cricket score, and I feel we’ll see a very similar story here. Chelsea were all over Manchester United on Thursday night and should have won the game only for some Ronaldo magic saving United again. Chelsea have been creating some nice chances recently and when you look at the stats and performances this season from these two there’s only one outcome here. Everton were lucky that Manchester United have been so bad this season that they could pick up a win against them, but I can’t see Chelsea making the same mistakes as United did or playing as badly. Everton have been woeful at the back, and against an in-form Chelsea side there’s only one winner here for me. The 1.76 isn’t quite a Max Bet for me, but it’s a very confident bet – I’d have Chelsea a little shorter than 1.6 here to be honest. It could be another very bad weekend for Everton fans. Such a big club to go down would be a huge blow.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Chelsea to beat Everton at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveChe
MATCH STATS
● Everton have won each of their last three Premier League home games against Chelsea, last winning four consecutively against them at Goodison Park between 1970 and 1973.
● Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in seven of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Everton. Overall, they’ve kept 23 shutouts against the Toffees in the competition, only recording more against Tottenham (27) and Newcastle (26).
● Chelsea have the highest win rate in games played on the first day of a month in Premier League history, winning 30 of their 50 such games (60%). On May 1st specifically, Chelsea have won all four of their Premier League games.
● This is the first time Everton are playing a Premier League game when starting the day in the relegation zone since December 2019 – a 3-1 home win against Chelsea. This is their latest such game (in terms of games played) since April 1999, and a 2-0 win against Coventry (match 33), while it’s the latest in terms of date since the final day of the 1997-98 campaign (1-1 vs Coventry).
● Everton have earned seven points from their last three home games (W2 D1), as many as they had in their previous 10 at Goodison Park (W2 D1 L7). The Toffees have scored just three goals in this current run, netting a 90th minute winner against Newcastle and a 90th minute equaliser against Leicester City.
● Everton have played the most Premier League games on Sundays without winning this season (9 – D1 L8), while Chelsea have played the most on the day without losing so far this term (9 – W6 D3).
● Everton are averaging 3.5 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, while facing on average 4.8 shots on target. Since 2003-04, only in 2017-18 (3.2) have they averaged fewer shots on target, while only in 2003-04 have they faced more (5).
● Everton boss Frank Lampard will be the 10th former Chelsea manager to take charge of a Premier League match against the Blues – only one of the previous nine has won their first such match (D1 L7), with Claudio Ranieri winning 2-1 with Leicester in December 2015.
● Mason Mount scored Chelsea’s goal in their 1-1 draw with Everton in the reverse fixture. The last player to score home and away for the Blues against the Toffees in a single Premier League campaign was Pedro (2016-17), while the last Englishman to do so was Frank Lampard in 2005-06.
● Everton’s Dele Alli has scored five goals in eight Premier League appearances against Chelsea – against no side has he scored more. However, he’s yet to start a league game for the Toffees, with all eight of his appearances coming as a substitute (218 minutes).
TOTTENHAM V LEICESTER
2pm We move from the relegation battle to the top four battle now! We have Spurs and Arsenal both in action this afternoon, and we start with Spurs hosting Leicester. I know Spurs and Arsenal are two pretty average sides that you can’t trust – but it has almost been funny watching them hand each other the advantage in the Top Four race! It started with Spurs having a lot of games in hand and being in an excellent position only to gift Arsenal the advantage with a poor run, then Arsenal lost three in a row and then when Spurs went odds on for fourth they have lost to Brighton and drew with Brentford. It seems nobody wants fourth! However, you have to say now that Arsenal are really in the box seat – they have a two point advantage and time is running out with each passing week. The task for Spurs is pretty simple to be honest – they need to win every game and hope Arsenal slip up somewhere. Personally I can’t wait for the North London Derby in a few weeks, but the race could be over by then because Spurs have to play Liverpool away before that – they won’t pick up points there and if they drop points again here the race could be over by May 12th.
Spurs are lucky in the sense that Leicester are having an average season and they also have a very important game in Europe on Thursday so they might have their eye on that fixture. After all, they can’t achieve anything in the Premier League this season. Last season this would have been a very tricky tie for Spurs, and although Leicester have been bitterly disappointing this season it’s hard to not feel that the 1.45 on Spurs here is simply too short. They were lucky to pick up a 0-0 draw last weekend away to Brentford – Brentford nearly created an xG three times over what Spurs did. They only managed an xG of 0.62 at home to Brighton too, and while it’s clear that Leicester aren’t playing at their best at the moment, I do feel there is value in laying Spurs here at 1.45. I expect a much closer game than those odds suggest and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Leicester win here. Spurs aren’t playing great at the moment, and let’s face it they aren’t a good side under pressure too.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Leicester at 1.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotLei
MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have won seven of their last 10 Premier League games against Leicester (L3), as many as they had in their previous 21 against them in the competition (D5 L9).
● Leicester won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, last winning consecutive away league games against Spurs in October 1999.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2014, Leicester have conceded more league goals against Tottenham than they have versus any other side (36). Tottenham’s 36 goals against Leicester is also the most they have scored against an opponent in that time.
