WILLIE MULLINS GOES FOR THE MAXIMUM: Terrestrial TV goes to Leicester and Leopardstown today, where it will be heavy going picking winners! Willie Mullins, who had six winners out of seven at Leopardstown yesterday, saddles seven short-priced favourites at Leopardstown and Limerick today. One bookie reports a coincidence double, Maxxum (1.10) and I Am Maximus (2.55).
STICK WITH THE VALUE IN BETDAQ OFFERS: Says Daqman: ‘Sharpen your pin and stick to BETDAQ value.’ He has bets at 29.0, 12.5, 8.9 and 6.3 and 3.75 the nap. He leads Pricewise 7-4.
CONSISTENT PERCY RATES A PUNT
⭕ 1.10 Leopardstown (Pertemps Network Hurdle) LAYS LOGIC: I ignored the stats to my cost yesterday, and I hope you stuck to my preview instead of my verdict on the Welsh Grand National when I looked to the quality stayers like The Big Dog to carry the weight.
The Big Breakaway and The Big Dog really did big it out to take second and third off 11st 13lb and 12st.
But the stats now record 22 winners out of the last 25 have carried less than 11st, with The Two Amigos the hero yesterday off 10st 1lb under a fine ride by David Prichard.
This opening 3m hurdle is a pinstickers’ race in the mud unless you again follow the stats, which say there have been no winners in the decade – not a one – carrying more than 10st 13lb.
That theoretically knocks out more than 40% of the field but some of those among the lightweights are being punished in the ratings and forced to try this higher class.
FORM: Maxxum, for example, has been hiked 20lb all told after excellent autumn efforts in big fields but can he build on the potential in this softer ground?
On the other hand, Perceval Legallois is 33122 in completed staying races this year but only 7lb higher.
I shall plug my ears when ITV’s Big Ed gives us his pronunciation and translation.
Yesterday his rendition of Fils De Roi (king’s son) was Filles De Roi (the king’s daughters), though I’m sure he would perfectly recall the timbre of 2,000 Guineas winner Mon Fils.
Why not have a teach-in by Mick Fitzgerald on all the tricky names on the card? A Plus Tard, monsieur Mick; a plus tard!
Betdaq Betting Exchange: 12.5 Perceval Legallois
IT COULD BE ANOTHER HOME WIN
⭕ 1.45 Leopardstown (Christmas Hurdle) LAYS LOGIC: Flooring Porter uses this as his stepping-stone to Cheltenham.
He won it in 2020 then took the stayers’ hurdle at the festival; he was second in 2021 and then won the stayers’ hurdle at the festival.
These performances have kept him on 164 but in amongst them have been some poor efforts, and his three starts as favourite have gone PF2.
Flooring Porter’s stable is currently badly out of form (1-41). He’s won four times after a break but not this time; he was beaten 12 lengths, fourth at Navan in November behind Home On The Lee and Bob Olinger.
FORM: Bob Olinger had won four in a row off a break, three over fences, but was no match for Home By The Lee on his reappearance, put back to hurdles, in that Navan race.
His trainer (currently 2-27) was ‘very disappointed’ when he fluffed his lines at the last for a second successive defeat as favourite, reminiscent of his lack of fluency over fences.
Home By The Lee is priced up as if the result was a fluke but, let’s put it this way, which of the two ‘losers’, Flooring Porter and Bob Olinger, would you prefer to back instead?
BETDAQ value 8.9 Home By The Lee
FORM IS A PLUS FOR CONFLATED
⭕ 2.20 Leopardstown (Savills Chase) This race is regarded in some parts of the Press as turnkey to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Not so.
In the last decade, Bobs Worth was already a Gold Cup winner when he took this race and only A Plus Tard has gone on to glory.
Don Poli, Kemboy, Outlander, Delta Work and Galvin have all proved short of Cheltenham-gold-medal standard.
Three among the previous winners are back for more today, with A Plus Tard under a cloud as an odds-on flop in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock last month, his very first start after taking that gold.
Galvin was also an odds-on failure the last day, fourth in the Down Royal Champion Chase.
And surely the Irish wouldn’t want to see Kemboy take the race at aged 10 going on 11, particularly after 11 defeats in a row.
Conflated could be the answer. He won the Irish Gold Cup in February, beating Minella Indo, who had won the Cheltenham ‘gold’ the previous March in a battle with A Plus Tard.
Unless A Plus Tard can recover his form in one go, Conflated, the stable pick over Galvin on jockey bookings, must be the one today.
A Plus Tard seems to be back to himself, says trainer Henry De Bromhead, but the operative word is ‘seems.’
THERE’S NOTHING LIKE A DAME
⭕ 3.10 Leicester (Silver Fox Chase) What punters have to put up with for the pleasures of greenfield racing.
Leicester is tagged ‘good going’ this morning but I’m told the chase course was good and the hurdles track heavy yesterday (so brownfield racing).
Father and son Jonjo O’Neill, who had a double up yesterday, will be hoping this chase has plenty of cut in the ground for Arrivederci, in sharp contrast to the firm going of his outing here at Leicester three weeks back.
Arrivederci is a ‘hidden horse’; Graded hurdle runner-up on the soft at Ascot but dropped a stone over fences.
Tap Tap Boom has won back-to-back at a low level this autumn, under his 7lb claimer; this is a lot tougher and half a mile further.
In fact, it seems ridiculous that he has to give 19lb to Cheltenham winner Dame De Soir. Our Jet is also given a high starter rating.
Ile De Jersey gets a four-year-olds’ allowance but those she beat at Southwell had very little to recommend them.
BETDAQ value 6.3 Dame De Soir, 29 Arrivederci
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.10 Leopardstown (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.25pts win PERCEVAL LEGALLOIS
1.45 Leopardstown (win 12)
BET 1.5pts win HOME BY THE LEE
2.20 Leopardstown (win 20, nap)
BET 7.25pts win CONFLATED
3.10 Leicester (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 9.2pts win DAME DE SOIR
BET 1.75pts win and place ARRIVEDERCI
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