BETDAQ 5.9 FOR NAPS HAT-TRICK: Daqman has started the week with back-to-back naps. And tries to land the hat-trick at Hexham today at 5.9 on BETDAQ this morning.
WON 7-4 KING OF THE SOUTH (Tuesday nap)
WON 4-6 TIMEFORATUNE (Monday nap)
ASCOT HURDLE GUIDE: Is it easy for Constitution Hill? How do favourites fare in the race? Daqman checks out the probables.
CONSTITUTION TOP OF THE HILL
BIG-RACE GUIDE: What do you need to back the favourite? A strong constitution; certainly on Saturday in the Ascot Hurdle.
Favourites win often but, just when you think it’s safe to roll up on them, one of the most likely winners falls by the wayside.
Nicky Henderson has won the Ascot Hurdle with two market leaders in the decade, Oscar Whisky (won 8-15) and last year Buzz (won evens). But he’s also trained two of five hot-priced losers. And one of Saturday’s runners, Goshen, is already a beaten favourite in the race.
Brother Tedd (13-8, Philip Hobbs) was turned over by Rock On Ruby in 2015; and Call Me Lord (6-4, Henderson) by If The Cap Fits (won 3-1) in 2019.
In 2017, Defi Du Seuil (10-11, Hobbs) and L’Ami Serge (7-2, Henderson) were stopped by Lil Rockerfeller in a five-horse affair; and in 2010 Goshen (6-4, Gary Moore) was last of 10 in the race won by Song For Someone (6-1).
⭕ 2.40 Ascot, Saturday (Ascot Hurdle) STATS: Six favourites win out of 10.
CONSTITUTION HILL Ran away with his three novice hurdles by a grand total of 48 lengths, including the Tolworth and the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham.
Still in the Fighting Fifth on Saturday week but the Champion Hurdle favourite would have to take on former champion hurdler, Epatante, at Newcastle.
BREWINUPASTORM Beat the dual winner of this, If The Cap Fits, when winning at Aintree a year ago. Unseated first when odds-on to beat Dashel Drasher at Aintree earlier this month. Has had wind surgery x 2.
GOSHEN His 22-lengths Kingwell win at Wincanton seems a long time ago (February, 2021).
He won the same race in the Spring but before and after has been unruly and unreliable, which his owner euphemistically describes as being ‘a bull of a horse who just wants to go!’
THEATRE GLORY The Henderson second string is five out of six, but currently only a 137 five-year-old, 33lb behind Constitution Hill and receiving just 8b under the conditions of the race.
GOOD RISK AT ALL Nine-lengths winner of a handicap here at Ascot in April. Found out at Graded level after, but back to form in heavy-ground handicap at Carlisle last month.
SAINT SAM Hasn’t really gone on from second in big-field Fred Winter hurdle at the 2021 Cheltenham festival. Has raced only in chases this year, winning at Fairyhouse in January.
CALL ME LORD A third Henderson hopeful who stays well; fifth in the Liverpool Hurdle last year; third in the Lanzarote in January. Won his Pertemps qualifier at Kempton this month.
FOR PLEASURE Not gone on since taking the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham two years back. Won a novice chase last December (two finished).
UHTRED Smart Downpatrick double in August for Joseph O’Brien, one a hurdle and one a chase, but pulled up then tailed off in two tries for Dan Skelton.
PRINCE CAN BE KING FOR A DAY
⭕ 2.23 Hexham A chase of nearly 4m in soft ground has Diegos Way fronting the market for Irish trainer Cian Michael Collins, who is 2-4 in England.
One of those strikes was with Diegos Way at Bangor last month, a comfortable win despite some awkward jumping, but costly with it; he’s 12lb higher today.
Dee Star, third in this last year, has won a couple of small-field races, not punished much for it but facing soft ground on a track he doesn’t particularly like. Dee Star on soft: 02P204U3P. Dee Star at Hexham: 030302.
Prince Dundee was 10 lengths in front of him, second, last year, yet is 5lb better off, though he hasn’t been out of the frame since.
Storm Lorenzo is 2131 still standing at Hexham, but his best form is on good to soft at worst, and he reverts to cheekpieces after the first-time visor failed to get him home the last day; he blundered three out when third in the Durham National (3m 5f) at Sedgefield.
BETDAQ value 5.9 Prince Dundee
BETDAQ 13.5 FOR STAR STABLE
⭕ 3.15 Warwick Favourites have won every one of these veterans’ chases, 75% 10-year-olds. It’s a strong race this year, even in the absence of Lostintranslation.
Snow Leopardess won the Becher Chase last December and followed up with a 12-lengths Listed win at Exeter.
She’s also scored after a long break but is said not to be as fit as when starting out last year and this race is to put an edge on her for a Becher repeat.
The £100,000 buy Celebre D’Allen was completing a hat-trick when he won here in February, and was fifth in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival; overall rise 20lb.
But trainer Philip Hobbs saw all that as late progress and, for the first time ever under Hobbs or his previous yard in France, the 10-year-old steps up to 3m, with the dam’s side of his pedigree chase and cross-country winners up to 3m1f and even 4m 4f.
The handicapper has suddenly dropped Ramses De Teillee 7lb, which is 12lb lower than when he beat Yala Enki in a Grade 3 at Cheltenham two years ago (3m 3f soft).
But he was 40 lengths behind the same horse in January and this is to get him qualified for the Veterans’ Chase Final.
Calipso Collonges won first time out last season off today’s mark and Lewis Stones’ claim drops him to 10 stone, getting a stone from most of them here.
Kim Bailey, who produced Wandrin Star to win the Sandown leg of this veterans’ series 12 months ago (Gwencily Berbas third), will be glad of the rain.
Bailey saddled Does He Know to win a big handicap on the third day of the Cheltenham autumn meeting on Sunday.
De Rasher Counter is in Saturday week’s Newbury Gold Cup, which he won three years back, but goes for this as he is already at peak. Cepage (stable out of form) and Cobolobo have been struggling since success in 2020.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 2.9 Celebre D’Allen and 13.5 Wandrin Star are nicely placed in the handicap for stables in form.
NAP HAND LOOKS THROWN IN
⭕ 7.00 Kempton Nap Hand was well overpriced at 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning, as a winner when fresh at Salisbury, beating a subsequent dual winner.
The one-two when he was fourth on the July Course are both now rated over 100, while naughty-boy Nap Hand is dossing off 78.
The theory is good: give Nap Hand the gelding op to sort his head out, and campaign him with his featherweight on the winter AW circuit. The 9.8 is worth testing the theory.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.23 Hexham (win 20, nap)
BET 4pts win PRINCE DUNDEE
3.15 Warwick (win 50, win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4pts win WANDRIN STAR
BET 5pts win CELEBRE D’ALLEN
7.00 Kempton (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win NAP HAND
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