● Leicester were leading until 94:51 against Tottenham in the reverse fixture this season, before Steven Bergwijn’s two goals secured the win for Spurs. It’s the latest a team has been losing a Premier League game before going on to win in the competition’s history.
● Tottenham have lost five Premier League home games this season, having lost six at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last term. Their 11 defeats over these two campaigns is as many as they’d lost at home in their previous four seasons combined, while they last lost six home games in consecutive seasons back in 2002-03/2003-04.
● Leicester have won just one of their last 11 Premier League away games (D4 L6), with that victory coming at Burnley in March. That 2-0 win was also the Foxes’ only away clean sheet in their last 23 league games on the road.
● After scoring in both halves in seven consecutive Premier League games (between 4-0 wins at both Leeds and Aston Villa), Tottenham have failed to even register a shot on target in their last two full matches. Since Opta has detailed shot data (2003-04), no side has ever failed to have a shot on target in three consecutive Premier League games.
● Leicester have dropped 19 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, only losing more in 1999-00 (21), 2003-04 (28) and 2017-18 (20).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 18 goals in 17 appearances against Leicester in all competitions, more than he’s scored against any other opponent in his career. 16 of those goals have come in the Premier League, with only Alan Shearer netting more against a single opponent in the competition (20 vs Leeds United).
● This is Tottenham manager Antonio Conte’s 100th Premier League game in charge; he’s the fourth manager to reach the milestone this season, with each of the previous three managers losing (Ralph Hasenhüttl, Graham Potter and Dean Smith). However, each of the previous three Italian managers to take charge of as many have all won their 100th game (Claudio Ranieri, Roberto Mancini and Carlo Ancelotti).
WEST HAM V ARSENAL
4.30pm We finish the day with a cracker as West Ham host Arsenal. I’m sure every Arsenal fan will be glued to the Spurs result earlier in the day, and if Spurs drop points against Leicester at 2pm then this will be a superb chance to really grab that fourth spot for Arsenal with Spurs having to play Liverpool next. You have to feel that this fixture comes at a fantastic time for Arsenal – they have just had a very tough fixture list but they‘ve beaten Chelsea 4-2 and then Manchester United 3-1. It’s almost “classic Arsenal” after losing to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton – they win when you don’t expect it and lose when you expect them to win! Backing Arsenal away from home always has to come with a wealth warning – as I said prior to the Manchester United game when I was very confident on them winning, they just aren’t a side that you can trust with a Max Bet but they can offer good value at times. I believe this is one of those times too, because West Ham aren’t playing great at the moment and they also have a big Europa League Semi-Final to focus on too at the moment. They have a huge amount of work to do in that fixture after losing the first leg 2-1 at home on Thursday.
West Ham just aren’t winning that many games at the moment, and it’s clear that they haven’t been creating enough chances. In fairness to The Hammers, they put in their best recent display on Thursday night against Eintracht Frankfurt and they were unlucky to lose 2-1. They will be hopeful of turning things around Thursday, and there’s a fair chance that’s where their heads will be for this fixture. Arsenal arrive in peak form – they have been superb beating Chelsea and Manchester United recently. I know the three losses took the headlines before those games, but they weren’t playing too badly. They finished with higher xG figures than Brighton and Southampton when they lost. Backing Arsenal away from home means you have to limit stakes to some degree in my opinion, but the recent West Ham performances, especially in the Premier League, have been very average and they just seem there for the beating at the moment. Arsenal might not have to even be at their best to win here, and it’s worth taking the 1.82 on the away win.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat West Ham at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesArs
MATCH STATS
● West Ham have lost more Premier League games against Arsenal (33) than they have versus any other side in the competition.
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League away games against West Ham (W8 D4), going down 1-0 in January 2019. Overall, at no side have Arsenal won more Premier League away games than their 13 victories at the Hammers.
● Since completing the league double over Arsenal in the 2006-07 campaign, West Ham have won just two of their last 27 Premier League games against the Gunners (D5 L20).
● West Ham are unbeaten in their last six Premier League home games (W4 D2), with the Hammers last having a longer such run between September 2015 and April 2016 (15 games at Upton Park). They’ve also scored in their last 18 home league games, since a 1-0 loss against Everton in May 2021.
● Arsenal have won more Premier League games in May than any other side (50), while the Gunners also have the best win rate in May in the competition (59% – 50/85).
● West Ham have lost four of their last seven Premier League games (W2 D1), as many as they had in their previous 14. However, the Hammers haven’t lost consecutive matches in this run of seven, going down 1-0 at Chelsea last time out.
● After a run of three straight defeats in the Premier League, Arsenal have won their last two, 4-2 at Chelsea and 3-1 at home to Manchester United. The Gunners haven’t won three consecutive league games while scoring at least three goals each time since April 2018 under Arsène Wenger.
● Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has been involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances against West Ham (5 goals, 1 assist). Only against Southampton (7) has he been involved in more league goals for the Gunners.
● Craig Dawson’s red card against Chelsea last time out was West Ham’s 28th Premier League red card in London derbies, more than any other side. Indeed, four of the Hammers’ last six red cards have been against London sides.
● Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has scored a penalty in his last two games, the youngest player ever to score a penalty in consecutive Premier League appearances. The only Arsenal player to score a penalty in three consecutive Premier League appearances is Ian Wright in March 1994.
