1,000 WINS FOR DAQMAN OVER PRICEWISE: A Daqman Saturday double put him on 1,000 winning bets against Pricewise, relying on BETDAQ to get an edge, and counting only races in direct competition with the Racing Post selections. Daqman rang up 999 with Valley Forge and hit the 1,000 with the royal runner, Kings Lynn, both winners at Haydock.
WON 4-1 VALLEY FORGE (BETDAQ 5.3) Nearly there: 999
WON 5-1 KINGS LYNN (BETDAQ 6.3) The 1,000 is landed!
Full details tomorrow
HISTORY MADE WITH GUINEAS HAT-TRICK: It was also a day of history for Charlie Appleby, who became the first man to complete a hat-trick of Guineas winners with different horses: Native Trail took the Irish 2,000 after Coroebus (English 2,000) and Modern Games (French 2,000). Willie Mullins’ Klassical Dream (2nd 37-10) was beaten seven lengths in the French champion long-distance hurdle.
PURPLEPAY DAY IN 1,000 GUINEAS
⭕ 3.45 The Curragh (Irish 1,000 Guineas) FORM and STATS in Daqman Thursday.
Once fillies get the the sun on their backs, they can improve 7lb just walking round the paddock! That’s how a fresh-faced young Daqman was warned by pro-punter Alec Bird against betting in a race of lightly-raced three-year-olds.
We have plenty of those today. Eight of the Irish 1,000 Guineas field have had only four starts or fewer; three of them haven’t been seen this season and could have grown or gone backwards over the winter; six won first run back; seven have ratings which correspond to previous winners.
After Native Trail franked the Newmarket 2,000 form yesterday, the Curragh betting suggests that the Irish 1,000 will also go the way of the English version.
Tuesday was third at Newmarket in only the third race of her career, just two lengths off Cachet, who was beaten a head for the French equivalent last Sunday.
But there are improvers standing in line, some of them on a par, or very close to, the 109 rating she has earned.
Mise En Scene In fact, five of the last six winners of this race had had four or more starts and Mise En Scene (also on 109) finished closer to Cachet last season than Tuesday did this.
Purplepay (five runs) was last year almost six lengths equivalent better than Daisy Maisy who pipped Cachet in the Longchamp 1,000, ‘very readily’, though that was on very soft ground.
Homeless Songs won the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial, receiving 3lb from the runner-up, Agartha, who is a benchmark to the filly form. Hampered early on when beaten by History.
Ok, but which of Tuesday’s rivals is likely to improve? Well, you can make a case for Purplepay, grand-daughter of the mighty Zarkava, who improved from Guineas success (heavy) to win the French Oaks (good) and the Arc (good to soft).
Purplepay’s dam’s sire, Lawman, stepped up from Group 3 in the Spring to win the French Derby (good to soft).
From the influence of both Zarkava and Lawman, we can also assume that Purplepay does not need the soft ground that she raced on in France for Cedric Rossi.
She has been prepared for this by her new trainer, William Haggas, who is in tremendous form (currently 15-34 for a 44% strike rate). He has just won top races with two fillies, Sense Of Duty and Sea Silk Road.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 9.0 Purplepay
STATE FIRST THE REST NOWHERE
⭕ 2.40 The Curragh (Tattersalls Gold Cup) A high-quality contest, with six players rated between 115 and 120, including last year’s winner and short-head second, Helvic Dream and Broome.
The cast also includes the 2021 Irish 2,000 Guineas winner, Mac Swiney, the evergreen Lord North, who has landed a Group-1 double in Dubai this Spring, and Alenquer, who beat Derby winner, Adayar, in the Sandown Classic Trial.
But, if you’re seeking an improver, look no further than State Of Rest, fresh from a hat-trick covering three countries in eight months globetrotting and worth well over £2million.
Joseph O’Brien’s son of Starspangledbanner appropriately won the Saratoga Derby in America last August (£390,510), the Cox Plate in Australia in October (£1,713,483) and, on the first of this month, the Prix Ganay (£144,050) at Longchamp in Paris.
Another Group-1 win here and ITV Racing will go ashen-faced in reverence and maybe dare speak of him in the same breath as Baaeed.
Yesterday they had to send out to find the meaning of ‘perspicacious’ (I enjoyed the irony so much I switched to ITV+ so I could watch it again).
Today we will have to face listening to their pronunciation in the 1,000 Guineas of Mise En Scene (they’ve all agreed that it’s a colony of invisible mice called Meece unSeen).
BETDAQ value 3.5 State Of Rest
ADDITIONAL BET AT THE CURRAGH
⭕ 4.20 The Curragh Paddy Twomey is currently trainer to follow, with three winners from his last five runners and, on the basis that a change of stables brings a horse back to form, his new recruit Erosandpsyche is worth a bet.
Erosandpsyche was highly tried in Listed and a Group 2 before being gelded.
His jockey, Billy Lee, excelled in getting New Energy into second spot in the Irish 2,000 Guineas behind Native Trail. A ride like that is worth a fortune to breeders.
The outside draws over 6f yesterday – high and low – shared the spoils and, with Erosandpsyche in 14, I’ll take an Additional bet out of gate 4.
Additional seldom runs a bad race, is down the handicap and, after his first run in Ireland for a new yard, has Colin Keane booked to make the difference this afternoon.
BETDAQ value 9.0 Erosandpsyche and Additional.
HE’S A DARK HORSE FOR BUICK
⭕ 2.30 Nottingham Huge, unfathomable fields totalling 116 horses abound at York, so I’m looking to Nottingham and Fakenham to provide home bets.
This class 2 is a standout on quality, and Dark Shift (William Buick) – a course winner here – ran well for a long way from the ‘wrong’ side in the Victoria Cup at Ascot around two weeks back, and could be worth following.
Caradoc hasn’t won since 2019, while Dubai Icon and Dubai Mirage look well exposed in long careers at Meydan.
⭕ 2.50 Fakenham Clive Cox, Jim Goldie and Alan King were all in top form with doubles or more yesterday, and Kingy could help us out with Sweet Moon (2.50 Fakenham).
The favourite, Barenboim, is a 10-race maiden, Flat and Jumps, and it’s 13 down without a strike in the case of Pure Bubbles, while Cityzen Serg has scored only on AW and Jubilee Gold has failed to finish in four of his six starts.
Sweet Moon, from the winners nursery of Guillaume Macaire, led until four out over 2m 5f on her first start in England, and I believe she can make all here, dropped back to 2m, getting between 7lb and 13lb from the geldings.
BETDAQ value Sweet Moon a bargain at 3.9
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.30 Nottingham (win 10)
BET 5pts win DARK SHIFT
2.40 The Curragh (win 10)
BET 4pts win STATE OF REST
2.50 Fakenham (win 15, nap)
BET 5pts win SWEET MOON
3.45 The Curragh (win-50 bull’s-eye bet, win 12)
BET 6pts win PURPLEPAY
BET 4pts win TUESDAY
4.20 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win ADDITIONAL
BET 2.5pts win EROSANDPSYCHE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
