PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s Premier League match between LEEDS v MAN CITY with a match preview, FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We have our final Premier League fixture in Matchday 16 on Wednesday as Leeds host Manchester City on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. This should be a fascinating game and you’d assume we get plenty of entertainment as both sides like to play an open game. Manchester City went into the World Cup five points behind Arsenal at the top of the table after losing their final fixture to Brighton. That was a massive shock, and definitely opened up the title race. I think it would have got more reaction if we didn’t break for the World Cup so quickly after the last round of games.
I know Manchester City remained the odds on favourites after that – they were trading 1.5 to win the Premier League throughout the World Cup – but that loss definitely puts them under immense pressure. They basically can’t afford another slip up, and maybe the market is underestimating Arsenal. They will be fully expected to win this fixture though, and they are trading as short as 1.33 at the time of writing. That’s the joint lowest price of Matchday 16 along with Manchester United who have home advantage in their game. For all that City have started a lot of games at very short odds, they have dropped plenty of points this season. It’s come against sides you wouldn’t expect too – Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brentford – along with Liverpool away which can be forgiven!
As you would expect, the overall stats from Manchester City are very impressive. They are creating an average xG of 2.2 per Premier League game and only conceding 1.1. Most of their problems have come from the fact that they like to play an open game with no fear – they play in a “we’ll score more than you” style; but sometimes that’s just not going to work out. Although they generally create a lot of chances – they are always open to giving away a counter attack goal, a perfect example was the Brentford winner. This is an area that Leeds could easily take advantage of, if they are good enough.
Leeds also like to play an exceptionally open game. You can easily see that when you look at their stats – they are creating an average xG of 1.6 per game while conceding 1.7. Most Leeds games are entertaining, even if they don’t take their chances. I would expect Manchester City to win here, but the 1.33 feels a little short away from home. It’s also worth mentioning that Manchester City players played the most minutes in the World Cup from the Premier League players – that’s to be expected given the quality of their side, they are all superstars really, but we might see that have an impact at some stage.
I feel the best play here is look for some value in the side markets. The market is expecting plenty of goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.44. That’s pretty understandable given the stats from both sides, and it’s hard to see anything other than a very open game. Over 3.5 goals is tempting at 2.09 but I feel Both Teams To Score is a better option at 1.83. Leeds have created enough this season to suggest they can score here, and City usually play an exceptionally open game when they take a 2-0 or 3-0 lead. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see plenty of action at both ends of the pitch.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeMan
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Having remained unbeaten against Man City in their first season back in the Premier League in 2020-21 (W1 D1), Leeds lost both meetings with the Citizens last term by an aggregate score of 11-0.
● Man City won this exact fixture 4-0 in April last season, last winning back-to-back away league games against Leeds in September 2000.
● Leeds haven’t won any of their last seven Premier League home games against reigning champions (D2 L5), since a 1-0 victory over Arsenal in May 1999.
● Leeds lost their final home league game of 2021, going down 4-1 against Arsenal. They haven’t lost their last game at Elland Road in consecutive calendar years since 2000/2001 (against Aston Villa and Newcastle).
● Having lost against Brentford in their last Premier League game before the World Cup break, Manchester City are looking to avoid losing consecutive league games for the first time since December 2018.
● Manchester City have scored more goals than any other Premier League side this season (40), while with 14 goals conceded their games have also seen more goals than any other sides’ (54). Meanwhile, Leeds’ last four Premier League games have produced a total of 22 goals, at an average of 5.5 per game.
● Both Rodrigo and Crysencio Summerville have scored in each of Leeds’ last four Premier League games, the first pair of players to ever score in four consecutive games for a club in the competition. Just three different players have scored in five in a row for the Whites in the Premier League – Rod Wallace (December 1993), Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (December 1998) and Mark Viduka twice (April 2003, August 2003).
● Man City’s Phil Foden has been involved in seven goals in his last five Premier League starts, scoring six and assisting one. However, just one of his 10 goal involvements overall this season has come away from home (goal vs Wolves at Molineux).
● Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has the highest expected goals total of any player yet to score in the Premier League so far this season (4.1).
● Leeds’ midfielder Brenden Aaronson has made more pressures (closing down the team/player in possession) than any other player in the Premier League this season (442). On the other hand, Man City’s Rodri has been pressured more often than any other player (429).
